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[Fun]Shiny Simulate


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A long time ago, some players suggested that I do a shiny simulation function. At that time, I was busy with the realization of other functions and didn't plan to do it. Recently, some players suggested again that its Chinese New Year now, so I have some time to do it. I'm very happy to be officially launched with you today. Now let me introduce the shiny simulator in detail.

 

link:https://www.noseblue.cn/#/ShinySimulate

 

1.Confrim the location params

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a.swtich the language frist,its Chinese in default

b.fill up the params,the location(like 117 route Hoenn),the site(grass,surfing,cave,inside,etc),the time(Whole day,Morning,Day,Night,etc),the season(Whole season,winter only,except winter),hunting way(single,hordes x3,hordes x5),use repel?check the checkbox and write the level of your head pokemon of the team.

c.just create pokemon list that you can meet with these params,there will be alert to warn you if pokemon list is null.

 

2.Check the pokemon list

230 route Sinnoh,Grass,Whole Day,All Season,Single,No Repel as Example

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yeah,thats right,i am going to find a shiny togekiss,cool!

a.if you find the pokemon list is wrong,click the button of ReCreatePokemonList.And there are some limits,as we know,there are different pokemons in different floors if the location is a mutiple floor map,but the data staffs support me cant distinguish details like this,So some places may not seem close enough to reality.

b.weight:we know pokemon has its rarity,its showed by description like very rare,rare,not common,common,very common,so i need to add a weight for each case,the weight i design is:very rare 1%;rare 5%;not common 15%;common 40%;very common 60%,but there are also some limits for the data design,there are no weights for hordes but we all know there are,Sigilyph Hordes x3 for example.

 

3.shiny simulation params

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a.shinyrate:use donator?use shiny charm?No Need to a Shiny Hunter Veteran!(i will check them later...),and the shiny rate will change as soon as you check.

b.join in the statictis?if you want your simulation result to be found in History List,you can check it and you need to fill the ign input,i suggest guys that write the real ign,but not real is also ok as long  as it obeys the rules.And if you dont join in the statictis,the ign will be filled as "游客/Guest".

c.History List ranking rules:Number of the shinys > Hunting Way(single > x3 > x5) >Hunting Times(the less the better) >Shiny Rate(the less the better),ok, you may notice the number of shinys,yes,the shiny simulationg can also simulate the mutiple shinys in hordes simulation,but i think its hard sooooooooo much even if in the simulation,you can try it.

 

4.lets do it,Shiny Simulate!

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no shiny togekiss?oh no,actually its hard right?that also means the simulation is very realistic.There are many message for you to check,and there are three times simulation each day each player.

And the max simulation times is 200k,if simulate over 200k and no shiny found,there will be a special way to record.From the theoretical probability point of view, when the shiny probability is 1/30k, the probability model of quadratic distribution (calculated approximately by Poisson formula) is more than 60% for hunting about 30k times, 96% for hunting 100k times and 99% for hunting 200k times.

We can check the History List now:

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what the hell?520 hunting times for a shiny?so cool.

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thats a pretty emm bad luck..and good news is its just a simulation lol.

 

5.Anyway,its just for fun,don't care too much about that.if you are not so lucky here,i believe that good luck will come soon in your game,if you are lucky here,i wish you luckier in game!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by BlueNose
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2021-02-18 Update

1.fix the bug when players choose the time param,for example, Farfetch’d is in route 13(knato) and the time is Morning&Day,but only selecting the option Morning&Day that can find it in the pokemon list,we can find it also in Morning or Day of time param,so it needs to be repaired.

2.remove the limit of creating pokemon list after you simulate 3 times,i think its good for players to search the pokemon-location data.

3.add Zorua's location:hordes x3 in Lostlorn Forest. and reset the weight espeically for Zorua x3 in Lostlorn Forest and Sigilyph x3 in Desert Resort,they are weighted as rare 5%,and for other hordes x3 and hordes x5 are weighted as very common 70%.

4.if you find speical hordes like Zorua x3 or Sigilyph x3 ,you can tell me here or anywhere,although its hard to redesign the pokemon-location datastruct to show this detail,i can do a special judegment for them when creating pokemon list.

Edited by BlueNose
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25 minutes ago, N3L0 said:

Oh god... might getting a shiny rapidash at ~100k encounters. :D

 

Screenshot 2021-02-18 141348.jpg

 

PS: Remove the limit. That's my suggestion. 

Hi,thank you for sharing,i am not good at english lol,can you tell me more details about what the limit means?

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5 minutes ago, BlueNose said:

2021-02-18 Update

1.fix the bug when players choose the time param,for example, Farfetch’d is in route 13(knato) and the time is Morning&Day,but only selecting the option Morning&Day that can find it in the pokemon list,we can find it also in Morning or Day of time param,so it needs to be repaired.

2.remove the limit of creating pokemon list after you simulate 3 times,i think its good for players to search the pokemon-location data.

3.add Zorua's location:hordes x3 in Lostlorn Forest. and reset the weight espeically for Zorua x3 in Lostlorn Forest and Sigilyph x3 in Desert Resort,they are weighted as rare 5%,and for other hordes x3 and hordes x5 are weighted as very common 70%.

4.if you find speical hordes like Zorua x3 or Sigilyph x3 ,you can tell me here or anywhere,although its a little bit hard to redesign the pokemon-location datastruct to show this detail,i can do a special judegment for them when creating pokemon list.

misoperate the edit and quote lol

5.remove the Sigilyphx3 in Desert Resort  in Histroy List , they are updated for weight.Is a new Challenge to hunt a shiny Sigilyph in Desert Resort xd

Edited by BlueNose
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3 hours ago, BlueNose said:

Hi,thank you for sharing,i am not good at english lol,can you tell me more details about what the limit means?

Thanks for the response, and also I'm not good at English and grammar as well.

 

I'm using this for reference purposes (despite its a simulation). And I was looking for more, but I notice that there is a limited use of a program/simulation, like 3 uses (above the summary results) and its over. Is there a reason why? And because of limited usage of the program, can I use it on the next day?

 

PS: I'm not an IT expert but this program/simulation is very good. :)

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1 hour ago, N3L0 said:

Thanks for the response, and also I'm not good at English and grammar as well.

 

I'm using this for reference purposes (despite its a simulation). And I was looking for more, but I notice that there is a limited use of a program/simulation, like 3 uses (above the summary results) and its over. Is there a reason why? And because of limited usage of the program, can I use it on the next day?

 

PS: I'm not an IT expert but this program/simulation is very good. :)

Every day every player(based on ip) has 3 times to sumilate,the reset time is 4am UTC+8.

As for reference purposes,i would say sorry about it,please dont use it as a reference,there is a long article about it.

We all know that the probability of a coin toss appearing in both sides is almost 50%,From the observations, that's true,From the formula, there is also reasoning, that is, the limit of frequency is probability.BUT i would say it important that it is very difficult to infer principles from phenomena because we must find the effective factors first.Take the coin model for example,Although the probability of both sides is almost 50%,but the real effective factors to make a influence are might be angle of throw,power of throw,the coin params it self.

Back to pokemmo shiny system,we need to find out which params really decide the shiny and then make a probability model of it and finally come to a conclusion.Its forward reasoning and its not so hard. Deduce principle from phenomenon is reverse reasoning and thats what we do nows,and we are stopped by finding out the real effective params.Many great principles of nature have been discovered, and they have been proved by innumerable reverse inferences. They benefit human beings.But we dont need to spend so much time figuring out how shiny system works in pokemmo,shiny pokemon is not only about your dream,your luck,your hard work,but also,more about ecnomy in game.DEVs and Staffs wont tell you much.

So,how is my simulator works?

Firstly, i will check the shinyrate, take 1/30k as example,i now get a init seed whos value is 30k.Then,i will check the way you hunting,if you hunt in sinlge, there will be 1 pokemon random seed under the init seed and 1 shiny pokemon random seed under the init seed,if the pokemon random seed equals the shiny pokemon random seed,that means you hunt a shiny.For the hordes x3 or x5,there will be the same number of hordes' pokemon random seed under the init seed, and 1 shiny pokemon random seed under init seed,if the shiny pokemon random seed equals any of the pokemon random seeds,you hunt a shiny in hordes,if the equal number is  more than 1,you hunt shinys in hordes.

Is the shiny system in pokemmo close to my simulator?Definately Not!The number of effective factors might be beyond your imagination.

And will players influence each other when hunting shinys?Makde a probability model and then determine this.But how can we make it?

At last,i tittle it 'fun' and push the 'fun' before the 'simulate',i want guys just to enjoy the fun of shiny,the fun of sharing,but not the simulation of shiny which is not real.But fun is real.

 

 

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9分钟前,Faka 说:

Thanks for this! This keeps me motivated
I have a question, "strange number" means hunting times (or encounters)?
I leave a photo

Screenshot_14.png

Hi,thank you for sharing,the number of 8305 means the total hunting times and there is a radio for you to translate into English

 

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oh i find some mistakes,SingleRate should be ShinyRate lol

Edited by BlueNose
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  • 2 years later...

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