Of the Safari Zone (Or, curse you Chansey!): A strategy guide

[hallo]

Kangaskhan- Go right from entrance

FINALLY

[fredfredz]

Hi Cubes (or anyone who can answer my question)

 

i'm trying to do the odd myself and i got a question about this formula :

 

Y = 1048560 / (sqrt(sqrt(16711680/X)))

 

I got your 4,7% if i dont round down the sqrt while getting 4,9% if i do. So, do i need to round down like the rest of the previous formula or not?

 

Also, using your 4,7%, i arrive at the conclusion that, on average, u use 2,22 balls with balls only method which give 10,44% of capturing a chansey (1 on 9,58 encounters). So, i dont get your numbers even though i agree that using bait is the best method.

It takes on average 13 Chansey encounters to catch one with this strategy, 14.5 Chansey encounters to catch one with just balls.

Using that 1/14,5, you are saying that you have 6,9% of catching a chansey using balls only. That seems impossible because if i simply change, for example, that

chansey have 100% escape chance after the second ball, which lower the actual capture chance, the odd of capture would be :  4,7 + (0,55 * 4,7) = 7,285%  which is higher than your number.

 

Anyway, i really want to know if i need to round down the sqrt to do the odd of all popular methods myself  ^_^

[PayneTrain]

This helped me catch 2/5 of my first Chanseys, and get my first lucky egg! Thank you so very much!

[MelBoy]

Well, I read this and said, "Let me try to throw some bait then 3 poke balls. I threw the bait, and immediately the chansey fled. I then proceeded to throw my GameBoy out the window.

[PsrY]

hi guys

some stats (something like 20h of farming cumulated)

 

pokemon seen : 3888 (i work around 48 poke per run - I did an average on a sample of 10 runs)
chansey seen : 152
chansey caught : 18

1 egg

 1 shiny rhyhorn : he "fled from battle" at the first bait ! KDLPDOZFEKLMFLMKZPO (keyboard stomp)

 

so... my chansey encounter rate is actualy (152x100)/3888 : ~~3.9%

i use the cleanse tag on a lvl 26 pokemon... seems like it doenst work ! i see less low lvls, im sure, but chansey rate isnt afected in my tests... need moar stats guys !

 

stats seems low to make a descent catch rate, but actualy its 11,8% (18x100)/152

strategy ? bait-ball-ball.... etc.... until she watch carefuly ---> bait again .....

 

sorry for my bad english :-)

[PsrY]

i forgot, 20h is an estimate.

when im fast, its about 9-10 mins per run.

 

lets take 10 mins : (81 runs x 10 mins )/ 60= ~~13h30min of pure farm

[Avurii]

I Have the worst luck conceivable. On the first 10 chanseys(Poke-grammar LOL) that i found i threw a bait and they ALL immediately ran away. Ironically when i did eventually caught a chansey it was after a thew a rock with only one pokeball left.

 

 

 

P.S. for future readers of this comment to save steps you can tap the D-pad without moving any actual spaces and that attracts wild Pokemon without using any steps, or use a level 26 (first in party) gloom/anything with sweet scent when a repel is up to save steps as making mistakes by pressing to hard on the D-pad is fairly common.

 

 

 

Thanks for the guide even though my luck kinda screwed me over anyways

 

[Dannnno]

P.S. for future readers of this comment to save steps you can tap the D-pad without moving any actual spaces and that attracts wild Pokemon without using any steps, or use a level 26 (first in party) gloom/anything with sweet scent when a repel is up to save steps as making mistakes by pressing to hard on the D-pad is fairly common.

 

not in pokemmo it doesn't

[tygrys1]

I found a Chansey in my 2nd battle and caught it in the fist bait and poke ball, lol.

 

Nice post, too :o.

[Mornedil]

[spoiler]hi guys

some stats (something like 20h of farming cumulated)

 

pokemon seen : 3888 (i work around 48 poke per run - I did an average on a sample of 10 runs)
chansey seen : 152
chansey caught : 18

1 egg

 1 shiny rhyhorn : he "fled from battle" at the first bait ! KDLPDOZFEKLMFLMKZPO (keyboard stomp)

 

so... my chansey encounter rate is actualy (152x100)/3888 : ~~3.9%

i use the cleanse tag on a lvl 26 pokemon... seems like it doenst work ! i see less low lvls, im sure, but chansey rate isnt afected in my tests... need moar stats guys !

 

stats seems low to make a descent catch rate, but actualy its 11,8% (18x100)/152

strategy ? bait-ball-ball.... etc.... until she watch carefuly ---> bait again .....

 

sorry for my bad english :-)[/spoiler]

 

There is a simulator to check the methods without spending hours in-game:

 

[mackie8]

Thanks, I love pokemon math! But I took 40 minutes finding a Tauros, threw a bait... and he fled :( still, rock on!

[Nicolebear]

Each time you cast your fishing line counts as a step. Youll still run out of balls first, but if youre only after Dratini, dont waste several hundred steps before you start.

[krm27]

The original math does not work IMHO.

 

I do not see where it factors in the fact that the Chansey will usually RUN AWAY FROM BAIT!

 

So if you lead with a bait, you will usually get NO chance to throw a ball, have to wait about 25 encounters to see another Chancey.  Let's say Chancey eats the bait 1 out of 3 times, now you are going to need 75 pokemon encounters for 3 Chancey encounters to even get to throwing out a ball.  Note, I don't know what the odds are of Chancey fleeing after you throw bait with your initial move, but I've been doing this a few hours now throwing balls, rocks, and then shifting to bait after reading this thread, and Chancey has fled after I threw bait every time so far.  

 

Anyway, if you lead with a ball, you at least guarantee one ball, no matter what happens.  Even if that ball has half the odds of catching Chancey as a ball after throwing bait, it would STILL be better to lead with the ball.  However, we actually know the ball alone has twice the catch rate as the ball after bait.

 

Without doing the math, I cannot see how the "flee from the first bait thrown" issue, if factored into the equation, will not lead to the conclusion that all-ball is the better way to go.  Unless you are going to tell me that Chancey only flees from the ball, like, 1/4th of the time or something really low like that, in which case I have to say, WTF is wrong with my game that he keeps fleeing the damn bait!!

 

~krm27 

[KAR0TTENP0WER]

does compound eyes work now in safari zone?

 

btw: does ability "frisk" exist in here? dont find any shuppets or stantlers with frisk

 

edit: no...exists since gen 4

Edited March 28, 2015 by KAR0TTENP0WER

[Mornedil]

The original math does not work IMHO.

 

I do not see where it factors in the fact that the Chansey will usually RUN AWAY FROM BAIT!

 

So if you lead with a bait, you will usually get NO chance to throw a ball, have to wait about 25 encounters to see another Chancey.  Let's say Chancey eats the bait 1 out of 3 times, now you are going to need 75 pokemon encounters for 3 Chancey encounters to even get to throwing out a ball.  Note, I don't know what the odds are of Chancey fleeing after you throw bait with your initial move, but I've been doing this a few hours now throwing balls, rocks, and then shifting to bait after reading this thread, and Chancey has fled after I threw bait every time so far.  

 

Anyway, if you lead with a ball, you at least guarantee one ball, no matter what happens.  Even if that ball has half the odds of catching Chancey as a ball after throwing bait, it would STILL be better to lead with the ball.  However, we actually know the ball alone has twice the catch rate as the ball after bait.

 

Without doing the math, I cannot see how the "flee from the first bait thrown" issue, if factored into the equation, will not lead to the conclusion that all-ball is the better way to go.  Unless you are going to tell me that Chancey only flees from the ball, like, 1/4th of the time or something really low like that, in which case I have to say, WTF is wrong with my game that he keeps fleeing the damn bait!!

 

~krm27 

 

 

I programmed a simulator which uses OPs calculated % chances a few years back, which proved that spamming balls is more efficient.

However, the OP of this topic raped my topic to a point where I had to ask a moderator to lock it, and it's now been removed.

 

Edit: Here's a simulation of 10000 pokemon encounters using OP's calculations (the simulator escapes if you don't meet chansey):

 

And here's 1000000 (one million) chancey only encounters:

 

 

As you see, bait-ball has a slightly better chance on average (only 0.2% in the 1mil simulation) to catch chansey.

But you'll spend much more time on each attempt with bait-ball, which makes ball spamming a bit more efficient (and less annoying since you always get a chance to catch it).

 

Bottom line: Use the method that feels best because they've got pretty much the same odds on average... Just never throw a rock, and never throw bait when it's already eating.

Edited March 29, 2015 by Mornedil

[shadesofchaos]

Does the repel trick work anymore in the safari zone?  It works fine elsewhere, but anytime I use a repel in the safari - even when I tried using a pokemon that was only level 5 at the front of my party - I didn't see any pokemon at all.

[LilyRox]

Does the repel trick work anymore in the safari zone?  It works fine elsewhere, but anytime I use a repel in the safari - even when I tried using a pokemon that was only level 5 at the front of my party - I didn't see any pokemon at all.

 

The repel trick doesn't work for Safari Zone anymore. This guide is out of date. I also agreed with Mornedil that Ball-ball is better in general if the OP's statistics are correct:

 

1. The Bait-ball combo uses A LOT more turns. Meaning although the Chansey has a much lower chance of fleeing it still has more chances to flee. This also means you can encounter more Chansey's per hour using Ball-ball.

 

2. Ball-ball has a 100% rate of a chance at catching a Chansey on 1st Ball vs Bait-Ball has a 0% chance (Yes, it's highly unlikely to catch on 1st try, but I've done it multiple times before).

 

3. You have a better probability of landing x2 Ball-ball combos vs x2 Bait-ball. This is a very important factor. Since Ball-ball is only a 2 turn combo at a 55% success rate of Chansey not fleeing and Bait-ball is a 7 turn combo at a 50% success rate of Chansey not fleeing, you have a MUCH higher chance of landing Ball-ball at least 2 times vs Bait-ball, which would increase your catch rate to 14.58%.

 

4. Ball-ball saves time AND balls. One of the main problems I have with Bait-ball is just how many resources it uses. It's not uncommon to get into Bait-ball battles and use over 15 Safari balls on 1 Chansey. Since you only get 30 balls this means you can only catch 1 Chansey per trip a lot of times. It also takes more than double the time of Ball-ball a lot of times for only a .97% difference.

 

5. The small 0.97% difference between Bait-ball and Ball-ball isn't noticeable. It really isn't and to be honest Ball-ball is more effective early on for RNG, just like Mornedil's simulation. To notice any difference you would have to encounter THOUSANDS of pokemon and even then with RNG there's a good chance Ball-ball could still gain you more. The early RNG of Ball-ball should net more Chansey's early on simply because there's no lost opportunity for catching Chansey's vs a 0% chance of catching a Chansey on first turn, every bait & spending more than 2x more turns. You only really start to see the difference and see Bait-ball take over statistically after thousands of encounters normally.

 

6. The "placebo" effect. The reason people like using Bait-ball isn't for the .97% "advantage", which like I said isn't anything when you aren't encountering thousands and thousands of Pokemon. It's the feeling of hope of doing some type of secret combo. Most people don't keep track of losses most of the time so even if 15 Chansey's flee'd from them and they caught one they say: "Wow! This Bait-ball combo really works!". It's no different than a gambler using the Martingale system of betting. The only difference is technically Bait-ball does have an slight advantage statistically, but it's just not efficiently and realistically better than Ball-ball for under 30k encounters or so. 

[FrostWing]

Thx for the guide!

The bait-ball trick works for me. I tried the ball-ball trick before, I agree that bait-ball is actually more effective. I caught 2-3 chanseys per hour. Before, I only caught 1-2 chansey per hour using the ball-ball method.

 

4. Ball-ball saves time AND balls. One of the main problems I have with Bait-ball is just how many resources it uses. It's not uncommon to get into Bait-ball battles and use over 15 Safari balls on 1 Chansey. Since you only get 30 balls this means you can only catch 1 Chansey per trip a lot of times. It also takes more than double the time of Ball-ball a lot of times for only a .97% difference.

I've been using the bait-ball strategy a dozen of times, never have I run out of safari balls in a trip. 30 balls are given for free, it's more wasteful to not use em, no?

 

Also, it's not a waste of time using more balls to catch them at all. You can only encounter 3 chanseys at most in a single trip. It's more time wasting to run around and encounter other wild pokes.

 

6. The "placebo" effect. The reason people like using Bait-ball isn't for the .97% "advantage", which like I said isn't anything when you aren't encountering thousands and thousands of Pokemon. It's the feeling of hope of doing some type of secret combo. Most people don't keep track of losses most of the time so even if 15 Chansey's flee'd from them and they caught one they say: "Wow! This Bait-ball combo really works!". It's no different than a gambler using the Martingale system of betting. The only difference is technically Bait-ball does have an slight advantage statistically, but it's just not efficiently and realistically better than Ball-ball for under 30k encounters or so. 

You're probably right about the placebo effect though.

But some people here actually keep track of the losses. Maybe we're just lucky, but numbers doesn't lie (Unless the info from the wiki is false.. lol).

It's the best method we got so far.