Regarding Lotteries ...

[Raederz]

(Here are the current rules about lotteries)

 

____________

 

As I'm frequently hosting lotteries, I have figured these rules are kinda "experimental". In my opinion, it is good to make some change on it, depending on staff vision of lotteries.

 

Visions can be stuff like :

1- It's a good way to trade.

2- It  should not be more used than direct selling or  trading.

3- Its delays are problematic and should make it special/restrictive to host.

4- Can be failed (can't find enought customers) ?

5- Can be long to fill ?

6- Can be a scam ?

7- ...

 

Some of these problematics are already related with measures you can find in the link above.

But in my opinion, not all of them are treated the right way.

 

Let me start by commenting the current rules :

Players creating a lottery must first private message a Trade Corner Moderator before creating a thread.
This is ok, but maybe there should be some filtering from moderators, judging the risk for the lottery to fail, according to the prize itself, and the price it is given.

 

The player must mail the item/Pokemon being raffled to the Staff member who will keep it safe until all tickets are sold.

This is a nice way to prevent scam. I'm totally supporting this measure, and happy moderators invest themselves in making lotteries possible in a safe way.

Lottery threads must not be opened until the staff member has confirmed receipt of the prize.

Same as above, can prevent some kind of "hold up" scam idk. But it's not exactely made the right way.

This rule can be kept, but it should be completed with a rule making customers able to buy tickets only once the moderator himself gave the confirmation on holding the prize.

(Which is currenly the case most of the time, but there are no rules about it).

Once a lottery has been opened on the forums, it must be completed.

This last rule is, in my opinion, the beggining of a nice rule, but it lacks too many details for it to be good. 

What happens if a lottery takes too long to find customers ? What is "too long" ?

What if the host become inactive ?

What if any customer want his money back at any moment ? After a certain duration ?

What if the host want to change the lottery caracteristics after it started (price and/or number of tickets available) ? What about already paid tickets then ?

 

And over than this, I've been doing stuff that is not mentionned at all, and may be good to give precision on, such as :

 

Free lottery :

Does it belong in trade corner ? How to determine time/ticket limit ? How to prevent alts ? Can the host put conditions on the ticket claiming ? What kind of conditions ?

 

Varying price :

Can the host put different prices for people who achived different kind of stuff ? What kind of achievement ? This can be overseen by a same rule for the changing ticket-price due to not filling.

 

Free tickets in non-free lottery :

Extreme version of varying prices, should it be allowed ? What kind of achievements can be asked for it ?

 

_______________

 

All this must be regulated by precise rules in my opinion.

 

Here are some I can suggest :

 

(1) When the host private message the moderator, can be refused, according reasons such as :

- Invaild prize

Any prize that is not adapted to lotteries. Such as "lava cookie lottery", "1*31 field egg group breeder lottery". Lotteries are an investment (in time and effort) for both the host and the moderator, it must be reserved for valuable stuff. Also should disable lotteries for stuff like shiny eevee or highly limited items. Prevents high risks of failing lottery, give legitimity to the effort given by moderators on making lotteries possible.

- Invalid price

Total price of the tickets is way too high regarding the prize. Prevents high risks of failing lottery.

- Any other reason that may give the lottery an high risk of failing.

Any refusal will be directly discussed between the moderator and the host.

 

(2) Thread must content :

- The number of tickets available.

- The prize, with every precisions that may affect its value.

- The ticket price.

- The time limit (if necessary).

- The special rules (if some are allowed).

- The ticket list, giving owners IGN as soon as the host can confirm they claimed their tickets.

- The name of the moderator who confirmed the lottery, and holds the prize.

- The mention "Wait [name of the moderator] confirmation before you can buy/claim any ticket.".

 

So it goes with the rule :

 

No ticket can be claimed before a moderator has confirmed the lottery validity on the thread.

 

(3) If the lottery is not filled after 2 weeks, the moderator in charge will contact the host to :

- Cancel the lottery :

The host need to mail all the money he got from the lottery + 1k per customer to the moderator, so he can refund all customers before closing the thread, and mailing back the prize to the host.

- Reduce the amount of tickets :

Makes it more attractive, each ticket still cost the same, but gives more chance to win. He is then given one more week before being re-contacted if the lottery is still not filled.

- Reduce the ticket price :

Makes it more attractive, but harder to make than a ticket amount reducing. He needs to mail the difference between the last and new price, multiplied by the number of tickets already claimed, +1k per customer to the moderator, so he can refund all those who paid the first price. Then he is given one more week before being re-contacted if the lottery is still not filled.

(Not making this refund would make people feared about buying tickets of recently opened lotteries, which increases the risk of failing)

- Calling the draw :

We put the hosts IGN on unclaimed tickets, and make the draw.

(Of course it can favorise the host because he can end up having no loss and some profit, but in term of long term value, it obliges him to invest in tickets nobody wants, and will make him sometimes lose the prize for way less than he first predicted).

 

The host will be contacted by forum mail, so the moderator will have first warned him to check it after two weeks if his lottery is still running.

If the host gives no answer after 2 more weeks, then the lottery is stopped, and all remaining tickets are cut. The moderator makes the draw, taking in account only claimed tickets.

(Exemple : 10 tickets lottery, only 5 and 8 are claimed, 5 becomes 1, 8 becomes 2, and the moderator draw between 1 and 2).

 

(4) Customers can't ask their money back, only host or staff decision can make them refunded.

 

(5) Any changing in ticket number, ticket price, or prize after the lottery started must be discussed between the host and the moderator, and approved by the moderator. Then, the moderator will announce it on the thread, and the host will edit the main post. As in rule (3) any reduction in ticket price must go along with refund of the difference.

(Tickets must all give same winning probability regarding price.)

 

(6) Free lotteries are allowed, an ending date must be precised.

 

(7) Any special rule regarding catching achievement, creative achievement, storyline achievement, provable pvp achievement, is allowed to give the customer a discount on one, or all the tickets he wants to claim (depending on the rule). But it first needs to be approved by the moderator, and can be refused. Then, it needs to be clearly explained on the main post of the thread.

 

______________

 

Feel free to give your opinion, suggest more rules you think legit, or to modify any of the rules I suggest here.

 

Thanks for reading.

[razimove]

Make it so that people have to post directly in the thread to proof they're real people aswell, so there's less scams like this one.

[Raederz]

Spoiler

19 hours ago, redspawn said:

Make it so that people have to post directly in the thread to proof they're real people aswell, so there's less scams like this one.

If you have anything to suggest, clearly, as a rule, feel free to do so, but why throwing accusation here ? (without proof on top of that, but if you have some, contact a moderator, dont expose them here)

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[razimove]

43 minutes ago, Raederz said:

If you have anything to suggest, clearly, as a rule, feel free to do so, but why throwing accusation here ? (without proof on top of that, but if you have some, contact a moderator, dont expose them here)

gave it as an example. No proof they're real or not. You can literally scam people this way in a lottery, just give 20 tickets to an alt of yours, or a team member, and allow them to have a big chance of winning hte prize pool.

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

 

17 hours ago, redspawn said:

gave it as an example. No proof they're real or not. You can literally scam people this way in a lottery, just give 20 tickets to an alt of yours, or a team member, and allow them to have a big chance of winning hte prize pool.

 

Huh ? The draw is made by a staff member, who holds the shinies, you know ?

Buying a ticket out of twenty is 1 chance out of 20 to get the reward, no matter the existence of the other participants or not. Big chance comes with big price, and by "giving" many tickets, you increase your "long term value" the exact same as you reduce it, only variation is on the risk.

If ticket price is 700k, and if there are 20 tickets, buying a ticket will always be a 700k "long term expected value". And if the host of the lottery wants to hold a ticket, hiding it with unknown account or not, he just pays 700k by not earning them (think about value), and for it, he gets the same chance anybody would get for that value.

 

To show you how absurd your complain is, just compare it to a game :

You have 99 chances out of 100 to win 1$ but 1 chance out of 100 to lose 99$, do you call it a scam ?

By taking his own tickets, the host plays the exact same game any other participant plays.

 

Would be absurd to call someone a scammer because he takes 90 tickets out of the 100 of your lottery. Same concept.

 

Only exception would be if the host put a limit on tickets you can get. Then it would create an inequality, but as I know, it's not the case here.

 

But well, as pointed, we can suggest the rule :

 

Ticket limitation is not allowed.

 

Because it creates irregularity in tickets value.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[razimove]

1 hour ago, Raederz said:

Huh ? The draw is made by a staff member, who holds the shinies, you know ?

Buying a ticket out of twenty is 1 chance out of 20 to get the reward, no matter the existence of the other participants or not. Big chance comes with big price, and by "giving" many tickets, you increase your "long term value" the exact same as you reduce it, only variation is on the risk.

If ticket price is 700k, and if there are 20 tickets, buying a ticket will always be a 700k "long term expected value". And if the host of the lottery wants to hold a ticket, hiding it with unknown account or not, he just pays 700k by not earning them (think about value), and for it, he gets the same chance anybody would get for that value.

 

To show you how absurd your complain is, just compare it to a game :

You have 99 chances out of 100 to win 1$ but 1 chance out of 100 to lose 99$, do you call it a scam ?

By taking his own tickets, the host plays the exact same game any other participant plays.

 

Would be absurd to call someone a scammer because he takes 90 tickets out of the 100 of your lottery. Same concept.

 

Only exception would be if the host put a limit on tickets you can get. Then it would create an inequality, but as I know, it's not the case here.

 

But well, as pointed, we can suggest the rule :

 

Ticket limitation is not allowed.

 

Because it creates irregularity in tickets value.

You're not understanding.

What prevents me from creating an 100 ticket lottery, gifting 20 tickets to a team member, who I will then share profits win, since 20% is actually quite a big chunk, and laugh at others who wasted money? Lotteries are to easy to be rigged, if they don't require you to show you're real, or that you're really interested in it, even then, it will still be to easy to rig a lottery.

Therefor, the cash should always be sent to the moderator in charge of the lottery, and not to the person itself. Only way to make it real.

Edited May 21, 2018 by redspawn

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

 

15 hours ago, redspawn said:

You're not understanding.

What prevents me from creating an 100 ticket lottery, gifting 20 tickets to a team member, who I will then share profits win, since 20% is actually quite a big chunk, and laugh at others who wasted money? Lotteries are to easy to be rigged, if they don't require you to show you're real, or that you're really interested in it, even then, it will still be to easy to rig a lottery.

Therefor, the cash should always be sent to the moderator in charge of the lottery, and not to the person itself. Only way to make it real.

 

Well I understand but you dont^^

Giving 20 tickets of the 100 wont change anything for all other participants. They still have the same odds to win. And if the host wants to be nice with his team members, it's his choice, because he is the only one who loses something doing this.

This is not rigged, and this is really far from what rigged means.

 

Maybe what you dont understand is "when you can get money, and, by your choice, you dont, it IS a loss". When the host give a ticket to a friend, it is the exact equivalent as giving him $s for him to pay the ticket.

 

As I already said, but maybe you did not read, theorical gains, and loss of the host, by doing it, are the exact same. If you do it in purpose to scam, you're an idiot, because the only person you scam is yourself.

 

Imma give you an exemple :

 

A guy runs 100 lotteries but always give 20 tickets (out of 100) to a friend, who give him back the prize if he wins. Each tickets cost 10k

After 100 lotteries, he will have earned 80.000.000$, and lost 80 prizes (80% of the 100 because he holds 20% of the tickets, this is the most likely and only theorically usable value)

And from the vision of a player who always buy 10 tickets, after 100 lotteries, he lost 10.000.000$ and won 10 prizes.

 

Now take another host who just runs 80 lotteries of the same gift, ticket number and price, but dont give anything to friends.

At the end, he earned 80.000.000$ and lost 80 prizes. Exact same as above.

And for the player, after 80 lotteries, he lost 8.000.000$ and won 8 prizes, exact same proportion.

(If this second host makes 20 more lotteries, the player also gets the exact same result as above.)

 

What you are talking about is not a scam. It is just a waste of time for the host, who is the only person affected.

 

_____________

 

Being rigged or not is about how the draw is done. Moderators have total power on it. One ticket gives a known chance to win the price. You don't need to know who took the others tickets, as soon as you got your ticket, giving more importance to other participants is just jealousy and/or fear of the random.

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[CZD]

I agree with redspawn though, what if someone holds a lottery and gives 90% of the tickets to themself, using alts ? there would be a 10% chance of losing ofc, and in that case, they'd only get 10% of the value, so they'd actually lose money. but 9 times out of 10 (which is rly likely to happen) they'd get easy money from the other 10% of people who actually rly bought tickets from them. AND, they'd keep the shiny...

[razimove]

4 hours ago, Raederz said:

Well I understand but you dont^^

Giving 20 tickets of the 100 wont change anything for all other participants. They still have the same odds to win. And if the host wants to be nice with his team members, it's his choice, because he is the only one who loses something doing this.

This is not rigged, and this is really far from what rigged means.

 

Maybe what you dont understand is "when you can get money, and, by your choice, you dont, it IS a loss". When the host give a ticket to a friend, it is the exact equivalent as giving him $s for him to pay the ticket.

 

As I already said, but maybe you did not read, theorical gains, and loss of the host, by doing it, are the exact same. If you do it in purpose to scam, you're an idiot, because the only person you scam is yourself.

 

Imma give you an exemple :

 

A guy runs 100 lotteries but always give 20 tickets (out of 100) to a friend, who give him back the prize if he wins. Each tickets cost 10k

After 100 lotteries, he will have earned 80.000.000$, and lost 80 prizes (80% of the 100 because he holds 20% of the tickets, this is the most likely and only theorically usable value)

And from the vision of a player who always buy 10 tickets, after 100 lotteries, he lost 10.000.000$ and won 10 prizes.

 

Now take another host who just runs 80 lotteries of the same gift, ticket number and price, but dont give anything to friends.

At the end, he earned 80.000.000$ and lost 80 prizes. Exact same as above.

And for the player, after 80 lotteries, he lost 8.000.000$ and won 8 prizes, exact same proportion.

(If this second host makes 20 more lotteries, the player also gets the exact same result as above.)

 

What you are talking about is not a scam. It is just a waste of time for the host, who is the only person affected.

 

_____________

 

Being rigged or not is about how the draw is done. Moderators have total power on it. One ticket gives a known chance to win the price. You don't need to know who took the others tickets, as soon as you got your ticket, giving more importance to other participants is just jealousy and/or fear of the random.

Lol, you do not understand how something is rigged apparently. Giving yourself, 20% chance, or even 50%, is more than enough to ruin a lottery for everyone. A guy runs 100 lotteries, but out of those, he gives 20 tickets of every to a friend, there's a good chance, that said friend will win 20 of those lotteries, and they'll both laugh at the stupid people who invested. He never lost cash, he just profited more. Just make a lottery where the fair price of the item, is held by 80 tickets, so those 20 tickets are what we'll call 'extras'

Total value = 80 tickets -> 80% chance someone legit will win

Extra = 20 tickets -> 20% chance your friend or even you, will get it

Understand something, if there's a chance that the host can rig the lottery, means the lottery holds no value for someone else who might had potential interest in taking part. Dude it's litteraly 1+1, is it that hard to understand?

You say 'they still have a odd' well, no shit, if you take part of a 100 ticket lottery in which 99 tickets belong to the owner alt, and that 1 ticket is yours, you still have 1% odd, does that make you a fair deal, or have a fair chance? When you wasted cash, and those 99 didnt?

____

Using a claw machine as example, you have a slim chance of winning aswell :) Is it not rigged?

Edited May 22, 2018 by redspawn

[Raederz]

 

Spoiler

 

Sorry Redspawn i wont repeat myself again and again, its mathematics and without knowning you, you make me think it's not part of your life anymore. Dont want to be rude but this discussion is around a pretty trivial concept, and you're wrong about it.

2 hours ago, CZD said:

I agree with redspawn though, what if someone holds a lottery and gives 90% of the tickets to themself, using alts ? there would be a 10% chance of losing ofc, and in that case, they'd only get 10% of the value, so they'd actually lose money. but 9 times out of 10 (which is rly likely to happen) they'd get easy money from the other 10% of people who actually rly bought tickets from them. AND, they'd keep the shiny...

 

This is the exact same as if someone bought 90 tickets.

getting 9 times of 10, 10% of the value of the gift (because he will never be paid for the 90 tickets he blocked) is, in term of long term value, the exact same as getting everytime 100% of the value.

 

Blocking tickets, for the host, just makes him losing time.

 

Just count.

 

By blocking 90 tickets/100 on 100 lotteries, he just makes as much profit as 10 lotteries, and loses an average of 10 prizes. The exact same as running 10 lotteries without blocking any tickets. So, same result, what is the scam ?

 

It well known that anything in maths related to probability causes perception biais to uninformed people. Just look at the calculus, it is the only proof.

 

_________________

 

In lotteries where ticket prices are fixed, an enlightene person would theorically either buy all tickets or none of them, because by claiming one ticket you make the assumption "The price of the ticket is worth the chance it gives me to win". Which means taking another ticket is still worth it, until there is no tickets left.

Theorically, the only question is "How is the total price, for all tickets, compared to the value of the prize ?"

 

But we dont act like this in real life, either because we're not informed enought, or because of emotions, or even because our main goal is not always pure profit.

 

What you need to know to get that what you talking about has nothing to deal with a scam or a rigged lottery, is that the "risk" is a coefficient, that needs to be affected by the value it gives, to be interpreted.

1*100 is the exact same as 2*50, and the exact same as 20*5

By giving half the tickets, you also let go half the value.

 

If you dont understand this, I dont know what I can do more to explain you. But I'm not the one who dont understand, I do my best to say it in english, in an understandable way for someone uninformed, but this part of what I study everyday, and it's been a while the notions here as ok for me. So ye, im not the one misunderstanding.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[razimove]

17 minutes ago, Raederz said:

Sorry Redspawn i wont repeat myself again and again, its mathematics and without knowning you, you make me think it's not part of your life anymore. Dont want to be rude but this discussion is around a pretty trivial concept, and you're wrong about it.

xD mathematics in a concept as simple as this, don't want to be rude, but yeah, you're not the brightest.

Well, who am I to try to open the eyes of those who don't want to see.

 

19 minutes ago, Raederz said:

Blocking tickets, for the host, just makes him losing time.

No it doenst make him lose time, in fact, makes it faster since it's 10 less tickets someone has to buy, as long as you don't say it's for yourself so you remain anonymous.

I won't make a drawing since my drawing skills are, well, miserable at best.

Person A holds lottery.

Person B is friend of person A.

Person C is any of the potential interested people in this given lottery.
___ 

 

Person A, holds a 100m shiny lottery to a shiny worth 80m.

Person B, the friend goes in, takes the 'free' previously agreed tickets with person A, aka 20 of those tickets. So now in theory, there's 80m of potential income to the owner, and a 20% chance he retrieves his shiny.
 

Person C, not knowing that, goes in, and not knowing the situation, buys 10 tickets.

___

Now from prespectives. To the person C, without knowing, pretty fine, he can walk away with nothing, knowing he took a risk.

From the owners perspective, he just made 80m, with a chance of making 160m, without effort, with only the effort to make it rigged.

Is this to hard of a concept to understand for you Raederz?

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

49 minutes ago, redspawn said:

Person A, holds a 100m shiny lottery to a shiny worth 80m

wow it's different now, here must be why we disagree.

 

In all this thread i've been assuming that the prize is worth the TOTAL PRICE, for all tickets.

 

If the total price is higher than the prize value, then I see what you call a scam. It's kinda true. But still, people who claim tickets know what they buy, it's their choice to find it overvalued or not.

 

(btw here, the long term profit of the host still does not depend on blocking ticket or not, and will always be 20m. Because 20*1=0.2*100)

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[Goku]

2 minutes ago, redspawn said:

xD mathematics in a concept as simple as this, don't want to be rude, but yeah, you're not the brightest.

Well, who am I to try to open the eyes of those who don't want to see.

 

No it doenst make him lose time, in fact, makes it faster since it's 10 less tickets someone has to buy, as long as you don't say it's for yourself so you remain anonymous.

I won't make a drawing since my drawing skills are, well, miserable at best.

Person A holds lottery.

Person B is friend of person A.

Person C is any of the potential interested people in this given lottery.
___ 

 

Person A, holds a 100m shiny lottery to a shiny worth 80m.

Person B, the friend goes in, takes the 'free' previously agreed tickets with person A, aka 20 of those tickets. So now in theory, there's 80m of potential income to the owner, and a 20% chance he retrieves his shiny.
 

Person C, not knowing that, goes in, and not knowing the situation, buys 10 tickets.

___

Now from prespectives. To the person C, without knowing, pretty fine, he can walk away with nothing, knowing he took a risk.

From the owners perspective, he just made 80m, with a chance of making 160m, without effort, with only the effort to make it rigged.

Is this to hard of a concept to understand for you Raederz?

So basically makes 80mil either way + chance to win back the shiny for free. This is kind of a problem lol. What if he pays for those 20 tickets?  That'd be fair?

[Raederz]

Spoiler

43 minutes ago, Goku said:

So basically makes 80mil either way + chance to win back the shiny for free. This is kind of a problem lol. What if he pays for those 20 tickets?  That'd be fair?

He actually "pays". By giving a chance for his shiny to be given to the winner, it corresponds to put value on all the tickets, which is why he is the paid guy, by people claiming tickets.

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[razimove]

4 minutes ago, Goku said:

So basically makes 80mil either way + chance to win back the shiny for free. This is kind of a problem lol. What if he pays for those 20 tickets?  That'd be fair?

How can you pay lets say 20 tickets to yourself? If this was held by a moderator, entirely, meaning responsability goes under the wings of any moderator/CM/wtv, lotteries would be in a way better position. Also, something liek what happen with a few lotteries, where they last for months due to lack of activity by the owner, wouldn't happen.

 

4 minutes ago, Raederz said:

In all this thread i've been assuming that the prize is worth the TOTAL PRICE, for all tickets.

 

This is exactly why I linked that thread as an example. Guy wanted 20m for 10m worth of shinies.

Edited May 22, 2018 by redspawn

[Goku]

1 minute ago, Raederz said:

He actually "pays". By giving a chance for his shiny to be given to the winner, it corresponds to put value on all the tickets, which is why he is the paid guy, by people claiming tickets.

You're not getting what Redspawn said. Let me put it this way you are in a struggle to get rid of a 80mil shiny. You host this lottery and make it 100mil. 20 of your tickets is being awarded for free to teammates. This being said you are making 80 mil which was what you wanted and you also have a 20% chance to win back your shiny granted your teammates who win will give it back to you.

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

38 minutes ago, redspawn said:

This is exactly why I linked that thread as an example. Guy wanted 20m for 10m worth of shinies.

 

Selling something over its value is not considered as scam on this forum.

And I've seen nobody complaining about his price, which already happened on other lotteries.

 

Also, the price I see is 700k per ticket, making it 14m total.

Maybe he changed it ? Then you could have precised it, and then, you can also note that I've already suggested a rule about it.

 

 

Spoiler

36 minutes ago, Goku said:

You're not getting what Redspawn said. Let me put it this way you are in a struggle to get rid of a 80mil shiny. You host this lottery and make it 100mil. 20 of your tickets is being awarded for free to teammates. This being said you are making 80 mil which was what you wanted and you also have a 20% chance to win back your shiny granted your teammates who win will give it back to you.

 

 

You also have a 80% to lose the opportunity to sell your shiny for 100m and only sell it 80m most of the time. This loss, considering coefficients, has the exact same value as what you could win. (0.8*20 = 0.2*80)

 

 

Here is a drawing that will explain stuff better. As soon as the total ticket price is over the prize value, long term profit will be positive, but changing strategies about holding tickets or not will never affect it.

 

Situation 1 :

Holds 20 tickets of his lottery, if he gets the shiny, then he makes it again, but sell all the tickets.

Situation 2 :

He directly sell all tickets.

 

We could chain the first part of situation 1 to infinite re-holding but it would just make a convergent serie, and give same long term profit. I dont wanna put this on paint but well, isnt it enought to understand ?

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[Risadex]

 

<IMO>They should just remove lotteries from forums. Its just a lazy method of trying to get proofit while getting escaped from currency value in game </IMO>

[Goku]

The thing about a lottery is that there should be the amount made of what all tickets would cost. You can't host a 100mil lottery and somewhere 20mil is missing???

[razimove]

5 minutes ago, Raederz said:

And I've seen nobody complaining about his price, which already happened on other lotteries.

People complained, they deleted literally, I got a warning and so did others, I believe, for writting something 'non related' with buying tickets twice. He might have changed, it was 1m/ticket. And even at 700k ticket, it's 14m for a 10m lottery.

Thing is, definition of scam, will be different from mouth to mouth, it's not something easily discussed.

But yeah, let's kill the discussion since we won't profit anything from continuing it.

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

27 minutes ago, redspawn said:

People complained, they deleted literally, I got a warning and so did others, I believe, for writting something 'non related' with buying tickets twice. He might have changed, it was 1m/ticket. And even at 700k ticket, it's 14m for a 10m lottery.

Thing is, definition of scam, will be different from mouth to mouth, it's not something easily discussed.

But yeah, let's kill the discussion since we won't profit anything from continuing it.

Well only ppl you can blame here are those who bought tickets because they made it legit.

Just the same as people who lowball uninformed noobs are not punihsed but in a smoother way.

Value are never easy to set, and not even same from everyones' vision.

 

If you wanna talk about the definition of a scam,  then this lottery is not a scam

 

You get scammed when you're looking for a trade, and you finally dont get what you're promised to.

Here, buying one ticket is 1/20 chance to get the prize.

No matter if theres ticket blocking, a ticket IS 1/20 chance, and if you win, you actually get the prize. No scam.

 

Sad to ear that you prefer kill the discussion than accepting the evidence, I even gave you numbers, are you gonna say 2+2 is 5 ?

 

___________

 

If your problem is about ticket blocking :

Evidence is, ticket blocking does NOT affect lottery value.

 

If your problem is about tickets price regarding the prize :

Quote

(1) When the host private message the moderator, can be refused, according reasons such as :

- Invaild prize

Any prize that is not adapted to lotteries. Such as "lava cookie lottery", "1*31 field egg group breeder lottery". Lotteries are an investment (in time and effort) for both the host and the moderator, it must be reserved for valuable stuff. Also should disable lotteries for stuff like shiny eevee or highly limited items. Prevents high risks of failing lottery, give legitimity to the effort given by moderators on making lotteries possible.

- Invalid price

Total price of the tickets is way too high regarding the prize. Prevents high risks of failing lottery.

- Any other reason that may give the lottery an high risk of failing.

Any refusal will be directly discussed between the moderator and the host.

this was in the main post since the beggining.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[Raederz]

fail to be deleted

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[razimove]

8 minutes ago, Raederz said:

than accepting the evidence

Just curious to what evidence that my point of view is wrong. So far I saw a lot of gibberish, talking about odds, but not addressing the point.

You also have a chance at winning on a claw machine, but it doens't make money with you winning. They're using the same principle as casinos, house always wins. Idk how that is so hard for you to understand, such a easy concept. Keep people hooked by the 'chance' of getting something, and make it interesting so a lot of those will show. A scam, like you said, can be a situation in which something you were promised isnt what you get. But it can also be a situation, in which the odds are rigged. Tl;Dr; anything that plays with odds, gives you a chance at being scammed, there's multiple factors that can influence this. I could go on with odds and show you a variety of examples, but I don't think I really need or do I? There's 2 perspectives always to things, in the case, the consumer and the seller, the seller is there laughing that the dumb consumer bought tickets on his rigged lottery, the consumer is there laughing that he has a chance at winning, this happens everywhere, not only here, but here it's kind of a bigger problem since, they're under 0 supervision and moderators are just holding the shiny and using the randomizer in the end.


Also, a 100m example doens't need to be this large, can be a 10m example, in which the shiny is worth 9m or even 9.5m. That was a big example, so you could understand better. So that rule of yours has flaws.

Edited May 22, 2018 by redspawn

[Raederz]

Spoiler

 

Odds are coefficients you have to multiply to know the real values.

Machines can let customers be long term winners, casino ones are just programmed to make them lose, setting these coefficients in what makes the casino win.

 

Again, the odds are not rigged here. There was 20 tickets, an uniform law, and every participant got 1/20 chance per ticket.

 

You will never getting if you keep thinking "a chance ... a chance ... a chance .." over than "a chance", people who make profit know to interprate the random part, and here are probabilites. If you dont take it in account, dont talk about rigged stuff or not.

Dont mix "one time winning" and "long term winnnig", best way to ruin yourself.

Quote

Just curious to what evidence that my point of view is wrong

see above "if your...

First point is wrong, second is discutable (And I''d be on your side for this one, but staff is not considering lowballing is not punished, btw, for practical reasons, they're kinda right too)

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Raederz

[Tyrone]

Readerz is right here, but it's difficult to explain to a non-economist.

He assumes price of lottery tickets × number of lottery tickets = lottery prize value.

Arguing this assumption is pointless.

Now the thing that is counterintuitive is that 'giving 20% of the tickets for free to teammates' also reduces your income by 20%. You're using your teammates to buy a risk reduction (risk hedging), since you aren't gaining any money directly.

Statistically, hedging that risk has no impact on the win percentage of participants, cause buying 10% of tickets always provides 10% win chance.

 

Additional edit:

Even more counterintuitive is that risk hedging an "expensive" lottery results in even less profit than a fair one.
Expensive lottery being: Lottery prize value < Ticket price + number of tickets.
If you sell all the tickets normally, you'd gain the difference between those two as "scam amount (not really but people like to call it that)"

If you hedge 20% of the tickets, you lose 20% of that "scam amount" by not selling them.

 

So it would actually make more sense from the host perspective to make a "cheap lottery" where Lottery prize value > Ticket price + number of tickets, and give free tickets to team members.

In that situation, hedging risk is more profitable.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Tyrone