Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
SelflovingWhale

Basic GTL observations over 3 months

Recommended Posts

Hey all, I've intended to collect data of the Pokemmo economy for quite a while, and began this project 3 months ago but never got around to constantly updating the data. I've just decided to look at some prices i recorded back then, and I intend to continue keeping much closer attention to price fluctuations along with events that may impact the economy. This is mainly just for fun, to see how changes in the economy could potentially affect prices. 

 

---------Farmables

Everstone
sometime in early August 2018 17000~20000
10/10/18 4998
16/01/2019 8300

Life Orb
10/10/18 144000
16/01/2019 159000

Leppa Berries
10/10/18 1188
16/01/2019 1390


--------- Runthrough Farmables
Exp. share
10/10/18 50000
16/01/2019 64000

---------Bp farm

Rocky Helmet
9/10/18 140000
10/10/18 178000
16/01/2019 149999

Choice Scarf 
10/10/18 260000
16/01/2019 249999

Choice Band
10/10/18 255000
16/01/2019 245000

Choice Specs
10/10/18 255000
16/01/2019 240000

 

--------- Cash

7 Day donator status
10/10/18 699999
16/01/2019 1400000

15 Day donator status
10/10/18 1205000
16/01/2019 2820000 

30 Day donator status
10/10/18 1900000
16/01/2019 4395000

 

Pokemon

---------Ditto (breeder)
1V Hp
10/10/18 10500
16/01/2019 13000

1V Atk
10/10/18 9555
16/01/2019 11000

1V Spe
10/10/18 11000
16/01/2019 14000

 

---------Hydrei 5V timid comp
10/10/18 850000
16/01/2019 16000000 (2listings available)

---------Metagross 5V adamant comp (ungendered)
10/10/18 1300000
16/01/2019 1466666

 

Shinies

---------Rapidash (hotspot for ev and exp) No perfect IVs  non rare
10/10/18 1650000
16/01/2019 2999999

---------Dratini rare
10/10/18 72mil
16/01/2019 no listings available

 

From here, the notable observations are mainly

1) how the Donator tickets have jumped in prices dramatically

2) there is noticeable price increase in all farmables, Dittos, berries, everstones - this is likely inflation.

3) Everstone prices have recovered to what I would think is a healthy price; around Septemeber - Oct in 2018 the influx of Chinese players i assume brought the everstone prices way down. The explanation for this may be that either the influx of players then have left after a brief stay in the game, OR have continued to the end game pvp content where other means of farming are preferred.

4) Shiny prices have not decreased despite an assumed increase in player base, which indicates that the shiny rate is either balanced or a little too low (wink)

 

These are just my interpretations of the data, note its just opinion and definitely not necessarily true. I'm sure the devs do track the prices, but i hope this spread of data and item variety can inform the player base or in the future aid the dev team. 

 

Cheers, do let me know if yall want other items to be tracked. I am currently tracking redreaperhood + xmas lights.

Edited by SelflovingWhale

Share this post


Link to post
xRdZiiiN   

i think u could take notes on raw rp price as well , it's a really important thing to keep yours eyes on , right now rp is kinda stabilizing little by little , cuz we don't have nothing too desired on gift shop.

overall i liked what u did here , keep it up. *^_^*

Share this post


Link to post
Goku   

Would be interesting if you listed the limited vanities ^^ 

Am I right @Aerun?

Share this post


Link to post

Good listing.

leppas actually increased little bit over 1400 and seen them sold 1450+ a few days ago, but 1350 is lowest i have sold since last month.

Btw, hydregion 16m, should be 1.6m i think :)

Share this post


Link to post
razimove   

lol man, you only checked for items that are always unstable, never wth a fixed value. Check limiteds, shinies, premier balls, the sort of stuff that matters, not those that one day are 300k, the next 240, the other 320. Also, there's a lot more than just a price tag when it comes to shinies, nature, gender, and ivs influence the value, so that information you placed is also very inaccurate.

And an hydreigon 5x31 natured is still worth the same, around 1m. Not more, not less, as every 5x31 is almost, babies and 21k/genders aside.

Edited by razimove

Share this post


Link to post
Goku   
5 hours ago, razimove said:

lol man, you only checked for items that are always unstable, never wth a fixed value. Check limiteds, shinies, premier balls, the sort of stuff that matters, not those that one day are 300k, the next 240, the other 320. Also, there's a lot more than just a price tag when it comes to shinies, nature, gender, and ivs influence the value, so that information you placed is also very inaccurate.

And an hydreigon 5x31 natured is still worth the same, around 1m. Not more, not less, as every 5x31 is almost, babies and 21k/genders aside.

Limited vanities 30mil-50mil and now 300-400mil lmfao xd

Share this post


Link to post
Aard   

I want to see someone spin an argument for rp item prices increasing drastically meaning anything other than a lower percent of players donating. 

 

The game demands a certain amount of donations to keep it from looking like its too blatantly pay to win.  If ocarinas sold for 10 mil that wouldn't be good.  Hope donation rate gets back on track soon.  The catch rate decrease and christmas event patched the leak for now but its temporary.  Wish whoever has to deal with price setting luck since increasing the rp amount for every item isn't an option since it would make the profitable customers rage. 

 

Dungeons that are hard to beat and high skill cap would fix this issue so the good news is I bet we can expect those in ~3 months since it will be more and more necessary to keep the economy in check. 

 

To be fair, the devs always come up with something so I bet they will solve this instead of letting the game stagnate.

 

Summing things up, there is a negative correlation between how much people donate and how much non-rp content is released.  Above a certain threshold, less donations means more content.  

 

Anyway, that's my speculation on it.  As long as some cupid arrow heart kiss vanity isn't released that everyone clamors for I predict dungeons by April.  Speculation is fun.

Edited by Aard

Share this post


Link to post
Matoka   
On 1/16/2019 at 8:24 AM, Aard said:

I want to see someone spin an argument for rp item prices increasing drastically meaning anything other than a lower percent of players donating. 

Wish Granted

In terms of Supply and Demand, yes it is hypothetically possible that an increase in the price of RP-bought items could be due to a decrease in their supply due to less people donating and adding them to the economy, but there are two other possibilities:

Firstly, the demand for them could have increased, if the number of players who are investment savvy and used to playing the GTL and farming items / Pokeyen efficiently increases then the number of people who are capable of purchasing these items (for these now increased prices) will increase, and therefore there will be more demand and thus price increases further until an equilibrium is met.

The second one is the possibility of Pokeyen inflation, RP is tied to real-world currency and thus is going to USUALLY be more stable than in-game currencies which you can generate by beating up some kid and his rattata or literally printing your own money with Payday, thus the supply of Pokeyen in circulation would logically go up if the amount being removed from the game by money sinks (NPC vendors, Move deleter, name changer, Breeding supplies etc) was overall less than is being added to the game. If demand remained the same but the supply of Pokeyen went up then technically speaking the pokeyen would be worth "less" than it used to be, thus people would be asking for a higher amount of Pokeyen for RP items than they used to, as RP's value is stable while Pokeyen's value is potentially decreasing.

These are just hypothetical possibilities and realistically speaking when looking at a market that isn't being moderated where the prices of everything is decided on by the player (the only real influence on item value is NPC vendor sell / buy price as well as the GTL listing fees) then it becomes impossible to look at one set data, spot a correlation and then state that it MUST be because of X, when in reality it's likely 20% X 50% Y, 25% Z, and 5% "who knows what", etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Flareonn   
On 1/16/2019 at 8:24 AM, Aard said:

I want to see someone spin an argument for rp item prices increasing drastically meaning anything other than a lower percent of players donating. 

I can say with confidence the main reason for it is this, (ill try and explain the best i can)

 

- Every "Whale" now knows that this is now VanityMMO what with the recent years drastic increase in Time Limited Vanity prices

 

- The thought behind it is what is the point in buying a 1500RP item (which is not limited and has little investment properties) when they can just wait until the next "Time Limited" item is available on the Gift Shop and buy multiples of those.

 

- You could either buy them and resell constantly making small profits at a time to the people not donating OR save multiples and get around 20x EACH what you would of gotten if you bought a none time limited item for the same price of RP.

 

- The fact people have caught on to this idea also drives all RP items up drastically with them, as lets be honest not even the casual donator noobs will sell 1500RP at the price of a NON limited item when there is also a Limited item they can buy and sell with it. This makes the non limiteds/donator tickets more scarce as not many people are buying them because they sell for less, They would rather buy limiteds instead and make 1-2-3m extra profit for there RP fast or invest.

 

- There is definitely not "a lower percent of players donating", I know a few players than spent around $1K on the last Xmas event and that is just a couple of people.... This year has seen a huge increase in the playerbase mainly due to the android release/Chinese

 

- The reason you do not see the market so drenched in these vanitys is also because of the people that are not donating (ME) getting in on the action due to the fast sellers, Stocking up on mutliple limiteds with PokeYen to double/triple there money in a year or 2 at max.

 

In my opinion this is not speculation this is fact from what i have seen + discussed with players over the last year playing

 

Also some background - when the drastic playerbase increase first happened they were tons more donations which drove all RP down, You could buy 30 day donator tickets for 700k and that was less than a year ago, This was just down to the Chinese being new to the game (noobs) which was also the reason everyday 2-3 ultra rare shinys were sold on GTL for 2m (LOL) and unfortunately the shiny market crashed contributing to the fast paced boost in vanity prices .

Now they know better unfortunately which is why you are seeing everything rise in price (even more than before)

 

Edited by Flareonn

Share this post


Link to post
Aard   
1 hour ago, Matoka said:

Wish Granted

In terms of Supply and Demand, yes it is hypothetically possible that an increase in the price of RP-bought items could be due to a decrease in their supply due to less people donating and adding them to the economy, but there are two other possibilities:

Firstly, the demand for them could have increased.

The second one is the possibility of Pokeyen inflation


 in reality it's likely 20% X 50% Y, 25% Z, and 5% "who knows what", etc.

This was a well thought out response and technically its true that multiple factors are in play.  I just don't see the demand for rp items that are constantly available and wanted like move ocarinas increasing so much that it triples their price or pokeyen inflation tripling the price of any non-rp items even with ridiculous new catch rate mechanics.

 

11 minutes ago, Flareonn said:

I can say with confidence the main reason for it is this, (ill try and explain the best i can)

 

 at a time to the people not donating OR save multiples and get around 20x EACH what you would of gotten if you bought a none time limited item for the same price of RP.

 

- The fact people have caught on to this idea also drives all RP items up drastically with them, as lets be honest not even the casual donator noobs will sell 1500RP at the price of a NON limited item when there is also a Limited item they can buy and sell with it.

- There is definitely not "a lower percent of players donating", I know a few players than spent around $1K

 

- The reason you do not see the market so drenched in these vanitys is also because of the people that are not donating (ME) getting in on the action due to the fast sellers, Stocking up on mutliple limiteds with PokeYen to double/triple there money in a year or 2 at max.

 

In my opinion this is not speculation this is fact

This was not as well thought out of a response.  Full of anecdotal evidence and not understanding the difference between rate and raw amount.  If the playerbase doubled but donations are only 1.5x what they were, the donation rate decreased.  It doesn't matter if the amount of people donating increased or if you know people who dropped $1k. 

 

Limited vanities aren't anything new.  Is it possible people just now caught on after years of them?  Maybe, but why now and not before?   Your strategy only worked before because the playerbase drastically increased and no new players had all the previous vanities.  Good luck finding another place as big as China or another market as big as Android to expand to and having your money double.  All the players who want this years vanities have them and next year that will still be the case unless the game grows.  You probably just lost a bunch of money and it worries me you see it as a safe investment rather than a risky one.  Its like how people saw bitcoin all over again.

 

And that last sentence:  "In my opinion this is not speculation, this is fact".  There's a lot that I could say about that that I won't.

Share this post


Link to post
Flareonn   
24 minutes ago, Aard said:

Limited vanities aren't anything new.  Is it possible people just now caught on after years of them?  Maybe, but why now and not before?   Your strategy only worked before because the playerbase drastically increased and no new players had all the previous vanities.  Good luck finding another place as big as China or another market as big as Android to expand to and having your money double.  All the players who want this years vanities have them and next year that will still be the case unless the game grows.  You probably just lost a bunch of money and it worries me you see it as a safe investment rather than a risky one.  Its like how people saw bitcoin all over again.

 

And that last sentence:  "In my opinion this is not speculation, this is fact".  There's a lot that I could say about that that I won't.

Haha why does everyone assume things about others on here? :D

if you read it again you would see that i do not donate, rather just invested PokeYen, Regardless the only thing i invested on this game is my time and i have not played in awhile nor do i intend to anymore in its current state.

 

Anyway...

You are correct about all that crap about yeah its not gonna increase again and you are correct the reason it didnt happen before is cause the chinese didnt have the old vanitys. 

However.... The nature of GTL is people buying and reselling over and over again at a higher price to get richer, x that with all the players that will just leave this game out of sheer bordom and not come back (RIP Party Hat) those items will disspear with them.

The items will still rise regardless, Even if it is in the end just the super rich trading between themselves, thats how its worked for years its just now there more people getting over 100m now pretty easily.

 

Please do not worry about me lol i was merely trying to help you understand when you asked the question. i considered you a noob asking a genuine question and tried to help :D

I'd be happy to help you try and understand things you do not, This is from experience the things i have said, its hard to put a years worth of experience into a small post so if i missed something or you did not understand it completely theirs no need to make a post like this XD

 

My mistake tho i didnt respond to your post looking for an argument but i guess thats what you wanted when you said "I want to see someone spin an argument"

 

 

Edited by Flareonn
gg im done - gl

Share this post


Link to post
Aard   
37 minutes ago, Flareonn said:

Please do not worry about me lol

 

1 hour ago, Flareonn said:

In my opinion this is fact

...Good luck, man.

Share this post


Link to post

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.