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Is it possible to shiny hunt without the having the game think that you are a bot?


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28 minutes ago, peep said:

my bro was hunting for a shiny using leppas, sweet scent and donator. he didn't get a shiny for 45k encounters...

all you know that the probability for not getting a shiny in 45k encounters is  (7372/7373)^45k = 0.0022 aka as close to zero as it can get.

There are 2 options: the real rate is not 1/7373 with donator or this is bullsh1t

Read through older/other topics concerning this issue

We got confirmation, that the rate is not 1/7373 (or 1/8192 without donator status) more than a year ago

Edited by Anthrazit
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The only thing we can do to make the system believe we are not bots is dont repeat movement paterns, etc so we dont get captchas. Besides that, as players we shouldnt fear how pokemmo works (unless you are botting, then leave the game).

 

I've read too much bs in this threat, and I have to clarify that shiny chances are just RNG, that can be modified by our actions. That doesnt mean we are gonna get easily shinies for doing certain things, because after all, is pure LUCK.

 

Some ppl refered to statistics, and compared with a dice. If we roll the "shiny dice", we could be at 1.000.000 encounters and we would have the same chance to get a shiny as before, even if statistics say the opposite. We are likely to get one, yes, but the chances are the same.

 

" Easiest way" to get shinies? Hunt them, do 500 to 2k encounters every day, and eventually, you'll get one

Edited by Zigh
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33 minutes ago, Zigh said:

Some ppl refered to statistics, and compared with a dice. If we roll the "shiny dice", we could be at 1.000.000 encounters and we would have the same chance to get a shiny as before, even if statistics say the opposite. We are likely to get one, yes, but the chances are the same.

As someone who invoked statistics, I would like to make something clear, as there was a claim earlier that is not true. It was claimed that if you roll a 6 sided dice 100 times, and you didn't roll a six in the first 99 attempts then on the 100th attempt your odds of rolling a 6 is more likely than at the first attempt. This is not true. You can not apply collective odds to individual cases. This is because there is no single defining moment in collective odds that the odds of something not happening is truly zero. i.e. you can't say precisely when it will happen, but you can say it will happen somewhere in here __% of the time.

 

You can only use collective odds to make a prediction about a group of trials.

 

You can test this phenomenon by flipping coins a lot. Start with the number 100. First you bet 1 on tails, then you do a random bet again. If it were to flip tails again, you then bet 2 on heads (basically if there is ever a case where the same side was flipped twice you switch to the opposite side, which is in line with thinking that "the odds of heads showing up has increased"). What you will find if you do this a lot, is that you are no better off than if you betted randomly the entire time (I ran code for this that did millions of repetitions).

 

So, in summary, collective statistics cannot be used to predict single events, but it is quite useful in predicting the situation that I talked about in my earlier post.

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16 hours ago, NiceRice said:

Whoever said this has no clue about experimental probability. If you roll a six sided die for 6 times it is likely that you will not get number 6 within those rolls, however if you roll it 100 times, there is a good chance you will get a 6 (almost certainly). The shiny encounter rate is just like a massive die with 1/8192. Although each several roll is independent, on a bigger scale your chances of getting a shiny is increasing.

This is bullshit. The dice and the universe does not retain memory of previous rolls. This is akin to gambler's fallacy.

 

STATISTICALLY, given all things being fair, over an infinite amount of rolls, we should see an equal result of all 6 numbers showing up.

 

But we as people don't work in infinites. Finite rolls mean skewed results. Maybe your first 100 rolls will be 1. The probability of that happening is very low, but it can happen. All while the guy next to you rolls all 2 for their first 100 rolls.

 

You guys really need to just stop. RNG is RNG. It's random (don't nitpick and get into semantics about applying new seeds and blah blah blah, it's random as far as you're concerned).

 

The only thing you can be certain of is that the more pokemon you encounter, the more likely you are to see a shiny. BUT THAT'S NOT A GUARANTEE BECAUSE RNG.

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10 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

This is bullshit. The dice and the universe does not retain memory of previous rolls. This is akin to gambler's fallacy.

 

STATISTICALLY, given all things being fair, over an infinite amount of rolls, we should see an equal result of all 6 numbers showing up.

 

But we as people don't work in infinites. Finite rolls mean skewed results. Maybe your first 100 rolls will be 1. The probability of that happening is very low, but it can happen. All while the guy next to you rolls all 2 for their first 100 rolls.

 

You guys really need to just stop. RNG is RNG. It's random (don't nitpick and get into semantics about applying new seeds and blah blah blah, it's random as far as you're concerned).

 

The only thing you can be certain of is that the more pokemon you encounter, the more likely you are to see a shiny. BUT THAT'S NOT A GUARANTEE BECAUSE RNG.

He was not that wrong. As I understood, he told that "more you farm, more you have chances, but each new encounter have no better rate than the last".

 

What u say with infinite is not that true :p

The most u throw the dice, the most each result will PROPORTIONALLY get closer, but, in term of number, they'll get more and more distant.

 

When you get 51/49% after 500k coinflips, results are proportionally closer than the 55/45 % after 50 coinflips, but, in term of numbers, way more distant :p

 

Well, I'm fussy about that, cuz your finally right about shiny hunting.

Coinflip is 50%, shiny hunting is like 0,00x% so yea, it's all about RNG.

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