Everstone rates

[sweendogforums]

Right here we go again. Anybody else think the nerds... I mean the devs have changed the rates again. Something feels a bit off with stone hunting. 80 geodudes at 5% with no stone is mathematically insane, and it's something that happens on the regular. They've lied before probably will again dodgy guys dont trust. Bad luck or scum devs, thoughts? 

[Kaerodactyl]

28 minutes ago, sweendogforums said:

Right here we go again. Anybody else think the nerds... I mean the devs have changed the rates again. Something feels a bit off with stone hunting. 80 geodudes at 5% with no stone is mathematically insane, and it's something that happens on the regular. They've lied before probably will again dodgy guys dont trust. Bad luck or scum devs, thoughts? 

It is a mystery once again. It not worth hunting imo, it is faster grinding money with npc and buy everstones on gtl ^^

[HowLXG]

Yeah everstone farming (and shard / tutor item) is for nerds xdddd

[Xatu]

1 hour ago, sweendogforums said:

Right here we go again. Anybody else think the nerds... I mean the devs have changed the rates again. Something feels a bit off with stone hunting. 80 geodudes at 5% with no stone is mathematically insane, and it's something that happens on the regular. They've lied before probably will again dodgy guys dont trust. Bad luck or scum devs, thoughts? 

5% of finding them means you have a 95% chance of never finding one for the rest of your life.

 

The more you know

[Gunthug]

8 minutes ago, Xatu said:

5% of finding them means you have a 95% chance of never finding one for the rest of your life.

 

The more you know

That's not even close to true 

[WildHodor]

Actually had never so few everstones... maybe 1 in 30 if I got really bad luck. 

[razimove]

Just conspiracy theories, 5% is still a low chance, you have 5% in each geodude, it doens't sum, aka they are independent rolls, you can go 3000 geodudes without a single if you're unlucky, even tho this is probably rarer than hitting the lottery. Just get a good sample, like lets say 1000 thiefs, and check how many everstones you got out of it.

[Xatu]

2 hours ago, Gunthug said:

That's not even close to true 

How is that not true?  Can you not subtract 5 from 100?

[Gunthug]

4 minutes ago, Xatu said:

How is that not true?  Can you not subtract 5 from 100?

Lol ok let's use your logic. You have a 50% chance of flipping a coin and it lands on heads. Does that mean if you flip a coin the rest of your life there's a 50% chance you'll never see tails? Odds don't work the way you think they work 

[Raederz]

If you do 80 geodudes a day, everyday, with a 5% rate, during one year (365 days), you will have 6 "shit days" with no everstone. (average. May be 5 days if u lucky)

 

not that insane

 

1.65% for it to happen

Edited August 30, 2017 by Raederz

[Kaerodactyl]

10 minutes ago, Raederz said:

If you do 80 geodudes a day, everyday, with a 5% rate, during one year (365 days), you will have 6 "shit days" with no everstone. (average. May be 5 days if u lucky)

 

not that insane

 

1.65% for it to happen

[KaynineXL]

1 hour ago, Gunthug said:

Lol ok let's use your logic. You have a 50% chance of flipping a coin and it lands on heads. Does that mean if you flip a coin the rest of your life there's a 50% chance you'll never see tails? Odds don't work the way you think they work 

It's only true if you flip the coin once

 

Since you're obviously encountering Gravelers periodically, the logic couldn't be more wrong.

[DarylDixon]

5 hours ago, HowLXG said:

Yeah everstone farming (and shard / tutor item) is for nerds xdddd

@Ahreum

[Ahreum]

7 hours ago, DarylDixon said:

@Ahreum

Da, it's for nerds like you :ss

[Riesz]

On 8/31/2017 at 0:27 AM, sweendogforums said:

Right here we go again. Anybody else think the nerds... I mean the devs have changed the rates again. Something feels a bit off with stone hunting. 80 geodudes at 5% with no stone is mathematically insane, and it's something that happens on the regular. They've lied before probably will again dodgy guys dont trust. Bad luck or scum devs, thoughts? 

this sounds perfectly normal to me, thats why I only buy them nowadays

[Gilan]

On 8/30/2017 at 3:15 PM, redspawn said:

you can go 3000 geodudes without a single if you're unlucky

Being someone whose major is based around statistics and probability, I really dislike these sort of statements that people seem to love to post online whenever probability is brought up (Desu did it in a thread a while back).

 

While this statement is theoretically true, in all practicality it is false. The math for this happening is .95^3000 =

1.48189E-67

To put this number into perspective, you have a 1/290million chance at winning America's Powerball lottery. Which, written in the same notation, is:

3.44828E-09

 

So this (1.48189E-67) is the theoretical number of the chance of this occurring. Now, we must take into account that the human race has yet to ever observe a single event that is truly random; so while we can imagine it in theory, we've never actually seen something that is random. Everything that we have and continue to observe acts according to a pattern. Computers are no exception. As a result, this imaginary scenario where you don't get a single everstone in 3000 consecutive geodudes is practically not possible.

 

Still don't believe me? Learn python or any coding language, write a short script that will simulate this process and tell it to stop once it has encountered 3000 consecutive geodudes without an everstone. It can compute more of these trials in 1 second than you can do in your lifetime. Let it run and see how long it takes to finish. Spoiler alert, I built it and have had it running for 30mins now.

 

So no, you won't go 3000 geodudes without a single everstone.

[Gunthug]

2 hours ago, Gilan said:

Being someone whose major is based around statistics and probability, I really dislike these sort of statements that people seem to love to post online whenever probability is brought up (Desu did it in a thread a while back).

 

While this statement is theoretically true, in all practicality it is false. The math for this happening is .95^3000 =

1.48189E-67

To put this number into perspective, you have a 1/290million chance at winning America's Powerball lottery. Which, written in the same notation, is:

3.44828E-09

 

So this (1.48189E-67) is the theoretical number of the chance of this occurring. Now, we must take into account that the human race has yet to ever observe a single event that is truly random; so while we can imagine it in theory, we've never actually seen something that is random. Everything that we have and continue to observe acts according to a pattern. Computers are no exception. As a result, this imaginary scenario where you don't get a single everstone in 3000 consecutive geodudes is practically not possible.

 

Still don't believe me? Learn python or any coding language, write a short script that will simulate this process and tell it to stop once it has encountered 3000 consecutive geodudes without an everstone. It can compute more of these trials in 1 second than you can do in your lifetime. Let it run and see how long it takes to finish. Spoiler alert, I built it and have had it running for 30mins now.

 

So no, you won't go 3000 geodudes without a single everstone.

Can you not subtract 5 from 100?

[razimove]

3 hours ago, Gilan said:

Being someone whose major is based around statistics and probability, I really dislike these sort of statements that people seem to love to post online whenever probability is brought up (Desu did it in a thread a while back).

 

While this statement is theoretically true, in all practicality it is false. The math for this happening is .95^3000 =

1.48189E-67

To put this number into perspective, you have a 1/290million chance at winning America's Powerball lottery. Which, written in the same notation, is:

3.44828E-09

 

So this (1.48189E-67) is the theoretical number of the chance of this occurring. Now, we must take into account that the human race has yet to ever observe a single event that is truly random; so while we can imagine it in theory, we've never actually seen something that is random. Everything that we have and continue to observe acts according to a pattern. Computers are no exception. As a result, this imaginary scenario where you don't get a single everstone in 3000 consecutive geodudes is practically not possible.

 

Still don't believe me? Learn python or any coding language, write a short script that will simulate this process and tell it to stop once it has encountered 3000 consecutive geodudes without an everstone. It can compute more of these trials in 1 second than you can do in your lifetime. Let it run and see how long it takes to finish. Spoiler alert, I built it and have had it running for 30mins now.

 

So no, you won't go 3000 geodudes without a single everstone.

Like I said after that, it's probably rarer than hitting the lottery,  about 2.5 times rarer I guess(european lottery speaking), I meant as an example only. 
-> Web development major here, I do know my fair share aswell, python, js, flask, django, asp.net wise. I just meant that they are independent rolls, aka, you can get 5 everstones in a row if RNG allows you, just like you can go 5 thieves without a single one, this is what I mean, statistic/probability wise, I do not remember much, but my statement is not that far of the truth I believe?

[Gilan]

5 minutes ago, redspawn said:

Like I said after that, it's probably rarer than hitting the lottery,  about 2.5 times rarer I guess(european lottery speaking), I meant as an example only. 
-> Web development major here, I do know my fair share aswell, python, js, flask, django, asp.net wise. I just meant that they are independent rolls, aka, you can get 5 everstones in a row if RNG allows you, just like you can go 5 thieves without a single one, this is what I mean, statistic/probability wise, I do not remember much, but my statement is not that far of the truth I believe?

Your statement is completely true from a theoretical standpoint. But when you look at it from a practical standpoint it loses a lot of meaning and importance. My point was that the: "it's possible you flip tails for the rest of your life and never get heads" argument really isn't that meaningful; especially when we are talking about odds as large as 5%.

[Bishav]

Standard dev reply: lol you're just unlucky. 

 

[IDKPRO]

On 31/08/2017 at 0:57 AM, Kaerodactyl said:

It is a mystery once again. It not worth hunting imo, it is faster grinding money with npc and buy everstones on gtl ^^

Of everyone just buy, everstones prices will go up and if no one go looking for everstones there will be only expensive ones on gtl

[pachima]

On 02/09/2017 at 0:23 AM, Gilan said:

Being someone whose major is based around statistics and probability, I really dislike these sort of statements that people seem to love to post online whenever probability is brought up (Desu did it in a thread a while back).

 

While this statement is theoretically true, in all practicality it is false. The math for this happening is .95^3000 =

1.48189E-67

To put this number into perspective, you have a 1/290million chance at winning America's Powerball lottery. Which, written in the same notation, is:

3.44828E-09

 

So this (1.48189E-67) is the theoretical number of the chance of this occurring. Now, we must take into account that the human race has yet to ever observe a single event that is truly random; so while we can imagine it in theory, we've never actually seen something that is random. Everything that we have and continue to observe acts according to a pattern. Computers are no exception. As a result, this imaginary scenario where you don't get a single everstone in 3000 consecutive geodudes is practically not possible.

 

Still don't believe me? Learn python or any coding language, write a short script that will simulate this process and tell it to stop once it has encountered 3000 consecutive geodudes without an everstone. It can compute more of these trials in 1 second than you can do in your lifetime. Let it run and see how long it takes to finish. Spoiler alert, I built it and have had it running for 30mins now.

 

So no, you won't go 3000 geodudes without a single everstone.

Nvm.

Also, I should do it too. Need to get back to python

 

Edited September 9, 2017 by pachima

[GodofKawaii]

i've never had any problems using pickup for everstones