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Worried. (Shiny encounter rate)


noobihol

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So after circa 40.000 encounters, I am getting a little worried that the encounter rate for shinies aren't 1/8192 at all. I honestly hope that it's my luck and the game moderators aren't hiding something from us. I bought donator status aswell which should technically increase the chances from 1/8192 to 1/7373.

 

40000 / 8192 = 4.88281 shinies found according to the possibillities. I might just be a "little" unlucky.

 

 

Can we get a confirmation that the shiny rate is indeed 1/8192 by a game developer?

Edited by noobihol
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So after circa 40.000 encounters, I am getting a little worried that the encounter rate for shinies aren't 1/8192 at all. I honestly hope that it's my luck and the game moderators aren't hiding something from us. I bought donator status aswell which should technically increase the chances from 1/8192 to 1/7373.

 

40000 / 8192 = 4.88281 shinies found according to the possibillities. I might just be a "little" unlucky.

 

 

Can we get a confirmation that the shiny rate is indeed 1/8192 by a game developer?

1/32,000

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So after circa 40.000 encounters, I am getting a little worried that the encounter rate for shinies aren't 1/8192 at all. I honestly hope that it's my luck and the game moderators aren't hiding something from us. I bought donator status aswell which should technically increase the chances from 1/8192 to 1/7373.

 

40000 / 8192 = 4.88281 shinies found according to the possibillities. I might just be a "little" unlucky.

 

 

Can we get a confirmation that the shiny rate is indeed 1/8192 by a game developer?

If only it worked like that :(. Going through 8,192 encounters, or even 100,000 encounters, most certainly doesn't guarantee you a shiny- it just means that you're over odds. The greater the number of encounters, the more probable it is that a shiny will eventually appear; however, this does not manipulate the odds in any way, as the real possibility (whatever it may be) is set in stone for each wild battle.

 

[spoiler]Just make a forum post about wanting to find your first shiny, it worked for me back in September of last year :P[/spoiler]

Edited by Kiliminati
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No need to worry some people haven't caught a Shiny OT and they're at 5k game play hours. It all comes down to your luck really, I know some members (Kili) that were lucky enough to find 2 under 1k hours of gameplay.

actually, everyone i know of who has hit 5k hours has found one or more. i found one recently and so did noad. kamaric had ot's long before he hit 5k and archi, quakkz, and most if not all of the other i know of who hit that mark has gotten one.

 

 

1/32,000

that was a very long time ago. as the rumor said it was gradually increased to that, if true the current rate is probably worse then 1/32,648.

 

unless ofc it's just a rumor. 

 

EDIT:

how would staff even prove otherwise anyways? since they are the only people who have access to the information, and ofc it's in their best interest to lie if the rumor is true and tell the truth if the rumor is false. either way they give same answer.

it's like asking if someone is a serial killer. everyone will say no to stay off the firing squads to do list.

Edited by fredrichnietze
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There is a calculation that shows the chance that you SHOULD'VE encountered a shiny in 40.000 encounters but Idont remember how it went. Maybe Panda can help

I gotchu Thinkie

 

Let's assume that we would like to know the probability of finding at least one shiny by the time we have reached exactly 40,000 encounters. In order to find this probability, we can use n (wild encounters) = 40,000, k (number of successes) = 1, and p (probability of success per each encounter)  .000122, or the fraction 1/8192. When we put these values into the equation P(k < 0) = (n k) factorial (p^k) (1-p)^n-k (or use the binomial test), we come up with .00757342, which subtracted from 1 equals about 99.24%. So it is extremely probable that we will have found a shiny by 40,000 encounters (if the rate is as advertised), but as stated above, you could always just get really, really unlucky :P.

 

[spoiler]Yes, I did it cause I'm a statistics nerd[spoiler]thanks Panda for your correction[/spoiler][/spoiler]

Edited by Kiliminati
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Yep but I think I know too many people that have over 40k encounters to say the probability of finding a shiny is 1/8192

Using a probability of 1/32000 instead of 1/8192 yields about a 71.35% chance of having found at least one shiny at 40,000 encounters, which seems much more probable considering how many people have yet to find one even at that grotesque number.

 

[spoiler]Either that, or they're a bunch of unlucky uguus[/spoiler]

Edited by Kiliminati
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We all know how much they love to keep us grinding, does any of you really think they wouldn't touch the shiny encounter rate?

100% positive it's been changed, but it's not as a smart move as they might think, since this increases the value of each shiny.

So ye, when a fresh noob finds (and catches) a shiny vulpix it's even more unfair than it would be with a regular encounter rate

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We all know how much they love to keep us grinding, does any of you really think they wouldn't touch the shiny encounter rate?

100% positive it's been changed, but it's not as a smart move as they might think, since this increases the value of each shiny.

So ye, when a fresh noob finds (and catches) a shiny vulpix it's even more unfair than it would be with a regular encounter rate

yes, but on the other hand, if they had left the rate at 1/8192 the market would likely be flooded with shinies. It's obvious the rate isn't 1/8192, but I don't really have a problem with the rate being far smaller - I just wish they'd be open and honest about this shit

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yes, but on the other hand, if they had left the rate at 1/8192 the market would likely be flooded with shinies. It's obvious the rate isn't 1/8192, but I don't really have a problem with the rate being far smaller - I just wish they'd be open and honest about this shit

 

Maybe it's better this way, it they confirmed that shinies might increase in value

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2 Accounts ( 3k each ) 

2 Different IDs

0 OT

Still If I understand, even if you encounter 8191wild pokemons, it doesn't mean that on your 8192 encounter you will find a shiny, I think on your 8192 encounter, the odd is still 1/8192, which means it doesn't matter how many encounter you had, ( You can find it on your 3rd or 100th, or 1000th. etc. )

Maybe I'm wrong.

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There is a calculation that shows the chance that you SHOULD'VE encountered a shiny in 40.000 encounters but Idont remember how it went. Maybe Panda can help

 

I gotchu Thinkie

 

Let's assume that we would like to know the probability of finding at least one shiny by the time we have reached exactly 40,000 encounters. In order to find this probability, we can use n (wild encounters) = 40,000, k (number of successes) = 1, and p (probability of success per each encounter)  .000122, or the fraction 1/8192. When we put these values into the equation P(X = k) = (n k) factorial (p^k) (1-p)^n-k (or use the binomial test), we come up with .0445575, which subtracted from 1 equals about 95.54%. So it is highly probable that we will have found a shiny by 40,000 encounters, but as stated above, you could always just get really unlucky :P.

 

[spoiler]Yes, I did it cause I'm a statistics nerd[/spoiler]

I'm sorry to break this to you, but it seems (according to numbers given to me by matlab) that you have made a mistake. The number .0445575 is what I get by calculating P(k<2), because

P(k<2) = P(k=0) + P(k=1) = .0075743 + .0369796 = .0445539

The last two decimals do not match with your number, but I don't know what method you used to calculate that number (did you use the decimal approximation of p?) Of course P(k=n) might be a typo from your side, maybe you meant P(k<=n) instead. However the error arises when you calculate 1 - P(k<2), which is equal to P(k>1). This number is the probability of finding at least TWO shinies, so the number you found, 95.54%, is the probability of finding at least two shinies. The probability of finding at least one shiny is simply

P(k>0) = 1 - P(k=0) = .9924256

or 99,24% if you wish.

 

 

People who are saying that they have 3k playing time without finding a shiny are not really giving any useful information, because we have no idea what they spent that time on (likely not shiny hunting.) However, looking at information from other people, like PBC, gives us some evidence that the actual shiny encounter rate is not at all 1/8192.

 

Btw, I'm curious - who came up with the number 1/32000 in the first place?

Edited by PandaJJ
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I'm sorry to break this to you, but it seems (according to numbers given to me by matlab) that you have made a mistake. The number .0445575 is what I get by calculating P(k<2), because

P(k<2) = P(k=0) + P(k=1) = .0075743 + .0369796 = .0445539

The last two decimals do not match with your number, but I don't know what method you used to calculate that number (did you use the decimal approximation of p?) Of course P(k=n) might be a typo from your side, maybe you meant P(k<=n) instead. However the error arises when you calculate 1 - P(k<2), which is equal to P(k>1). This number is the probability of finding at least TWO shinies, so the number you found, 95.54%, is the probability of finding at least two shinies. The probability of finding at least one shiny is simply

P(k>0) = 1 - P(k=0) = .9924256

or 99,24% if you wish.

 

 

People who are saying that they have 3k playing time without finding a shiny are not really giving any useful information, because we have no idea what they spent that time on (likely not shiny hunting.) However, looking at information from other people, like PBC, gives us some evidence that the actual shiny encounter rate is not at all 1/8192.

 

Btw, I'm curious - who came up with the number 1/32000 in the first place?

Leaked by ex staff once apon a time if I remember.  Was before I was active on the forums.

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I think Plizard an old GM (rip) leaked the information once, but I'm not sure if GMs even have access to that kind of information. But like Gunthug said, I don't mind the rates being higher. I just mind that we are being lied to and that the developers and staff keep denying it and replying with a sarcastic 'ooooo conspiracyuuuyyy!'

 

Not only that but they are literally SCAMMING people that buy donator status for shiny hunting (a lot of people) by saying the rates are 1/7373

 

edit: inb4 banned for calling devs scammerz

Edited by ThinkNice
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