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BlueNose

Thoughts and Guesses on Shiny Judgement

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Hello Guys

I decided to leave a month ago,i just can't give up the  friendship and miss the happy time in pokemmo.and now i start playing it again. During the month , i thought a lot of  the Shiny Judgment in pokemmo,i  will try my best to express with  my average level  English.

We know shiny judgement is an Binomial Distribution ,shiny or not shiny. And when the probability is very low,we can use Poisson Distribution to simplify the caculation.

Here is shiny formula i think:       

P{X = k}  =   λ^k  *  e^(-λ)  /  k!     

X means Shiny Event  ,   k means the Number of Shiny Events that happened,    λ acutally is Expection = Number * Probability 

Let's  make the formula easy:

Shiny Probability  P{X > 0} = 1 - P{X = 0} = 1 -  e^(-λ) = 1 -  e^(-  Number  *  Probability ),if the number is not large, i think P{X > 0} ≈ P{X = 1}.

As we know ,shiny probability of pokemmo is 1/30,000, so if we hunt 30,000 pokemons ,the Expection = Number * Probaility = 1,that means you are  expected  to meet 1 shiny pokemon, but the theorical probability  is  1 -  e^(-1)  ≈ 63.21%.

 

Here comes my First Viewpoint, Data accumulation is conditional ,Shiny judgement depends on regions.

I guess the system divides all game maps into many areas, and each area has a subsystem to manage, including the shiny judgement. The data calculated in different regions will not be superimposed, but will be computed independently.I witness that Chinese players  organize Shiny Hunter Team many times,they  keep hunting hordes of x5 pokemons together by using berries for an hour in  an area, and after an hour hunting , they change the area whether  shiny event happened.The peak number  of  Shiny Hunter Players is estimated to be 100.

Let's do the caculation,assume :100 players ,2 hordes of x5 pokemons per minute ,keep 60 minutes for an area.

P{X > 0} = 1 - P{X = 0} = 1-e^(- N * P )  ≈ 86%
because of the large numebr ,we can't regard  P{X > 0}  as  P{X = 1}.
P{X>1} = 1 - P{X = 0} - P{X = 1}  ≈ 60%
P{X>2} = 1-  P{X = 0} - P{X = 1} - P{X = 2}  ≈ 33%

P{X>3} = 1-  P{X = 0} - P{X = 1} - P{X = 2}  - P{X=3}  ≈ 15%

Shiny Hunter Team can get 1 or 2 shiny pokemons most time if the members are enough, get 3 very rarely,and get 0 when  a few members in an area for an hour.The actual situation accords with the calculation results.

If the shiny judgment of the whole map is handed over to just 1 system for judgment,So the Shiny Hunter  Team in a short period of time to brush out huge amounts of data to accelerate the shiny judgement, the shiny event must be  in the area of the team? Players in other areas should have equal opportunities. But in fact, shiny event happened quickly  where the team is  , which i guess that the shiny judgement depends on regions (also the  channels). 

 

Here comes my Second Viewpoint ,it's about Helper And Scorer.

First, I want to introduce a concept of my own concept -----Shiny Critical Value,which means the system of the region has been submitted a lot of data leading to a shiny event .Let's assume there will be a shiny event next 100 pokemon hunting.Who will get this shiny pokemon? Of course you hunt more in this 100 you get high probability .But what if the same hunting(or breeding)?Everyone has equal opportunities.Not the player who is most help or the least help(may be a Novice or a passer-by) to make the Shiny Critical Value But the player who is the luckiest that can draw the  shiny chance!

No Wonder there are super lucky guys and super unlucky guys in game,Everyone can be Helper but only one is Scorer.

I cant prove Shiny Critical Value  and It's hard to quantify, maybe you get a shiny pokemon when the probability is 20% or until 90% .The concept  i make my own is for the sake of good narration and it's all my guess.

 

I'm not a professional, so there may be big loopholes.I'm looking forward to game designers' views on my guesses and thoughts.

Thank you for your patience in reading my article. 

 

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5 hours ago, BoltBlades12 said:

So are you implying that if I hunt in groups, that raises the odds of at least one of us getting a shiny?

Let me suppose an unreal example,If hunting 60,000 pokemons there will be 1 shiny pokemon.If you hunt 60,000 by yourself and no other players take part in,the shiny pokemon must be yours.But it really take a lot of time and energy.Organizing  a team to hunt 60,000 pokemons take less time, in other word , it imporve the efficiency and accelerated the process.But only the luckiest player of the team can meet this shiny pokemon.This is what i mention about Helper and Scorer.

 

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This makes mathematical sense, if a large group is hunting it's more likely that a player or two will get shinies. But it doesn't raise your personal odds or anyone else's particularly. So yeah, SRIF

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2 hours ago, Dibz said:

This makes mathematical sense, if a large group is hunting it's more likely that a player or two will get shinies. But it doesn't raise your personal odds or anyone else's particularly. So yeah, SRIF

yeah,obvious, But what i want to know more is that i think data accumulation depends on area,if some players hunt together on like 18 road , and other players hunt together on like 9 road, this case the data accumulation  should be separate calculation  i guess.

And based on this, personally,keeping hunting or breeding in the same area or channel is very important, if you always change your hunting or breeding area,you will be more like a helper but not a scorer.

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1 hour ago, BlueNose said:

yeah,obvious, But what i want to know more is that i think data accumulation depends on area,if some players hunt together on like 18 road , and other players hunt together on like 9 road, this case the data accumulation  should be separate calculation  i guess.

And based on this, personally,keeping hunting or breeding in the same area or channel is very important, if you always change your hunting or breeding area,you will be more like a helper but not a scorer.

Yeah but that depends. Mathematically, you get to decide what your sample's boundaries are. You can count all the people shiny hunting at the same time, or you can count people in an area and/or channel. It's just a collection of odds. Doesn't change anything except the chance of the total sample size to find a shiny. It doesn't matter if you change your location or channel, each encounter has an independent chance of being shiny and nothing influences that. All you did was math where chances vary with sample size. If 1 person spun a 300-sided wheel of fortune type thing, the odds of it landing on a specific side would be 1/300. Now if multiple people each spun that same wheel, the odds of at least one of them getting a specific side would be higher. No matter where in the world they did it, if they moved between spins, or whatever. Do you see my point here?

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Same as hunting on your own bro, don't waste time and effort collecting many people. It just feels like higher odds bc more ppl. Single person still 1/30,000

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1 hour ago, awkways said:

Same as hunting on your own bro, don't waste time and effort collecting many people. It just feels like higher odds bc more ppl. Single person still 1/30,000

^^^^^^^  no one can influence another person's odds (unless you're sharing a shiny charm via a link), what you did was just increase your sample size, which just means the group is more likely to find a shiny as a whole, the larger it grows. It's just math, nothing else. Your individual odds are still the same and no encounter's chances of being shiny is affected by another encounter, where you are, what you did, if it's the same Pokemon or area, or what you had for dinner. Still the same chances. It's all just superstition otherwise, like channels 1 and 4 being my lucky channels

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Hello, I am the captain of shiny pokemon in China. As you mentioned, I carry nearly 100 players to try to catch shiny pokemon, but they will not stay in one place for long, usually 45 minutes. According to my experience, this is the refresh time of the server.

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If the first shiny Pokemon appears in time, such as on the grass or on the water surface. There is a chance that a second shiny pokemon, or even a third one, will appear in the same place. Through our long arrest, the highest probability is more than 20 shiny pokemons a day.

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3 minutes ago, GapBear said:

如果第一个闪亮的口袋妖怪及时出现,如在草地上或水面上。有可能第二个闪亮的口袋妖怪,甚至第三个,将出现在同一个地方。通过我们的长期逮捕,最高概率是每天超过20个闪亮的小宠物。

My English is not very good. I mean, after a day's test, we've had a record of more than 20 shiny pokemons. 

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30 minutes ago, GapBear said:

If the first shiny Pokemon appears in time, such as on the grass or on the water surface. There is a chance that a second shiny pokemon, or even a third one, will appear in the same place. Through our long arrest, the highest probability is more than 20 shiny pokemons a day.

wait what? 20 shinies a day group? i give up!

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1 hour ago, GapBear said:

Hello, I am the captain of shiny pokemon in China. As you mentioned, I carry nearly 100 players to try to catch shiny pokemon, but they will not stay in one place for long, usually 45 minutes. According to my experience, this is the refresh time of the server.

Hello,GapBear,i am sorry  i cant  agree with your idead about refresh time of shiny,  the number of shiny pokemons that your team meet is computation of coincidence probability.Many players hunting together make the shiny event happened but not  refresh time you mention , if you make hunter fewer you cant get same result.For example, For example, there are a lot of people hunting hordes of x5 dittos. When someone of them meet first shiny pokemon, there won't immediately be a second shiny pokemon as you said.Your team can get a second or even third shiny pokemon  because there are enough people in your team, but there are not enough people where the hordes of x5 dittos are . They accumulate slowly, they meet one shiny  after a long accumulation, but they can't accumulate a large amount of data in a short time to get second or third .

 

 

你好,GpaBear,我很抱歉我不能赞同你的"闪点"观点,你的团队遇到的闪光精灵的数量是巧合概率的计算。许多玩家一起狩猎会使闪光事件发生,而不是因为"闪点",如果你让猎人更少,你就无法获得相同的结果。例如,X5百变怪的地方人多吧,当他们刷到一只闪光精灵之后,并不会像你所说的那样立马出现第二只闪光精灵。你的队伍能第二次甚至第三次次获得闪光精灵是因为你的队伍的人数足够多,而在百变怪的那里的人数不够,他们累加的速度慢,所以他们再经过漫长的累加后才获得一个闪光精灵,但是不能在短时间内累加大量数据而从获得第二只闪光精灵。

Edited by BlueNose

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40 minutes ago, BlueNose said:

Hello,GapBear,i am sorry  i cant  agree with your idead about refresh time of shiny,  the number of shiny pokemons that your team meet is computation of coincidence probability.Many players hunting together make the shiny event happened but not  refresh time you mention , if you make hunter fewer you cant get same result.For example, For example, there are a lot of people hunting hordes of x5 dittos. When someone of them meet first shiny pokemon, there won't immediately be a second shiny pokemon as you said.Your team can get a second or even third shiny pokemon  because there are enough people in your team, but there are not enough people where the hordes of x5 dittos are . They accumulate slowly, they meet one shiny  after a long accumulation, but they can't accumulate a large amount of data in a short time to get second or third .

 

 

你好,GpaBear,我很抱歉我不能赞同你的"闪点"观点,你的团队遇到的闪光精灵的数量是巧合概率的计算。许多玩家一起狩猎会使闪光事件发生,而不是因为"闪点",如果你让猎人更少,你就无法获得相同的结果。例如,X5百变怪的地方人多吧,当他们刷到一只闪光精灵之后,并不会像你所说的那样立马出现第二只闪光精灵。你的队伍能第二次甚至第三次次获得闪光精灵是因为你的队伍的人数足够多,而在百变怪的那里的人数不够,他们累加的速度慢,所以他们再经过漫长的累加后才获得一个闪光精灵,但是不能在短时间内累加大量数据而从获得第二只闪光精灵。

 Thank you for sharing.But a group of people are really happy to play together.lol(๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧

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38 minutes ago, GapBear said:

 Thank you for sharing.But a group of people are really happy to play together.lol(๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧

Shiny hunting is always more fun with friends, you're right!

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