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Shiny Rate of PokeMMO


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2 hours ago, NiklasBaum said:

So what is the rate of Shiny when I have a donator status 1/30000 or higher????

Thanks for pointing out that it was still missing in the original post. I added it together with a source. Good luck hunting :)

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I can't believe I seemed to avoid this thread for this long. Now I know why the Global chat says the shiny rate for hordes is 1/6000. But anyways.

 

For hordes, the shiny encounter rate is not 1/6000 for hordes of 5. The math to odds doesn't work that way. To calculate the odds to get a shiny in a horde you will treat it as 5 individual single encounters, rather than adding numbers to the numerator in the fraction.

 

To get the actual number for hordes, you need to calculate first what is the chance of not getting a shiny per a single encounter. That is 29999/30000. And to calculate what is your chance of not getting a shiny from a certain number of occasions for this, you will multiply it by itself with the number of encounters in question. Therefor the chance of not finding a shiny in the horde is 29999/30000^5 being and then you flip that around to get the chance for getting a shiny in a horde. This is not the same as stating the shiny chance is 1/6000.

 

And to furthermore to prove why you cannot add the number in the numerator for the shiny chance is that for the sake or argument, let's assume there would be a horde of 30000 Pokemon. If we would add the number in the numerator, the shiny chance for this particular horde being 30000/30000 - being 1/1 or 100%. But we all know that if you find 30000 Pokemon, you're not guaranteed to get a shiny. So the correct calculation in this hypothetical horde of 30000 Pokemon would be 29999/30000^30000 meaning 36,78% chance of not getting a shiny if you would encounter a horde of 30000 Pokemon. This is why you need to treat the calculation in question as certain number of "single encounters", whether it's in hordes or not.

Edited by OrangeManiac
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4 hours ago, OrangeManiac said:

[...] For hordes, the shiny encounter rate is not 1/6000 for hordes of 5. [...]

Everything you wrote was accounted for in the past.
That is why the wording chosen in this thread is, that pokemon in hordes "have their own/independent chance to be shiny"
Desu also stated that the chance for a shiny in a horde is "simplified down to an approximate 5/30k"
There was no claim - like you seemed to believe - that the chance of a horde was exactly 1/6k.

The reason behind the approximation is something you simply missed at the end of your calculation:
Please compare the actual odds for finding at least one shiny in a horde (of five) to the approximated odds of 5/30k. You will then realize - like I did as well - that the difference between them is small enough to neglect it for the sake of a (simplified) rate which is more intuitive to many players.
Because, although some of us might be very proud that we understood the little math behind it - which I hope was the main intention/trigger for the post ;D - it is not helpful to load it onto players that might simply not be interested in it.

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20 minutes ago, gbwead said:

1 - ((29999/30000)^5) = 0,00016666

1/6000 = 0,00016667

How do you get 0,0003 by flipping (29999/30000)^5?

Yeah I just noticed a pretty ridiculous mistake I made, I forgot to put 5 in the exponent when I calculated the shiny horde chance instead of the single encounter. That and forgetting to put "1 - " before those instances. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

Yeah, in that small of a fraction the change is barely visible. It just killed my OCD to see that a shiny rate for horde was simply stated for 5/30000 when single encounter is 1/30000. Even saying it's "about 1/6000" would have get me less triggered. But yeah, practically the difference isn't all that much when I actually learned to not forget crucial steps when calculating this stuff.

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12 minutes ago, OrangeManiac said:

Yeah, in that small of a fraction the change is barely visible. It just killed my OCD to see that a shiny rate for horde was simply stated for 5/30000 when single encounter is 1/30000. Even saying it's "about 1/6000" would have get me less triggered. But yeah, practically the difference isn't all that much when I actually learned to not forget crucial steps when calculating this stuff.

What did trigger it though? :D  Some of the posts in the page before?
I see that I add something in the first post in addition to the statement of Desu that I also linked earlier. And in Global or here we can always add "close to/approx./nearly/..." in front of 1/6k to make it slightly more accurate if an addressee might benefit from that

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23 minutes ago, OrangeManiac said:

Yeah I just noticed a pretty ridiculous mistake I made, I forgot to put 5 in the exponent when I calculated the shiny horde chance instead of the single encounter. That and forgetting to put "1 - " before those instances. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

Yeah, in that small of a fraction the change is barely visible. It just killed my OCD to see that a shiny rate for horde was simply stated for 5/30000 when single encounter is 1/30000. Even saying it's "about 1/6000" would have get me less triggered. But yeah, practically the difference isn't all that much when I actually learned to not forget crucial steps when calculating this stuff.

maxresdefault.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Anthrazit said:

What did trigger it though? :D  Some of the posts in the page before?
I see that I add something in the first post in addition to the statement of Desu that I also linked earlier. And in Global or here we can always add "close to/approx./nearly/..." in front of 1/6k to make it slightly more accurate if an addressee might benefit from that

I was reading the last pages and simply the parallel between "1/30000 for single encounters, 5/30000 for hordes" triggered me. Seriously, thanks for pointing me how close it technically is to the truth in this instance which makes "about 1/6000" an accurate statement. Which I'll admit, I should have done this calculation myself.  Anyways, the first thing that I thought was like "what, you can't just add those encounters to the numerator" because the first thing I imagined was this incident of a mega horde and you couldn't say that with 15000 encounters the chance is 15000/30000 when it's obviously not. With 5/30000, we might have got to the right number but with a wrong way but that's thanks to the minuscule size of the numbers in this instance.

 

Anyways, I'm happy to concede that I made a mistake when I said that "no, the shiny rate isn't 1/6000 for hordes" because that statement is accurate enough, although "5/30000" isn't the way you should have got there.

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17 minutes ago, OrangeManiac said:

I was reading the last pages and simply the parallel between "1/30000 for single encounters, 5/30000 for hordes" triggered me. Seriously, thanks for pointing me how close it technically is to the truth in this instance which makes "about 1/6000" an accurate statement. Which I'll admit, I should have done this calculation myself.  Anyways, the first thing that I thought was like "what, you can't just add those encounters to the numerator" because the first thing I imagined was this incident of a mega horde and you couldn't say that with 15000 encounters the chance is 15000/30000 when it's obviously not. With 5/30000, we might have got to the right number but with a wrong way but that's thanks to the minuscule size of the numbers in this instance.

 

Anyways, I'm happy to concede that I made a mistake when I said that "no, the shiny rate isn't 1/6000 for hordes" because that statement is accurate enough, although "5/30000" isn't the way you should have got there.

Don't worry, I went through this with them back then

fBdZxJR.png

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  • 6 months later...

Esto es variando las circunstancias en las que no puede salir brillante asi porque tiene su tiempo estimado por lo que ahora a Zeptor Barrozous le salio shiny nidoran hembra 3x31 en el safari con 32 horas y solo estaba completando poco a poco la pokedex mientras iba ciudad a ciudad se imaginan que pongan shinys por ciertos encuentros xd o mejor dicho aparición seria inútil pero algo que si diría que deben bajar ciertas costumbres 

Edited by Elnegociante
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