Of the Safari Zone (Or, curse you Chansey!): A strategy guide

[Cubes]

"With this adjusted for being unable to predict the exact endtime of eating, the chances are 11.61% and 10.67%, making baiting about 8.9% more effective for catching Chansey."

(using basic probability and the catch rates using bait/balls according to Bulba)

http://bulbapedia.bu...dix:Repel_trick

I'm pretty sad that repel doesn't work for fishing.

How did you calculate these percentages? Just curious.

And that page doesn't answer my question with the repel trick. Let me try to explain it better.

Let's say I run into 10 pokemon, the tenth pokemon being chansey. All the previous 9 pokemon were level 25 or below. Let's say you encounter the first pokemon at step 5 and chansey (the 10th pokemon) at step 200. My question is this- if you had used repel, would you have encountered chansey at step 5, or step 200? I.E. does an encounter proc first, and then pokemon are decided/eliminated by repel, or is the pokemon chosen first, and if repel would eliminate said pokemon, the encounter doesn't proc? If it's the first way, repel helps. If it's the second, repel doesn't.

[Reazh]

How did you calculate these percentages? Just curious.

And that page doesn't answer my question with the repel trick. Let me try to explain it better.

Let's say I run into 10 pokemon, the tenth pokemon being chansey. All the previous 9 pokemon were level 25 or below. Let's say you encounter the first pokemon at step 5 and chansey (the 10th pokemon) at step 200. My question is this- if you had used repel, would you have encountered chansey at step 5, or step 200? I.E. does an encounter proc first, and then pokemon are decided/eliminated by repel, or is the pokemon chosen first, and if repel would eliminate said pokemon, the encounter doesn't proc? If it's the first way, repel helps. If it's the second, repel doesn't.

Well I think that using repel will not ecounter chansey at step 5 like you said, its just saving time avoiding other wild pokes below lead-pokemon-team level.

Im not sure... but it should work in that way....

EDIT: Thanks to PureDeath, you can also use Cleanse Tag instead of repels... it saves a lot of money ;)

[Puredeath]

On the topic of repel, I haven't had a chance to test it yet. I'm going to try it with a cleansing tag (found in Pokemon tower) instead of repels to save money. But my theory is that: Using a lvl 26 Pokemon will repel any pokemon lower than 26 witch means the more common Pokemon you won't encounter, it will still take as many steps to find the rarer ones. So more steps to have an encounter, but when u encounter a Pokemon theres a greater chance of it being a rarer Pokemon. So basically it saves real time by keeping Pokemon u don't want away. Not really making it quicker on running into rare Pokemon.

EDIT: welp looks like Reazh beat me to it, we were talking about it in game

[Puredeath]

Well I think that using repel will not ecounter chansey at step 5 like you said, its just saving time avoiding other wild pokes below lead-pokemon-team level.

Im not sure... but it should work in that way....

EDIT: Thanks to PureDeath, you can also use Cleanse Tag instead of repels... it saves a lot of money ;)

Testing the cleanse tag on my lvl 25 jolteon and ran into a lvl 23 Pkm apears as the tag doesn't work

[heated]

Testing the cleanse tag on my lvl 25 jolteon and ran into a lvl 23 Pkm apears as the tag doesn't work

The tag just lowers the chance of encounter. It's like a permanent lame Repel.

[heated]

How did you calculate these percentages? Just curious.

I took Izzet's graph and modified it with the extra turn of balling when you didn't know that the Chansey had stopped eating.

Then I summed the series.

Let's say I run into 10 pokemon, the tenth pokemon being chansey. All the previous 9 pokemon were level 25 or below. Let's say you encounter the first pokemon at step 5 and chansey (the 10th pokemon) at step 200. My question is this- if you had used repel, would you have encountered chansey at step 5, or step 200? I.E. does an encounter proc first, and then pokemon are decided/eliminated by repel, or is the pokemon chosen first, and if repel would eliminate said pokemon, the encounter doesn't proc? If it's the first way, repel helps. If it's the second, repel doesn't.

Step 200, but pokemon battles take a lot longer than steps, (especially if you're biking) so repels are pretty effective in shortening the average time it takes to get a Chansey.

[Cubes]

I took Izzet's graph and modified it with the extra turn of balling when you didn't know that the Chansey had stopped eating.

Then I summed the series.

Ok, I see where you're getting it from. I don't think it would be that useful though. What's the point of calculating to ball 30? I'd rather see the probability on the average type of encounter i.3. what happens at 50%. You can expect to catch 1 chansey per 12 encounters with bait-ball, as opposed to 1 chansey per 14 encounters with just balls.

Step 200, but pokemon battles take a lot longer than steps, (especially if you're biking) so repels are pretty effective in shortening the average time it takes to get a Chansey.

I will add this, because people might not know exactly how it works. Thanks for the contributions.

[Hermes]

I can confirm that the level 26 lead + max repel method is strangely working.

3 chansey encounters and 1 tauros that run.

[someone]

Following the advice, I got a lvl. 23 Scyther as the front, some max repels, and went at it. Catching was basically bait then spam balls until it stops eating, and bait and so on.

Not quite raking in the Chanseys, but got 3 Pinsirs in 10 minutes, so that's some progress compared to 1 weekend for a scyther with shit nature.

[spacefalcon]

Okay so from what I understand, ball/ball is better. And using a level 26 pokemon with sufficent speed to run away from wild pokemon. Should be the best/fastest way.

But what about using a butterfree with Compoundeyes to increase the chance of chanseys holding lucky eggs?

[Kitsu]

4-5 chancys and not one captured......

I think I was hunting the same one that ranway so really I found the same chancy 4-5 times lol Still BS that i couldn't catch one. :(

[Cubes]

Following the advice, I got a lvl. 23 Scyther as the front, some max repels, and went at it. Catching was basically bait then spam balls until it stops eating, and bait and so on.

Not quite raking in the Chanseys, but got 3 Pinsirs in 10 minutes, so that's some progress compared to 1 weekend for a scyther with shit nature.

You're in the wrong area, and you should use a level 26.

Okay so from what I understand, ball/ball is better. And using a level 26 pokemon with sufficent speed to run away from wild pokemon. Should be the best/fastest way.

But what about using a butterfree with Compoundeyes to increase the chance of chanseys holding lucky eggs?

Bait-ball is better, compound eyes is not implemented like that yet I don't think.

[xIamAxel]

OP is correct and this is why:

Notes: The chance of catching a Chansey within 3 balls is roughly the same using Balls only as it is using Bait and 4 balls. Once you start running out of Safari balls it is therefore recommended to only use Balls.

This is assuming the escape and catch chances in OP are accurate.

Also assuming bait always lasts 4 turns. It is 2-6, so taking the average should be accurate.

Lol i just looked at the percentages at the bottom :P

[someone]

You're in the wrong area, and you should use a level 26.

Probably should have noted that I was aiming for scythers at the time (hence the scyther as a front). I'll try again with a lv. 26, though.

[jupsto]

I dont think that % chart is true I just threw bait at a chansey and it fled so.. yeah.

[someone]

I dont think that % chart is true I just threw bait at a chansey and it fled so.. yeah.

Yeah one incident totally proves everything wrong. Fleeing cannot be accounted for, since it's based on a different system that revolves around a randomly given number, so we can't calculate for it. At best, it factors in how many balls you can throw at it before it flees, and again, that's if we're given this number (which they don't). The chart here is to demonstrate what method yields the highest probability of catching if we were to use all 30 balls, and does not flee.

[Atuan]

The OP has errors and the math is based on nothing.

The repel method works wonders, albeit being rather expensive.

Here's my math instead:

Bait: 1%

Balls only: 74%

Wow, balls are better.

[xIamAxel]

The OP has errors and the math is based on nothing.

The repel method works wonders, albeit being rather expensive.

Here's my math instead:

Bait: 1%

Balls only: 74%

Wow, balls are better.

I dont know if you've ever tried to catch a Chansey, but I can tell you from Experience not math that bait followed by balls are better.

[MrMasonMan]

...

[Cubes]

The OP has errors and the math is based on nothing.

The repel method works wonders, albeit being rather expensive.

Here's my math instead:

Bait: 1%

Balls only: 74%

Wow, balls are better.

Ah, well I guess that's that. /thread

[Saline]

[Comment Removed by Saline]

[heated]

Ok, I see where you're getting it from. I don't think it would be that useful though. What's the point of calculating to ball 30? I'd rather see the probability on the average type of encounter i.3. what happens at 50%. You can expect to catch 1 chansey per 12 encounters with bait-ball, as opposed to 1 chansey per 14 encounters with just balls.

Um, those probabilities ARE 'what happens 50%' of the time. The chance of getting to turn 30 is insanely small, so you multiply that chance by the chance of catching the chansey that turn. That's how probability works. What are you talking about here with this? In order to calculate the average type of encounter, you have to take into account ALL the math, not just "only the math under 30 turns", Also those probabilities are taken out to 37 turns, not 30. (at which point you run out of safari balls) The point of calculating beyond ball 30 is summing the series, which is a very simple and accurate way of giving the most accurate probability possible given the formulas. Hell, even before ball 30 the probabilities are still close to the same values, which are still different from your original values.

Again, please modify the original post with the more accurate probabilities.

[heated]

The OP has errors and the math is based on nothing.

The repel method works wonders, albeit being rather expensive.

Here's my math instead:

Bait: 1%

Balls only: 74%

Wow, balls are better.

Hi.

Nice troll poast.

[IzzetGuildmage]

(...) I would also like to thank IzzetGuildMage for his nice chart

No problem :) although it seems to be faulty...

This

Ooh, nice resource. It's the first that mentions an escape rate different from the catch rate. This may enable more accurate calculations, once I figure it out. However the format is a little confusing and once again I don't know the source (what are the numbers based on? Did he hack a rom and look at the numbers, or is he just grasping straws and quoting Bulbapedia and other random sites on the blogoblag?).

IzzetGuildmage's chart also doesn't assume the turn bait is eaten counts as one of the bait turns. (his assumed average is thus 5 turns of eating)

Oops.

Also, while Bubblepedia says that catch rate halves and resets when they stop eating, the previous link says that catch rate halves permanently but not to less than g=3. That would mean that for Chansey, (g=2) throwing bait does not decrease catch rate.

This is the part that makes me question the site, as from empirical evidence we can derive that bait does severely punish the chances of catching the pink blob.

If Bubblepedia is correct about the catch factor, Izzet's chart would be modified to account for the 55% stay factor on each turn just before a bait.

If upokecenter is correct, the chart would still have to be modified for the 55% stay factor when not eating, but all catch chances would be the same as if not baiting. (making Bait the obvious choice)

If by some chance escape is calculated before your choice each turn, 55% stay factors would have to go on the bait turns, too.

Chanseys haven't been escaping more often after throwing bait, suggesting the "stay factor," well, stays the same during the turn bait is thrown. That's purely feeling, though. I can try and pay attention to whether or not Chansey flees more often on the first turn, when bait is used.

I wish I could intelligently contribute to this discussion, but I didn't take statistics. (I wish I did).

Plenty of free statistics courses are out there on the internet. Try it, statistics are fun (and you'll impress people, who usually suck at it :P)!

Let's say I run into 10 pokemon, the tenth pokemon being chansey. All the previous 9 pokemon were level 25 or below. Let's say you encounter the first pokemon at step 5 and chansey (the 10th pokemon) at step 200. My question is this- if you had used repel, would you have encountered chansey at step 5, or step 200? I.E. does an encounter proc first, and then pokemon are decided/eliminated by repel, or is the pokemon chosen first, and if repel would eliminate said pokemon, the encounter doesn't proc? If it's the first way, repel helps. If it's the second, repel doesn't.

I strongly think it's the second. Have you tried cycling up and down Diglett's cave with a level 25 pokemon and a max repel? You only encounter Dugtrio, but because you encounter so many more Diglett after X steps who are then cancelled, you usually run out of repel before encountering a single Dugtrio! Still worth it because you save the time it costs to start a battle and flee it.

Lol i just looked at the percentages at the bottom :P

That's exactly why I highlighted them :P I was trying to be helpful to people who could easily grasp what I did in Excel, but also to the occasional passerby who just wanted to know which method is better ;)

The first chart has been modified to take in account the actual average amount of turns bait lasts. I would like to know how someone made it to 11%, could you also post your calculations? The middle chart is the classic balls-only method, a method where the only advantage is being easier to calculate the (lower) odds. The last chart reveals the odds when bait takes effect the turn after it's thrown, which would make bait absolutely pointless as you can see.

[IzzetGuildmage]

To continue on the source by heated:

At the beginning of each turn (before commands are chosen), X is calculated as follows:

• If the Pokémon "is eating", then X equals (escaperate * 100 / 1275) / 4, but not less than 0.
  
• Otherwise, X equals (escaperate * 100 / 1275).
  

Then, a random number from 0 through 99 is determined. If that number is less than 5 times X, the Pokémon will run at the end of that turn.

Each division mentioned above is rounded down.

The escape rates are:

<snip>

125 - Chansey

125 * 100 / 1275 = 9,80, rounded down to 9.

9 / 4 = 2,25, rounded down to 2.

5 * 2 = 10.

So 100-(10+1)=89% chance of escaping. This is probably the source OP used. It seems realistic, but once again fails to mention a source =/