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AxellBlizard

Shiny discussion rate

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37 minutes ago, Malorne said:

yeee, as if people weren't leppa, ss spamming for horde shinies already.....

obviously someone has not heard of rng abuse

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Well this is very interesting, I have played many Pokemon games, not an expert here, and i have never seen a shiny ever!! so the only thing we can do is check how people got their shiny, is there a pattern or is it truly RNG. When people say shiny hunting what do you mean exactly? In a situation with endless variables how can you hunt?

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As someone who has been religiously shiny hunting since Unova I am going to post my findings, id argue having probably one of the largest Unova shiny pools behind Jonulo I have some solid info to share. For the sake of this argument I am also going to include a vulpix hunt I did 2 months prior to Unova and my Ariados hunt which I did at the start of 2017

 

I started off at 12500 berries, hunting for shiny Deino and getting nothing but shiny Durants. The encounter rate is roughly 50/50, so assuming law of averages I am getting 8 encounters per berry (3 for Deino, 5 for Durant)

 

I am down to just under 2500, meaning that over the course of that 10000 berries I should be in the 80000 region

 

Of that 80000 I have 3 shinies however the last came at the 3400 berries remaining mark with a donator status applied constantly. Meaning that I was around 72800 encounters roughly. Giving me a rate of roughly 1/24267 WITH donator

 

However, this again varies. My first durant came at roughly 1600 berries (1/12800)

My second durant came 2400 berries later (1/19200)

My third durant, which was absolutely obscene I spent around 5100 berries more to get there (1/40800)

 

My shiny Vulpix which I hunted BEFORE unova came in around 800 berries (10 encounters per berry = 1/8000) WITHOUT donator

My shiny Ariados which I hunted early 2017 came in at 300 berries (fookin luck 1/3000 ish) WITHOUT donator

 

This shows a number of things:

 

1: I can do quik mafs

 

2: Getting a shiny is some hard luck

 

3: My rate slowly trending up is intentional, or awfully convenient.

 

4: Despite some poor statistics including Vulpix and Ariados because encounters before the berries were not tracked (for arguments sake tack on 5000 for minor breeding and two rounds of EV training). Shiny hunting decreases shiny encounter rate. 

 

5: Devs prove me wrong

Edited by DoctorPBC

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13 hours ago, Xatu said:

long ago we had a dynamic r8 with factors like: does the game think you are botting, how new are you, etc.  Its been said recently that they undid that system and that the rate has been static for years now.

Where was this? Has anyone else heard of this?

 

Last actual fact about the shiny rate I saw was that it was not static, after years of them advertising in the in-game FAQ that it was 1/8192 and 1/7k if you used donator status.

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9 hours ago, sephiroth1977 said:

Not here to offend. But maybe you are the perfect person to run this experiment. As you said yourself. Your "famous". Its not about the cash. Its to prove a point 

If you are right then it proves that everyone has different rates and its not math. But if your wrong and im right then it proves everyone has the same rates and just overestimating their encounters

 

Win/Win. 

Bruh he been here since 2012. I can guarantee you the odds differ, because I have personally hunted on multiple alts and different accounts. @RysPicz has over 8k hours and 1 ot. I've seen players get a shiny their first hour and up to 5 shinies in less then 100 hours. No one has the same rates because it's not static.

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7 hours ago, DoctorPBC said:

Shiny hunting decreases shiny encounter rate. 

i could see this being true becaus i curently have 3 shiny OT and i never shiny hunted anything,i just didnt avoid grass much and very rarely used repel. but if the thing about the game thinking you are boting would lower the rate is true, then that would explain my luck a bit since i have a natural tendency to move in a random patern

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8 hours ago, awkways said:

Where was this? Has anyone else heard of this?

 

Last actual fact about the shiny rate I saw was that it was not static, after years of them advertising in the in-game FAQ that it was 1/8192 and 1/7k if you used donator status.

Kyu actually said something like that in 2015 in a thread, cba to search for it. Although I, or anyone, don't know the exact factors that alter your shiny rate. Botting is the only one he refered to iirc.

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1 minute ago, redspawn said:

Kyu actually said something like that in 2015 in a thread, cba to search for it. Although I, or anyone, don't know the exact factors that alter your shiny rate. Botting is the only one he refered to iirc.

 

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We modify the odds based on two factors right now: Anti-cheat (which reduces your rate), and Donator Status (which increases it). The anti-cheat metrics don't apply to the vast majority of players, and they are temporary in-game. There is no permanent "cursing" of odds, and odds are not modified based on simple things like "how many encounters you do in-game"; it's an automated process testing for 3rd-party software which is botting on the player's behalf.

  • Some things, like scripted events, have a 0% chance to be shiny (this encompasses "Gifts", scripted encounters, and custom species like Elfbots).
  • Each player has the same "base rate" which we modify against. This hasn't been changed in a while, but it's currently 1/30k and we probably won't change it again. This results in around 0.005%~0.01% of the playerbase encountering shinies every day. There is no special modifications done per-species or anything, so everything has the same chance at being shiny.

As a reminder, shiny hunting is a gamble. There is no promise of a reward and there is no "win condition" to be satisfied which will make you win. It's not likely, but you can definitely roll the dice infinitely and come up with nothing, or you can get a shiny on your first encounter, because that's how independent odds work. You have the same odds on your first compared to your 100,000th wild encounter (provided that you didn't get dinged with anti-cheat, or you didn't turn on Donator Status).

 

Increasing the amount of encounters you do via hordes will give you more opportunities to win, but you will never have a 100% chance to win. The only guaranteed shinies come from official event rewards like PvP.

Edited by Kyu

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6 minutes ago, Kyu said:

We modify the odds based on two factors right now: Anti-cheat (which reduces your rate), and Donator Status (which increases it). The anti-cheat metrics don't apply to the vast majority of players, and they are temporary in-game. There is no permanent "cursing" of odds, and odds are not modified based on simple things like "how many encounters you do in-game"; it's an automated process testing for 3rd-party software which is botting on the player's behalf.

  • Some things, like scripted events, have a 0% chance to be shiny (this encompasses "Gifts", scripted encounters, and custom species like Elfbots).
  • Each player has the same "base rate" which we modify against. This hasn't been changed in a while, but it's currently 1/30k and we probably won't change it again. This results in around 0.005%~0.01% of the playerbase encountering shinies every day. There is no special modifications done per-species or anything, so everything has the same chance at being shiny.

As a reminder, shiny hunting is a gamble. There is no promise of a reward and there is no "win condition" to be satisfied which will make you win. It's not likely, but you can definitely roll the dice infinitely and come up with nothing, or you can get a shiny on your first encounter, because that's how independent odds work. You have the same odds on your first compared to your 100,000th wild encounter (provided that you didn't get dinged with anti-cheat, or you didn't turn on Donator Status).

 

Increasing the amount of encounters you do via hordes will give you more opportunities to win, but you will never have a 100% chance to win. The only guaranteed shinies come from official event rewards like PvP.

Out of curiosity, do you guys ever check if the players who are 'targeted' are legit or not? This seems a bit broken, depending on how good or bad your algorithm is, the 1/30k seems a bit off, for both me and many others.

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1 minute ago, redspawn said:

Out of curiosity, do you guys ever check if the players who are 'targeted' are legit or not? This seems a bit broken, depending on how good or bad your algorithm is, the 1/30k seems a bit off, for both me and many others.

Yes. Automated "cursing" has a limited duration, is only triggered in very specific circumstances, and we have yet to find a person who complained about odds to be affected by it (yourself included, as-of this post).

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2 minutes ago, sherdoonach said:

@Kyu any plans to take certain unova species out of hordes? I'm mainly referring to axew and deino here.

What has your question to do with shiny rates?

 

Hijacking a tread ain't very nice you know.

Edited by Heineken88

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1 minute ago, Heineken88 said:

What has your question to do with shiny rates?

 

Hijacking a tread ain't very nice you know.

the question was answered above already. 

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1 minute ago, sherdoonach said:

@Kyu any plans to take certain unova species out of hordes? I'm mainly referring to axew and deino here.

We'll probably review hordes sometime soon, but there's no plans as to what's to be added or removed.

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2 minutes ago, sherdoonach said:

the question was answered above already. 

Still, you do not hijack. Next time be nice and make your own.

Edited by Heineken88

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1 minute ago, Heineken88 said:

Still, you do not hijack. Next time be nice and make your own.

well I thought it was a question somewhat related to the discussion and wasn't worth making a new thread over when it could be answered here. anyway calling me out for a string of posts is also hijacking the thread so its a bit hypocritical for you to say.

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53 minutes ago, Kyu said:

provided that you didn't get dinged with anti-cheat

Is that the auto-captcha or?

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