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Proof that the optimal Safari Zone strategy is to throw balls every turn


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3 minutes ago, EssDeeCee said:

Interesting read. The downfall is that this is that it goes so far over the heads of the community who can't even figure out a basic percentage.

While definitely true, there isn't a much simpler method of proving this. I included the "simple explanation" in Section 2.1, so maybe if someone's not too well versed in probability theory, they can understand that non-rigorous reasoning.

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It makes me wonder why these features are even implemented in the game. If they're not actually serving a purpose, why have they been here since Generation 1? Did the formulas change over the years, or is it a PokeMMO thing? Please elaborate on your data points and where it was gathered from.

 

Also, at the start, you assume the player has infinite Pokeballs. What if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left? What should they do then, if they've only got the 1 shot? 

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15 minutes ago, Kiralexis said:

It makes me wonder why these features are even implemented in the game. If they're not actually serving a purpose, why have they been here since Generation 1? Did the formulas change over the years, or is it a PokeMMO thing? Please elaborate on your data points and where it was gathered from.

 

Also, at the start, you assume the player has infinite Pokeballs. What if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left? What should they do then, if they've only got the 1 shot? 

- The Safari Zone did have a lot of changes over the generations, check the various links on this side: https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Safari_Zone As far as I know, the current mechanics that are in PokeMMO are a simplified version of the Generation 4 mechanics.

- It is a valid critique of my method that I ingored the fact that the player could run out of balls. It could definitely happen that the player is very low on balls, is unlikely to catch the Pokémon because of this, so throwing a Rock would be beneficial to raise the catch rate. However that analysis is suddenly way-WAY more complicated, as not only do we need to modify the infinite graph to one that has a given length (the number of balls the player has remaning), suddenly mixed strategies become viable - after using some Safari Balls that don't catch, maybe it's better to throw a Rock so that the catch rate increases. If I have time, I will try to do a full analysis on that, but that would be like 3-4 times longer.

- As for the exact question on "What to do if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left", I believe the answer depends on the catch rate and flee rate, and I would need to calculate that.

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2 hours ago, Quakkz said:

Mfw people put more effort in proving catch rates than I did in my bachelor thesis

This was probably the guy's dissertation project for his maths degree at uni - either way I'm impressed

Edited by Imperial
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Hey, I really appreciate all of the work you did on this! Having said that, it's possible that the assumptions we've made are naive in terms of the mechanics of the balls and baits. A fairly detailed document has been produced on the matter, and since the game uses Safari Zone mechanics from FireRed (as far as I know), it's likely that it will be applicable to our use case:
https://www.docdroid.net/Tx5NbeU/safari-zone-research-pdf

 

Let me know your thoughts on this and the optimum play patterns they describe!

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5 hours ago, DamianTe said:

Hey, I really appreciate all of the work you did on this! Having said that, it's possible that the assumptions we've made are naive in terms of the mechanics of the balls and baits. A fairly detailed document has been produced on the matter, and since the game uses Safari Zone mechanics from FireRed (as far as I know), it's likely that it will be applicable to our use case:
https://www.docdroid.net/Tx5NbeU/safari-zone-research-pdf

 

Let me know your thoughts on this and the optimum play patterns they describe!

That study looks fascinating! I've only skimmed though it so far, I'll read it in detail soon.

I was wondering, do we actually have an official confirmation that the PokeMMO Safari mechanics work with the Kanto method?

Since then my calculations wouldn't be applicible for the game. (Though they're still true if we assume what's described in Section 1.2.)

 

Edit: It seems that the study acknowledges that it's outdated, since it says "The Safari Game mechanics were overhauled to more closely resemble the one in the Hoenn Safari Zone." Though I'm still not sure if that's how PokeMMO works.

Edited by Atricos
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I might be saying something stupid here and probably completely wrong, but isn't it true that the part of eating the bait has nothing to do with the percentages? And the pokemon won't flee while eating it? And if so, did you factored those extra poke balls you get to throw meanwhile? 

 

Again, this mechanic is probably only in my head and not true at all xD

 

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

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