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Shiny Hunting Help


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1 hour ago, Bearminator said:

Well, it all depends of what want to hunt. For example, Lapras doesn't have hordes, and catching few lapras to breed them over and over again is easier for sure than just hunting wild ones. 

I don't want to make a fuzz but I truly am beginning to believe that shiny hatch rates are better than actually encountering a shiny. Why do I say this? Well for instance the rate is 30k. I know a lot of people going beyond that rate and not encountering a shiny. I also know a lot of people who try hatching for rares and actually are successful within a month of trying 1-2 boxes a day. 

Edit: I'm not confirming the rate is better I just actually think when you hunt via breeding the game prob thinks less of you being a bot or cheating.

Edited by Goku
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11 minutes ago, Goku said:

I don't want to make a fuzz but I truly am beginning to believe that shiny hatch rates are better than actually encountering a shiny. Why do I say this? Well for instance the rate is 30k. I know a lot of people going beyond that rate and not encountering a shiny. I also know a lot of people who try hatching for rares and actually are successful within a month of trying 1-2 boxes a day. 

People call it a rate but it's actually a chance per encounter (1/30000 chance per encounter). You might have seen Kyu explain an encounter as a die roll with 30k sides, out of which only one side is for a shiny encounter and each encounter is a different die role. Because of this, reaching 30,000 encounters won't guarantee a shiny encounter. Now who encounters a shiny and when, it all depends on that die roll. It can be two consecutive shiny encounters or a millennium for another one.

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1 hour ago, Lightningvolt said:

People call it a rate but it's actually a chance per encounter (1/30000 chance per encounter). You might have seen Kyu explain an encounter as a die roll with 30k sides, out of which only one side is for a shiny encounter and each encounter is a different die role. Because of this, reaching 30,000 encounters won't guarantee a shiny encounter. Now who encounters a shiny and when, it all depends on that die roll. It can be two consecutive shiny encounters or a millennium for another one.

No need to explain to me how the shit works bro ( no disrespect) I have been here since 2012.

Edit: I was simply talking about the system that may or may not intervene with your shiny odds after a while of doing the same action on the same tile a consecutive amount of times, thinking you might be a bot since you show the same characteristics. 

 

 On a side note your theory is a bit outdated but it's not wrong ( Kyu himself referred to it as being the way to understand the odds like years ago. You're referring to the gambler's fallacy. 

 

For each consecutive 30k encounters you have a 63% chance of encountering a shiny.

 

In general if the probability of something happening is 1/N(Let's just say shiny rate here) and if you do it N times, for large enough N, the probability of it happening at least once (shiny appearing)
is close to 63.21%

Edited by Goku
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36 minutes ago, Goku said:

I was simply talking about the system that may or may not intervene with your shiny odds after a while of doing the same action on the same tile a consecutive amount of times, thinking you might be a bot since you show the same characteristics

Those things have nothing to do with the shiny chance and have no effect on it.

 

37 minutes ago, Goku said:

For each consecutive 30k encounters you have a 63% chance of encountering a shiny.

 

In general if the probability of something happening is 1/N(Let's just say shiny rate here) and if you do it N times, for large enough N, the probability of it happening at least once (shiny appearing)
is close to 63.21%

Still does not guarantee a shiny after 30k encounters.

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27 minutes ago, Lightningvolt said:

Those things have nothing to do with the shiny chance and have no effect on it.

 

Still does not guarantee a shiny after 30k encounters.

Prove to me it doesn't. There was a thread about it.

 

I never said it guaranteed a shiny did I?

Edited by Goku
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1 hour ago, Goku said:

For each consecutive 30k encounters you have a 63% chance of encountering a shiny.

I'm assuming that must be for hordes or something. I know that any least for single encounters, the probability (as can be proven using logarithmic probability calculations) of encountering a shiny within 30,000 encounters is at around 35%. Also since probabilities are independent in this case, the fact they are consecutive provides  no mathematical context. Tweaking the variables for same calculations also states its around 135,000 encounters to have a 99% chance at encountering a shiny, roughly 70,000 encounters for 90% chance as well.

 

N.B. Did these calculations a while ago so I'm just remembering figures off the top of my head, I can recalculate them later for more clarity.

Edited by Linfanz
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36 minutes ago, Goku said:

Prove to me it doesn't. 

You are free to believe in whatever you want. All I can do is state you the facts.

36 minutes ago, Goku said:

I never said it guaranteed a shiny did I?

 

3 hours ago, Goku said:

I know a lot of people going beyond that rate and not encountering a shiny. 

Maybe I am just too dumb to draw any conclusions from this sentence.

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1 hour ago, Lightningvolt said:

Those things have nothing to do with the shiny chance and have no effect on it.

 

 

1 hour ago, Goku said:

Prove to me it doesn't. There was a thread about it.

 

I think Goku is talking about this post from Kyu (first paragraph)

pNu2E6B.png

I remember it well too and also feel I've had my chances reduced from paydaying legitimately, by having captchas pop up regularly thinking I'm a bot :/ 

Edited by Flareonn
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35 minutes ago, Lightningvolt said:

You are free to believe in whatever you want. All I can do is state you the facts.

 

Maybe I am just too dumb to draw any conclusions from this sentence.

If you read carefully you would understand what I meant. I was stating that I think the chances of hatching a shiny are better than encountering one based upon the factor mentioned by kyu above which @Flareonn was kind enough to bring to the table. What facts? You probably didn't even know of the factor mentioned by Kyu. I never asked you the shiny rate. I asked whether this factor is still active or not and if the role it plays affect breeding.

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26 minutes ago, Flareonn said:

I remember it well too and also feel I've had my chances reduced from paydaying legitimately, by having captchas pop up regularly thinking I'm a bot :/ 

All I was trying to say was that the system won't unfairly target someone if it "thinks someone is botting”. It only comes in effect after someone gets a punishment and not by just mere captchas.

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42 minutes ago, jennylovesu said:

Isn't the punishment for botting a permanent ban? So the anti-cheat would affect the next account that player creates?

Your next account will be monitored I think. Obviously that makes sense because they can see this IP is linked to the previous account that was banned. Here is a tip though don't RMT and don't BOT and you will be fine.

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