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[OU Discussion] Togekiss


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23 minutes ago, Aard said:

Out of all the opinions that people can reasonably differ on, you pick the one thing that is hard fact.

 

(7/10)^2= 49% no flinch.  Its actually hax every 2 turns in a row a flinch doesn't occur.  Three was to be generous since a 34% chance of  no flinch occurring means the togekiss got haxxed hard.  Togekiss very fairly punishes slower stally mons and also very fairly will never flinch something faster.

I disagree with the math, but I do agree that a Togekiss beating a stall mon like Blissey with boosted flinches is not hax; it's expected.

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26 minutes ago, gbwead said:

I disagree with the math, but I do agree that a Togekiss beating a stall mon like Blissey with boosted flinches is not hax; it's expected.

Yeah, I don't know why I forgot to put serene grace in that calc.  Saw it a few minutes after.  Oops.  Just makes the point better anyway.

 

Scizor is interesting because it can superpower if it thinks togekiss will roost and bullet punch from 70% if it predicts airslash.  It doesnt care that much if togekiss nasty plots or subs on the switch.

 

252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Togekiss: 64-76 (33.3 - 39.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock

252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Togekiss: 88-105 (45.8 - 54.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Togekiss: 88-105 (55 - 65.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

 

While roosting:

252+ Atk Choice Band Scizor Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Togekiss: 170-200 (88.5 - 104.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

 

 

0 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 60-72 (33.8 - 40.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

 +2 0 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 118-141 (66.6 - 79.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

+2 252 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 145-172 (81.9 - 97.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

 

 

From my experience, Scizor, scarfzone, and one fighting and fire resist is enough to deal with togekiss and isn't unreasonably built just for togekiss.

 

So many common things aren't true counters but have the ability to beat down togekiss and make the game into something where togekiss has to pick the right move multiple times. 

 

It is not necessary to run lanturn, spdef dragonite, or whatever else is concocted in the scouting lab.  Just build a normal team with normal type coverage and more often than not you'll have enough things to switch into togekiss's moves to have a really good shot at killing it. 

Edited by Aard
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We probably wouldn't be having this discussion if we had team preview, but because we don't it becomes challenging to counter Togekiss since from my experience people wait until mid-late game to bring it out, when your counters are already weakened/fainted. With it's ability to set up Nasty Plot/Substitute fairly easily on defensive Pokémon, while also having  access to Roost/Heal Bell/Aura Sphere, it makes it pretty difficult to deal with if your counters have taken prior damage. Combine all of this with the skill-less flinch spam, I wouldn't mind if it were banned, or as Mike suggested at least tested for a month or two. 

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59 minutes ago, gbwead said:

I disagree with the math, but I do agree that a Togekiss beating a stall mon like Blissey with boosted flinches is not hax; it's expected.

0 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mantine: 28-34 (14.5 - 17.7%) -- possible 9HKO after Leftovers recovery

 

that happened to me a few days ago. is that expected as well?

 

 

i didnt really mind toge being around until people started bringing sub toge. hits "checks" for se damage not relying on any prediction and flinches slower mons into oblivion. that set alone is far from being busted, but the fact that you have to guess the set to act accordingly is what makes it a pain in the ass to face; well and the fact that it can 9hko a dedicated special wall that has access to roost.

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1 hour ago, DrButler said:
0 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mantine: 28-34 (14.5 - 17.7%) -- possible 9HKO after Leftovers recovery

 

that happened to me a few days ago. is that expected as well?

I'll do the math right this time.

 

((.6)(.95))^9 = 0.64% chance

 

Chance of getting two crits in a row with gen7 mechanics

 

(1/24)^2 = 0.173% chance

 

So about 3 times more likely than getting two crits in a row.  Any situation that happens under 5% of the time isn't expected or relevant unless there's enough turns for it to become relevant which togekiss only has so much air slash pp so there's not. 

 

Ban discussion should be better than people sitting around a fire and telling ghost stories of when togekiss flinched them 9 times in a row. 

 

Edited by Aard
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1 hour ago, DrButler said:
0 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mantine: 28-34 (14.5 - 17.7%) -- possible 9HKO after Leftovers recovery

 

that happened to me a few days ago. is that expected as well?

 

 

i didnt really mind toge being around until people started bringing sub toge. hits "checks" for se damage not relying on any prediction and flinches slower mons into oblivion. that set alone is far from being busted, but the fact that you have to guess the set to act accordingly is what makes it a pain in the ass to face; well and the fact that it can 9hko a dedicated special wall that has access to roost.

it's expected indeed since togekiss will be at +2 with nasty plot

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2 minutes ago, gbwead said:

it does most of the time

Haze bypasses subs though.  Spdef mantine is sufficient for beating togekiss unless you have luck worse than that of being crit and evne then you can see it going south after 5 or 6 flinches and switch.

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25 minutes ago, Aard said:

Ban discussion should be better than people sitting around a fire and telling ghost stories of when togekiss flinched them 9 times in a row. 

It should also be better than "my advice would be to just play for a while without scouting" or "blah blah put a normal team together and you should be fine"

 

All you've done is throw up some irrelevant calculations about 0 flinches in X amount of turns being considered bad rng - do you not see the fundamental flaw in your argument? When a Pokemon is so prone to flinching things to death, that it is considered unlucky if it doesn't? This discussion isn't to determine whether Togekiss fits Uber Offensive characteristics, but rather to determine whether or not the ease with which it can dismantle teams in a manner that is uncontrollable by the other player (i.e. through flinching/hax) is uncompetitive. There is no skill involved in boosting up to +2 and flinching most of the slower meta to death with little to no risk, or with very little preparation required. 

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6 minutes ago, Zymogen said:

It should also be better than "my advice would be to just play for a while without scouting" or "blah blah put a normal team together and you should be fine"

 

All you've done is throw up some irrelevant calculations about 0 flinches in X amount of turns being considered bad rng - do you not see the fundamental flaw in your argument? When a Pokemon is so prone to flinching things to death, that it is considered unlucky if it doesn't? This discussion isn't to determine whether Togekiss fits Uber Offensive characteristics, but rather to determine whether or not the ease with which it can dismantle teams in a manner that is uncontrollable by the other player (i.e. through flinching/hax) is uncompetitive. There is no skill involved in boosting up to +2 and flinching most of the slower meta to death with little to no risk, or with very little preparation required. 

Well, it has a .6% chance of dismantling a spdef mantine so you saying it will flinch every wall to death just isn't true.

 

There is absolutely skill in using np togekiss.  You have to remove faster checks and walls like mantine first, then play 50/50 prediction games with the rest of the tier.  What doesn't take skill is trying to brainlessly wall every special attacker with blissey or some other wall.  It sounds like that's how you want to beat togekiss, and there's just so many other options that aren't hard stall that you can use.

Edited by Aard
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13 minutes ago, Aard said:

Haze bypasses subs though.  Spdef mantine is sufficient for beating togekiss unless you have luck worse than that of being crit and evne then you can see it going south after 5 or 6 flinches and switch.

Spdef Mantine will almost never beat Nasty Plot Togekiss simply because Togekiss is naturally faster and can prevent you from hazing with couple flinches.

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5 minutes ago, gbwead said:

Spdef Mantine will almost never beat Nasty Plot Togekiss simply because Togekiss is naturally faster and can prevent you from hazing with couple flinches.

Only if it nasty plots on the switch. I thought we were talking about if it substitutes on the switch.  Yeah, if you give it 2 free setup turns you are probably in trouble. Even then its only a 0.3249 chance of 2 flinches in a row   which isn't "almost never" beat. 

Edited by Aard
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50 minutes ago, Aard said:

Only if it nasty plots on the switch. I thought we were talking about if it substitutes on the switch.  Yeah, if you give it 2 free setup turns you are probably in trouble. Even then its only a 0.3249 chance of 2 flinches in a row   which isn't "almost never" beat. 

2 flinches in a row is super likely considering Togekiss has 24 Air Slash and Mantine applies no pressure whatsoever to Togekiss.
 

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10 hours ago, gbwead said:

About Lanturn and Gengar disable, I just want to point out that they are super annoying for Togekiss, but they absolutely can't counter it by themselves unless they run very weird sets.

I said if the Toge doesnt run recovery move which is possible if it is sub+np variant because the need of coverage

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On 1/30/2019 at 4:32 PM, gbwead said:

Lanturn doesn't deal any dmg. Modest 252 spatk Lanturn with speed investment, does not 2hko calm Togekiss.

The idea would be to volt into a storng hitter (Darma, mienshao, etc)

 

On 1/30/2019 at 5:21 PM, Zymogen said:

To say that Togekiss "holds the tier together" is a stretch too far in my eyes because, to say that, is to imply that there are broken Pokemon in the tier that Togekiss single-handedly keeps in check which couldn't be farther from the truth.

It checks reuni, conk and hydreig, and blissey 4 of the 5 highest usage mons, with physical investment you can add in banded sciz too. so yeah, it keeps a lot of stuff, and stall, in check. It doesn't counter them, in the same way lando doesnt counter the mons it checks in usum ou, but its an affordable check that fits in balance and offense builds if you dont wanna be running cofag + milotic to handle these mons.

 

And it doesnt make stall useless, it makes the game more balanced.

 

On 1/30/2019 at 10:47 PM, Aard said:

Out of all the opinions that people can reasonably differ on, you pick the one thing that is hard fact.

 

(4/10)^2= .16% no flinch.  Its actually hax every 2 turns in a row a flinch doesn't occur.  Three was to be generous since a 6.4% chance of  no flinch occurring means the togekiss got haxxed hard.  Togekiss very fairly punishes slower stally mons and also very fairly will never flinch something faster.

Gotta love when people argue only out of sentiment and can't even accept statistical and probability counterproof to their arguments.

 

On 1/31/2019 at 2:57 AM, gbwead said:

2 flinches in a row is super likely considering Togekiss has 24 Air Slash and Mantine applies no pressure whatsoever to Togekiss.
 

Since when is 36%  "Super likely"? 

 

fobXtJl.png

 

PS: Sorry for responding on multiple posts but im on phone and couldnt format it any better.

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2 hours ago, gbwead said:

2 flinches in a row is super likely considering Togekiss has 24 Air Slash and Mantine applies no pressure whatsoever to Togekiss.
 

The only time it can get up free nasty plots is on the initial switch or turns when mantine is forced to roost from regular air slash damage at which point is has a 5 turn window to roost whenever it likes or haze predicted nasty plots.  I'm not saying only use mantine to deal with togekiss, but if it is paired with something like magnezone that can take air slashes then togekiss is going to have a hard time breaking through.  I kind of wonder how many people actually have their togekiss pp maxed. 

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22 minutes ago, FNTCZ said:

The idea would be to volt into a storng hitter (Darma, mienshao, etc)

Ya, that's my point. Lanturn doesn't stop Togekiss by itself.

 

14 minutes ago, FNTCZ said:

Since when is 51%  "Super likely"? 

+2 252 SpA Togekiss Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mantine: 69-82 (35.9 - 42.7%) -- 93.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

As you can see, +2 Togekiss can 3HKO Mantine which is possible with only 2 flinches. 57%*57%*95% = 30.8% That's the odds of getting that 3HKO. 

 

Since Mantine can't hurt Togekiss in any way, Togekiss if free to attempt getting that 3HKO whenever Mantine manages to Haze or Roost. With 24 Air Slash, Togekiss can try getting that 30.8% KO multiple times until it most likely gets it.

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1 minute ago, Bubaili said:

I dont think banning togekiss is the solution either. Dont need to go that far. It's an interesting pokemon to play in comp.

The only thing which needs to be done is to limit the flinch rate to 30%. It would keep the RNG aspect but without being too broken.

I'm sorry to say this but doing this is the same as banning it from the tier. No flinch no Togekiss

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1 minute ago, kiwi said:

I'm sorry to say this but doing this is the same as banning it from the tier. No flinch no Togekiss

I dont think so, 30% flinch NP is still strong against stall. It also can be played as support with heal bell, wish, defog, etc. People would maybe play it less but it doesnt mean it wouldnt be played anymore. 

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Just now, kiwi said:

Without ''assuring'' the flinch it won't be the same, if that is done who will play Togekiss?

The only thing that assures a flinch is Fake Out. 30% is a Scald burn, 30% is Focus Blast's miss rate, it'd still be perfectly viable in my opinion.

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