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NiceRice

Is it possible to shiny hunt without the having the game think that you are a bot?

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Because apparently the more the game thinks you are a bot the more your shiny encounter rate decreases, this makes it impossible to shiny hunt in one area.

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20 minutes ago, NiceRice said:

Because apparently the more the game thinks you are a bot the more your shiny encounter rate decreases, this makes it impossible to shiny hunt in one area.

This rumor is still a thing?

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Just now, notmudkip0 said:

This rumor is still a thing?

Not really a rumor when kyu confirmed it in a thread...

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7 minutes ago, notmudkip0 said:

Read through this page.

Does not explain this at all: Shiny rate hasn't been a static amount for at least a year. It's variable depending on things like 'Whether donator status is active' 'Where you got your pogeyman' 'What you've been doing' 'How new you are' 'How much we think you're cheating' etc. A lot of the RNG for drops you encounter in the game is tailored in this format to combat cheating.

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1 minute ago, NiceRice said:

Does not explain this at all: Shiny rate hasn't been a static amount for at least a year. It's variable depending on things like 'Whether donator status is active' 'Where you got your pogeyman' 'What you've been doing' 'How new you are' 'How much we think you're cheating' etc. A lot of the RNG for drops you encounter in the game is tailored in this format to combat cheating.

Quote

Shinies and you: An informative PSA

 

While there's nothing to say that hasn't already been said in some form or another, here's a few important facts that keep being distorted.

  • Aside from Donator Status, there are no significant ways in which players can boost their shiny rates.
  • New players do not have a better chance than older.
  • Most importantly RNG is RNG, there is no guarantee to get a shiny in 100,000,000,000 encounters. Each encounter is a new RNG roll, independent of any previous.
  • Statistical outliers will exist in both extremes.
  • For every new player who gets a shiny, many thousand more do not.
  • Encountering lots of things, like using Hordes, is still the most effective way to encounter a shiny.

 

And here's some data. 

Of the last 100 captured shinies:

  • The average played time is 15.76 days. (11.33 days if ignoring top 3/bottom 3 outliers)
  • The minimum played time is 1.67 hours.
  • The highest played time is 235 days.
  • 78 out of 100 were captured with a player with more than 1 day of played time.

 

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2 minutes ago, notmudkip0 said:

Each encounter is a new RNG roll, independent of any previous.

Whoever said this has no clue about experimental probability. If you roll a six sided die for 6 times it is likely that you will not get number 6 within those rolls, however if you roll it 100 times, there is a good chance you will get a 6 (almost certainly). The shiny encounter rate is just like a massive die with 1/8192. Although each several roll is independent, on a bigger scale your chances of getting a shiny is increasing.

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7 minutes ago, notmudkip0 said:
  • 78 out of 100 were captured with a player with more than 1 day of played time.

also this, i also highly doubt that every 10 players there are 2 under 24 hrs game time, there is probably less.

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3 minutes ago, NiceRice said:

Whoever said this has no clue about experimental probability. If you roll a six sided die for 6 times it is likely that you will not get number 6 within those rolls, however if you roll it 100 times, there is a good chance you will get a 6 (almost certainly). The shiny encounter rate is just like a massive die with 1/8192. Although each several roll is independent, on a bigger scale your chances of getting a shiny is increasing.

I think that you are trying to say can be easily related with this:

Gambler's Fallacy.

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1 minute ago, NiceRice said:

Whoever said this has no clue about experimental probability. Yeah, I'm sure Desu doesn't know shit about ANY of that. If you roll a six sided die for 6 times it is likely that you will not get number 6 within those rolls, however if you roll it 100 times, there is a good chance you will get a 6 (almost certainly). The shiny encounter rate is just like a massive die with 1/8192. Not even close Although each several roll is independent, on a bigger scale your chances of getting a shiny is increasing.

 

Just now, DoomedRaven said:

I think that you are trying to say can be easily related with this:

Gambler's Fallacy.

^this

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If anything the stats provided clearly shows players with less play time ARE more likely to get a shiny. As the outlier who played for 252 days is nearly the equivalent of all those 22 players before 24 hours mark combined.

 

However 100 is way too small for a sample pool of this game, the data is incomplete and limited, hours does not reflect encounters. It would be much more convincing to look at the average encounter to shiny ratio. Hour to shiny ratio tells us nothing.

 

My point stands: why make the outliers the amount of hours put in rather than the amount of encounters? 

Edited by NiceRice

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2 minutes ago, NiceRice said:

If anything the stats provided clearly shows players with less play time ARE more likely to get a shiny. As the outlier who played for 252 days is nearly the equivalent of all those 22 players before 24 hours mark combined.

Quote
  • New players do not have a better chance than older.
  • Most importantly RNG is RNG, there is no guarantee to get a shiny in 100,000,000,000 encounters. Each encounter is a new RNG roll, independent of any previous.

 

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You are using claims to justify statistics , saying new players do not have better rng does not justify stats that show otherwise. In fact its the other way around, stats disprove claims.

 

Your logic: rolling dices show there is a 1/6 chance to get 6. However because I say there is no chance of getting 6 there isn't <--- lol

Edited by NiceRice

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I'm simply stating what a developer has said, since you didn't seem to look around on that thread I linked earlier. Why not go tell @Desu how he made the game wrong? Y'know, since you fucking know everything about this game.

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People seem to misunderstand the whole game thinks you're a bot shit. it's not like, you do things over and over, so you start getting lower and lower encounter. it's like, game thinks you bot, you are under a short investigation, then you get caught botting or don't and then that's that. there's no long-term "curse" if they suspect you're botting. 

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I would just like to address that this:

 

55 minutes ago, notmudkip0 said:

there is no guarantee to get a shiny in 100,000,000,000 encounters

 

is statistically not true. Even if the rate were one in three hundred thousand (note that Kyu said that if you hadn't found one in 20000-30000 you were an outlier, so 1/300000 really isn't the odds), the collective probability of not finding at least one shiny is so close to zero, that it is zero. Even if a population of 100,000,000,000 did 100,000,000,000 encounters each, the probability that not a single one of them found a single shiny is, in all practicality, zero.

 

(I quoted this from mudkip's post, but it's Desu's quote).

 

Now, I can say from personal experience that the game itself has built in features to combat macro programs. So if you are a human inputting commands from your keyboard, you should have nothing to worry about in terms of the game altering your shiny rate. But if you use a program to input commands for you, say hello to a 0% shiny rate while doing so.

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6 hours ago, NiceRice said:

Not really a rumor when kyu confirmed it in a thread...

What Kyu confirmed is :

 

"Shiny Hunting is the best way to get shinies".

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That's so wrong, got all my shinies while hunting, also got one while eving which is prob considered like botting

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27 minutes ago, Aerun said:

That's so wrong, got all my shinies while hunting, also got one while eving which is prob considered like botting

I think a bot dont act like you do when farming.

Anti-bot probably dont just proceed like "did he encountered lot of pokemons ?" or every ev trainers and shiny hunters would have no shinies, but they are the ones who got the most.

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my bro was hunting for a shiny using leppas, sweet scent and donator. he didn't get a shiny for 45k encounters...

all you know that the probability for not getting a shiny in 45k encounters is  (7372/7373)^45k = 0.0022 aka as close to zero as it can get.

There are 2 options: the real rate is not 1/7373 with donator or this is bullsh1t

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3 minutes ago, peep said:

my bro was hunting for a shiny using leppas, sweet scent and donator. he didn't get a shiny for 45k encounters...

all you know that the probability for not getting a shiny in 45k encounters is  (7372/7373)^45k = 0.0022 aka as close to zero as it can get.

There are 2 options: the real rate is not 1/7373 with donator or this is bullsh1t

Man no one knows what's the shiny rate, if there is one ofc

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