shiny hunting with oddish

[zenoblaid1998]

today I started doing shiny hunting using Sweet Scent with oddish, in the space of 30 minutes pidgey shiny came out. it was just luck or this method can speed shiny hunting? 

 

oggi ho iniziato a fare shiny hunting utilizzando Sweet Scent con oddish, nel giro di 30 minuti mi è uscito pidgey shiny. è stata solo fortuna o questo metodo può velocizzare lo shiny hunting? 

Edited September 7, 2018 by zenoblaid1998

[DarylDixon]

35 minutes ago, zenoblaid1998 said:

today I started doing shiny hunting using Sweet Scent with oddish, in the space of 30 minutes pidgey shiny came out. it was just luck or this method can speed shiny hunting? 

 

oggi ho iniziato a fare shiny hunting utilizzando Sweet Scent con oddish, nel giro di 30 minuti mi è uscito pidgey shiny. è stata solo fortuna o questo metodo può velocizzare lo shiny hunting? 

è stata fortuna, il rate per cercare lo shiny rimane sempre 1/30.000.

[zenoblaid1998]

ok grazie mille è stato bello però trovare uno shiny alla 20esima ora di gioco

[Aard]

After 30 minutes and ~250 pidgeys seen its not too high.

(29999/30000)^250 = 99.17% no shiny

or if you have donator (299989/300000)^250 = 99.08% no shiny.

 

On average you would need a lot more than 30 minutes. 

 

After 100 hours of using sweet scent over and over your chances with are pretty good.

(29999/30000)^50000 = 18.89% chance of no shiny

(299989/300000)^50000 = 15.99% chance no shiny

[Goku]

1 hour ago, Aard said:

After 30 minutes and ~250 pidgeys seen its not too high.

(29999/30000)^250 = 99.17% no shiny

or if you have donator (299989/300000)^250 = 99.08% no shiny.

 

On average you would need a lot more than 30 minutes. 

 

After 100 hours of using sweet scent over and over your chances with are pretty good.

(29999/30000)^50000 = 18.89% chance of no shiny

(299989/300000)^50000 = 15.99% chance no shiny

Ermmmm it's entirely luck based. Just because you use sweet scent for 100 hours doesn't mean your chances is good. Getting 30k encounters doesn't guarantee you a shiny. 

[Aard]

5 minutes ago, Goku said:

Ermmmm it's entirely luck based. Just because you use sweet scent for 100 hours doesn't mean your chances is good. Getting 30k encounters doesn't guarantee you a shiny. 

In 30k encounters you have a 63.2% chance of running into at least one shiny or with donator a 66.7% chance of running into at least one shiny.  If you don't in the next 30k encounters the chance is the same, no one implied otherwise.

Edited September 8, 2018 by Aard

[Goku]

30 minutes ago, Aard said:

In 30k encounters you have a 63.2% chance of running into at least one shiny or with donator a 66.7% chance of running into at least one shiny.  If you don't in the next 30k encounters the chance is the same, no one implied otherwise.

That's not how it works. You have a misunderstanding of how it actually works. Think of a dice with 30 000 sides. You can keep throwing that dice but there is no guarantee for it to land on that 1 side that is shiny. 66% chance of running into a shiny with donator after 30k?!! Lmfao No.

[Kizhaz]

22 minutes ago, Goku said:

That's not how it works. You have a misunderstanding of how it actually works. Think of a dice with 30 000 sides. You can keep throwing that dice but there is no guarantee for it to land on that 1 side that is shiny. 66% chance of running into a shiny with donator after 30k?!! Lmfao No.

Actually mathematically that is how probability works, it's an exponential curve that never quite reaches 100%

[Goku]

5 hours ago, Kizhaz said:

Actually mathematically that is how probability works, it's an exponential curve that never quite reaches 100%

Kyu posted this himself a few years ago iirc. Check it out. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

[Kizhaz]

30 minutes ago, Goku said:

Kyu posted this himself a few years ago iirc. Check it out. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Technically you aren't wrong, each encounter should be treated as your first since the rate is always 1/30000. However if you then look back at your previous encounters (say 30000 of them) and you've yet to seen a shiny, it's a 36.7% chance to have managed that which is where this fallacy that it was a 63.2% chance of getting a shiny by then comes from. At the end of the day none of this really matters since you could find one after 5 encounters or 5 million

 

E. I guess on an easier level to look at it, Focus Blast will hit 70% of the time therefor it will miss 30%. If after 8 Focus Blasts the chance of missing just 1 of them is 94.2% but this isn't to say that there was a 5.8% to hit every one because each turn was independent of the previous ie. Missing Turn 2 doesn't make it easier to hit Turn 3. The first half of this thread had a good in depth look at this sort of thing (not sure if trashed threads can even be viewed) 

 

[Goku]

45 minutes ago, Kizhaz said:

Technically you aren't wrong, each encounter should be treated as your first since the rate is always 1/30000. However if you then look back at your previous encounters (say 30000 of them) and you've yet to seen a shiny, it's a 36.7% chance to have managed that which is where this fallacy that it was a 63.2% chance of getting a shiny by then comes from. At the end of the day none of this really matters since you could find one after 5 encounters or 5 million

 

E. I guess on an easier level to look at it, Focus Blast will hit 70% of the time therefor it will miss 30%. If after 8 Focus Blasts the chance of missing just 1 of them is 94.2% but this isn't to say that there was a 5.8% to hit every one because each turn was independent of the previous ie. Missing Turn 2 doesn't make it easier to hit Turn 3. The first half of this thread had a good in depth look at this sort of thing (not sure if trashed threads can even be viewed) 

 

I checked the 63% probability thing and it checks out. But it's still hard to grasp the idea that if I reach 30k every time I have a 63% of getting a shiny cuz then my luck is fcking horrible.

Edited September 8, 2018 by Goku