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[Unofficial] Shiny Existence Thread [5th Life]


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Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence:

 

"Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO

The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient."

 

Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters

315119256_ScreenShot2020-06-08at13_30_06.png.766a50219d5cddbacba9d0a4b43e7fa5.png

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1 hour ago, bastianh7 said:

Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence:

 

"Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO

The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient."

 

Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters

315119256_ScreenShot2020-06-08at13_30_06.png.766a50219d5cddbacba9d0a4b43e7fa5.png

To add what Orange said, just because the rate is ~1/31k, it doesn’t mean that you will be guaranteed a shiny in 31k encounters. Every single encounter is a separate roll of a 31k sided die

Edited by Zymogen
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1 hour ago, bastianh7 said:

Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence:

 

"Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO

The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient."

 

Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters

315119256_ScreenShot2020-06-08at13_30_06.png.766a50219d5cddbacba9d0a4b43e7fa5.png

Once you get to that 30,000~ encounter, the pokemon will be shiny. 

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1 hour ago, bastianh7 said:

Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence:

 

"Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO

The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient."

 

Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters

315119256_ScreenShot2020-06-08at13_30_06.png.766a50219d5cddbacba9d0a4b43e7fa5.png

Hello there. Remember to read the figure text: 

"In summary, this shows the odds of finding a shiny (in percentage) based on the amount of encounters you have (based on a binomial distribution (X = 1-(1-(shiny_rate_in_numbers))(amount_of_encounters))).For instance, you will have a 67.08% (with donator) or 63.21% (without donator) to encounter/hatch a shiny within 30000 encounters based on this estimation. In addition, a binomial distribution estimates that 50% of the player base should find their shiny by 20979 encounters (in a population sample with 1/30000 shiny rate) or 18712 encounters (in a population sample with 1/27000 shiny rate).
Another interesting read into the table shows that even at 300,000 encounters, there is no guarantee that you meet a shiny (99.995% that you should have met a shiny by 300,000 encounters with a 1/30000 rate) - but that is in the extreme coincidences."

 

This figure is based on the probability of finding a shiny based on population with X amount of players. There is no way to know when you will encounter a shiny. The binomial distribution just shows there could be lucky players that finds a shiny within <100 encounters while others are that unlucky to be at 300.000 encounters without a shiny. That's how probability works. There is no guarantee to encounter a shiny as the chances of a shiny will always be 1/30.000 no matter how many encounters you have.

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3 minutes ago, Sethsen said:

Hello there. Remember to read the figure text: 

"In summary, this shows the odds of finding a shiny (in percentage) based on the amount of encounters you have (based on a binomial distribution (X = 1-(1-(shiny_rate_in_numbers))(amount_of_encounters))).For instance, you will have a 67.08% (with donator) or 63.21% (without donator) to encounter/hatch a shiny within 30000 encounters based on this estimation. In addition, a binomial distribution estimates that 50% of the player base should find their shiny by 20979 encounters (in a population sample with 1/30000 shiny rate) or 18712 encounters (in a population sample with 1/27000 shiny rate).
Another interesting read into the table shows that even at 300,000 encounters, there is no guarantee that you meet a shiny (99.995% that you should have met a shiny by 300,000 encounters with a 1/30000 rate) - but that is in the extreme coincidences."

 

This figure is based on the probability of finding a shiny based on population with X amount of players. There is no way to know when you will encounter a shiny. The binomial distribution just shows there could be lucky players that finds a shiny within <100 encounters while others are that unlucky to be at 300.000 encounters without a shiny. That's how probability works. There is no guarantee to encounter a shiny as the chances of a shiny will always be 1/30.000 no matter how many encounters you have.

Thank you 

Edited by bastianh7
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1 hour ago, bastianh7 said:

Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence:

 

"Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO

The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient."

 

Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters

315119256_ScreenShot2020-06-08at13_30_06.png.766a50219d5cddbacba9d0a4b43e7fa5.png

I have allowed myself to correct your table with shiny rate/ shiny percentage/ encounters

 

 

graf.png

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45 minutes ago, SercaK said:

 

I thought that each horde was counted like 1 encounter, tnx for explanation <3

since it's independent rolls on each pokemon, you can even find 'technically' 5 shinies in a single 5 man horde. Chances are you'll never see that happen, but there's instances of people finding 2 in one horde, meaning they have to kill one to catch another.

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