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Anthrazit

Shiny Rate of PokeMMO

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So, I recently came back to this game and made a new account and plan on sticking around for a while but seeing this shiny stuff.. would it be better for me to go back and stick with my old account since it was made back in 2013? Am I more likely to encounter a shiny that way?

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8 hours ago, Tendril said:

So, I recently came back to this game and made a new account and plan on sticking around for a while but seeing this shiny stuff.. would it be better for me to go back and stick with my old account since it was made back in 2013? Am I more likely to encounter a shiny that way?

I heard that listen to rumors decrease your shiny rate

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5 minutes ago, LifeStyle said:

and speaking bad english increases it

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just a prank bro

  Hide contents

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

 

You must be a god at english speaking :o

 

Are killed shinies counted in the rate ?

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1 minute ago, Raederz said:

You must be a god at english speaking :o

 

Are killed shinies counted in the rate ?

Gotta kill em all

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7 hours ago, Raederz said:

I heard that listen to rumors decrease your shiny rate

So ignore it since they are just rumors? Mmmmkay. When I go shiny hunting, if I don't find one after months of mindless effort I'm holding you responsible.

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10 hours ago, Tendril said:

So ignore it since they are just rumors? Mmmmkay. When I go shiny hunting, if I don't find one after months of mindless effort I'm holding you responsible.

Idk how Raederz is gonna sleep after reading this

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1 hour ago, LifeStyle said:

Idk how Raederz is gonna sleep after reading this

Yea.. if I was held responsible for someone not finding a shiny pokemon I'd probably develop a drinking problem.

 

Well I mean, if I didn't already have one.

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600 hrs 2 donators month hunting like a.... 

but any shiny ot yey pls kyu put shinys in my game uwu love me a little, jonulo and other user that found shinys, are tired. 

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3 hours ago, Quilachy said:

600 hrs 2 donators month hunting like a.... 

but any shiny ot yey pls kyu put shinys in my game uwu love me a little, jonulo and other user that found shinys, are tired. 

Only 600 hours?

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12 hours ago, Summrs said:

Only 600 hours?

yes but 600 hrs and 2 donators status 30 days 2 month and farming day by day. i hope my shiny soon

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I found 2 shinies 1,7k hours played so far. Grind a  lot as well but for catching pokes for breeding as opposed for shinies whereas breeding took a lot of time.

 

Now.. what dino said in last post is pretty misleading and does not give much insight into the shiny catch rate, tho it kind of gives average HIGHER bounds for catching a shiny.

 

Shinies and you: An informative PSA

 

While there's nothing to say that hasn't already been said in some form or another, here's a few important facts that keep being distorted.

  • Aside from Donator Status, there are no significant ways in which players can boost their shiny rates.
  • New players do not have a better chance than older.
  • Most importantly RNG is RNG, there is no guarantee to get a shiny in 100,000,000,000 encounters. Each encounter is a new RNG roll, independent of any previous.
  • Statistical outliers will exist in both extremes.
  • For every new player who gets a shiny, many thousand more do not.
  • Encountering lots of things, like using Hordes, is still the most effective way to encounter a shiny.

 

And here's some data. 

Of the last 100 captured shinies:

  • The average played time is 15.76 days. (11.33 days if ignoring top 3/bottom 3 outliers)
  • The minimum played time is 1.67 hours.
  • The highest played time is 235 days.
  • 78 out of 100 were captured with a player with more than 1 day of played time.

 

 

Assumption: 1 minute = 1 encounter (note: at some times u grind npcs or just chat so u don't catch pokez during entire game played time, but when you actually grind, u do battles faster than 1 battle per minute or grind, should take around from 20-30 secs).

 

11.33 days (take out extremeties assuming "bell" curve), meaning if I recall correctly 95% chance for catching poke. 11.33days x 24h/day x 60 mins/h = 16,315 mins or 16,315 chance.

 

Now THIS chance is actually of ppl who SUCCEEDED in catching a shiny and not a chance of total ppl who attempted for a shiny (grind and succeeded within last 100 attempts that data was given for and grind and failed during this time period). Therefore, 1/16,000 chance is the best chance (or the highest chance) in case ALL within 11.33 day period would get a shiny poke, which is NOT true.

 

Now that u know the expected HIGHEST catch rate, if I were to further assume some things could give an educated GUESS about the average or expected actual catch rate.

 

As of today, 4 shiny pokez were placed on mart. Therefore let's assume that  1/2 of the ppl put pokez on mart (mainly noobs for $ which is favoring shiny catch rate assumption since we all know that there are more noobs than season ppl so probably ratio sould be 1:4 or even 1:5, where 4 and 5 is actual placed pokez on mart by noob-season expected tendency and the other one is kept). Therefore, 8 shiny pokez are cought a day. 

 

Therefore assumption: average 8 shiniez are cought a day.

Assumption 2: around 100 ppl are playing at 1 time throughout entire day. Of couse it highly depends on day time, what day and etc. and they play after work.

Poke grind rate stays as before: 1 encounter per 1 min with reason explained before.

 

Therefore,  1 day/(8 shinies x all ppl) x 24 h/day x 60 mins/h x 1 encounter/1min x 100 ppl = 18,000 encounters per 1 shiny or chance 1/18k

now if we assume 4 are sold and 2 are kept (which might be closer to actual shiny encounter/retention rate), then  chance scales to 18,000x8/6 = 24,000 encounters per 1 shiny.

 

Now, Kyu in 2015 post said that it's UNUSUAL for not getting a shiny after 40,000 encounters. Therefore there is your upper bound.

 

From these posts from GMs you can deduce this: shiny catch rate is between  1/16,315  and 1/40,000, but DEFINITELY should not be HIGHER than 1/16k. If I were to give an educated guess I would  guess shiny rate being around 1/24,000.

 

From my shiny encounter rate 2 in 1,700h, whereas I believe I cough my 2nd shiny at around 1,500h , I should also note that I strongly bred which takes days (much more than average player did), therefore I did not spend so much time  hunting for shinies (in fact I was not even focused on hunting for shinies) I would rate my actual grind time to spent in-game time 1:2, meaning encounter rate for me would be around 1,5 min per encounter, therefore my shiny encounter was around  1500h x 60min/h x 1 encounter/1,5 min = 60,000 encounters per 1500h played that got me 2 shinies, or  1/30,000 shiny encounter, if that would give you  a feeling on the actual shiny catch rate.

 

Best Regards, Me :D

Edited by elfZ

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To me it's average 1/38 000 on 6 shinies (not counting the encounters after the 6th)

 

May be between 34 000 - 42 000 because I dont have exact count on 2 of the shinies.

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On 16.10.2016 at 1:17 PM, Termi said:

more then u can imagin bcoz it was the only one with whirlwind...I didnt even knew it could learn it...xd

 

Sorry to hear that it got away, but happy to hear that shinies finally cross your path more often :)

- added a shiny of flavawhat

Also, I encountered a Hoppip

Kcm9jkN.png

eTUGUBw.png

 

It's the first I encountered after starting this thread, so I am also happy to see that I may still find shinies and my rate is not zero :)

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4 hours ago, Bearminator said:

Great shiny Anthrazit, now you need to get green hat :D

A green Propellor Cap would be nice ^^

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On 17.9.2016 at 11:36 AM, Mitoman said:

Hi, got my first shiny after 200 hours of hunting (around 120-130k encounters). 

U7YRARd.png

thats some sick stamina. congratz, well deserved :)

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