Galekingex Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) IV’s is determinate between 0 and 31, so there is 32 possibilities for each stat. 32^6 = 1 073 741 824 combinations of different pokemon IV's. Chance to get a 6*31 wild catch: 31 31 31 31 31 31 There is just one combination with theses IV’s, so the probability is 1 / 1 073 741 824. The probability to catch a 6*0 wild pokemon is the same, 1 / 1 073 741 824. Chance to get a 5*31 wild catch: X 31 31 31 31 31 31 X 31 31 31 31 31 31 X 31 31 31 31 31 31 X 31 31 31 31 31 31 X 31 31 31 31 31 31 X Considering X could be between 0 and 30, there is 31 possibilities for each case. 6 * 31 = 186. 1 073 741 824 / 186 ≈ 5 772 806. The probability to catch a 5*31 wild pokemon is approximately 1 / 5 772 806. Chance to get a 4*31 wild catch: X X 31 31 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 31 X 31 31 X 31 31 X 31 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 31 31 X 31 X X 31 31 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 31 X 31 31 X 31 31 X 31 31 31 X 31 31 X X 31 31 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 31 X 31 31 X 31 31 31 X X 31 31 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 31 31 X X Considering X could be between 0 and 30, there is 31*31 = 961 possibilities for each case. 15 * 961 = 14 415. 1 073 741 824 / 14 415 ≈ 74 488. The probability to catch a 4*31 wild pokemon is approximately 1 / 74 488. Chance to get a 3*31 wild catch: X X X 31 31 31 X X 31 X 31 31 X X 31 31 X 31 X X 31 31 31 X X 31 X X 31 31 X 31 X 31 X 31 X 31 X 31 31 X X 31 31 X X 31 X 31 31 X 31 X X 31 31 31 X X 31 X X X 31 31 31 X X 31 X 31 31 X X 31 31 X 31 X 31 31 X X 31 X 31 X X 31 31 X 31 X 31 X 31 31 X X X 31 31 31 X X 31 X 31 31 X 31 X X 31 31 31 X X X Considering X could be between 0 and 30, there is 31*31*31 = 29 791 possibilities for each case. 20 * 29 791 = 595 820. 1 073 741 824 / 595 820 ≈ 1 802. The probability to catch a 3*31 wild pokemon is approximately 1 / 1 802. Chance to get a 2*31 wild catch: 31 31 X X X X 31 X 31 X X X 31 X X 31 X X 31 X X X 31 X 31 X X X X 31 X 31 31 X X X X 31 X 31 X X X 31 X X 31 X X 31 X X X 31 X X 31 31 X X X X 31 X 31 X X X 31 X X 31 X X X 31 31 X X X X 31 X 31 X X X X 31 31 Considering X could be between 0 and 30, there is 31*31*31*31 = 923 521 possibilities for each case. 15 * 923 521 = 13 852 815. 1 073 741 824 / 13 852 815 ≈ 78. The probability to catch a 2*31 wild pokemon is approximately 1 / 78. Chance to get a 1*31 wild catch: 31 X X X X X X 31 X X X X X X 31 X X X X X X 31 X X X X X X 31 X X X X X X 31 Considering X could be between 0 and 30, there is 31*31*31*31*31 = 28 629 151 possibilities for each case. 6 * 28 629 151 = 171 774 906. 1 073 741 824 / 171 774 906 ≈ 6,25. The probability to catch a 1*31 wild pokemon is approximately 1 / 6,25. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After this, i decided to calculate the probability for every sum of possible IV. It would take 10000 years to do it by myself, so I made a little program in C++ which will do this in 3 seconds. The program: And the result of the program: Total IV : Number of combination 0 : 1 1 : 6 2 : 21 3 : 56 4 : 126 5 : 252 6 : 462 7 : 792 8 : 1287 9 : 2002 10 : 3003 11 : 4368 12 : 6188 13 : 8568 14 : 11628 15 : 15504 16 : 20349 17 : 26334 18 : 33649 19 : 42504 20 : 53130 21 : 65780 22 : 80730 23 : 98280 24 : 118755 25 : 142506 26 : 169911 27 : 201376 28 : 237336 29 : 278256 30 : 324632 31 : 376992 32 : 435891 33 : 501906 34 : 575631 35 : 657672 36 : 748642 37 : 849156 38 : 959826 39 : 1081256 40 : 1214037 41 : 1358742 42 : 1515921 43 : 1686096 44 : 1869756 45 : 2067352 46 : 2279292 47 : 2505936 48 : 2747591 49 : 3004506 50 : 3276867 51 : 3564792 52 : 3868326 53 : 4187436 54 : 4522006 55 : 4871832 56 : 5236617 57 : 5615966 58 : 6009381 59 : 6416256 60 : 6835872 61 : 7267392 62 : 7709856 63 : 8162176 64 : 8623146 65 : 9091452 66 : 9565682 67 : 10044336 68 : 10525836 69 : 11008536 70 : 11490732 71 : 11970672 72 : 12446566 73 : 12916596 74 : 13378926 75 : 13831712 76 : 14273112 77 : 14701296 78 : 15114456 79 : 15510816 80 : 15888642 81 : 16246252 82 : 16582026 83 : 16894416 84 : 17181956 85 : 17443272 86 : 17677092 87 : 17882256 88 : 18057726 89 : 18202596 90 : 18316102 91 : 18397632 92 : 18446736 93 : 18463136 94 : 18446736 95 : 18397632 96 : 18316102 97 : 18202596 98 : 18057726 99 : 17882256 100 : 17677092 101 : 17443272 102 : 17181956 103 : 16894416 104 : 16582026 105 : 16246252 106 : 15888642 107 : 15510816 108 : 15114456 109 : 14701296 110 : 14273112 111 : 13831712 112 : 13378926 113 : 12916596 114 : 12446566 115 : 11970672 116 : 11490732 117 : 11008536 118 : 10525836 119 : 10044336 120 : 9565682 121 : 9091452 122 : 8623146 123 : 8162176 124 : 7709856 125 : 7267392 126 : 6835872 127 : 6416256 128 : 6009381 129 : 5615966 130 : 5236617 131 : 4871832 132 : 4522006 133 : 4187436 134 : 3868326 135 : 3564792 136 : 3276867 137 : 3004506 138 : 2747591 139 : 2505936 140 : 2279292 141 : 2067352 142 : 1869756 143 : 1686096 144 : 1515921 145 : 1358742 146 : 1214037 147 : 1081256 148 : 959826 149 : 849156 150 : 748642 151 : 657672 152 : 575631 153 : 501906 154 : 435891 155 : 376992 156 : 324632 157 : 278256 158 : 237336 159 : 201376 160 : 169911 161 : 142506 162 : 118755 163 : 98280 164 : 80730 165 : 65780 166 : 53130 167 : 42504 168 : 33649 169 : 26334 170 : 20349 171 : 15504 172 : 11628 173 : 8568 174 : 6188 175 : 4368 176 : 3003 177 : 2002 178 : 1287 179 : 792 180 : 462 181 : 252 182 : 126 183 : 56 184 : 21 185 : 6 186 : 1 The sum of all theses numbers is 1 073 741 824, so it works perfectly. Graphics view: probabilty (%) Another graphic view, thanks to the member TohnR for the idea: Edited December 20, 2020 by Galekingex acke, pachima, Beakss and 22 others 23 1 1 Link to comment
Riesz Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 This maybe true but we do not know if it is same probability for each number (0-31) Galekingex 1 Link to comment
Ovale Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Thank you very much my friend. I like the statistics. Muchas gracias mi amigo. Me gustan las estadisticas. Galekingex 1 Link to comment
xenkiller Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Magnifique ! Merci Bro Galekingex 1 Link to comment
Galekingex Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) On 12/8/2020 at 1:48 AM, Riesz said: This maybe true but we do not know if it is same probability for each number (0-31) Thanks for your comment, your right. I think I will probably caught some ditto (like 3000-4000) and check all the IV's to see if the distribution is equal or not ^^ 9 minutes ago, xenkiller said: Magnifique ! Merci Bro De rien ;) On 12/8/2020 at 1:56 AM, Ovale said: Thank you very much my friend. I like the statistics. Muchas gracias mi amigo. Me gustan las estadisticas. Ty :) Edited December 13, 2020 by Galekingex Link to comment
Rache Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) On 12/8/2020 at 11:48 AM, Riesz said: This maybe true but we do not know if it is same probability for each number (0-31) It's the same chance for each number on regular wild encounters. The only rigged encounters are from phenomena, event particle swarms, etc where the chance of a 30-31 is higher. Edited December 14, 2020 by Rache Riesz, lunarace, FinnTheMember and 5 others 5 3 Link to comment
Galekingex Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 hours ago, Rache said: It's the same chance for each number on regular wild encounters. The only rigged encounters are from phenomena, event particle swarms, etc where the chance of a 30-31 is higher. Thanks for the information. Link to comment
FinnTheMember Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nice guide. Wait- this is not guide. awkways and Galekingex 2 Link to comment
Galekingex Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Edit: Added the probability with graphic view for every sum of possible IV (0-186). Link to comment
Poufilou Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Shiny hunters be like : so many 3x31 I've fled from TheFrenchiestFry and Galekingex 2 Link to comment
pachima Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Goddamn this is beautiful. @gbwead I know you like these stuff. Galekingex and TheFrenchiestFry 2 Link to comment
TheFaceGuy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 erm, no one cares? Just go breed a 6x31 if u need one Galekingex 1 Link to comment
Mehagony Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 1:38 AM, Rache said: It's the same chance for each number on regular wild encounters. The only rigged encounters are from phenomena, event particle swarms, etc where the chance of a 30-31 is higher. Is it just 30 and 31? I've gotten way too many 2x0s, so im curious. Galekingex 1 Link to comment
Rache Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, Mehagony said: Is it just 30 and 31? I've gotten way too many 2x0s, so im curious. It's only 30-31. There isn't a higher chance of 0s. Galekingex 1 Link to comment
Mehagony Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Ok ty, so its just by bad luck. FinnTheMember and Galekingex 2 Link to comment
Galekingex Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, pachima said: Goddamn this is beautiful. @gbwead I know you like these stuff. Thank you 55 minutes ago, TheFaceGuy said: erm, no one cares? Just go breed a 6x31 if u need one Thank you for sharing your analysis with us. TBGReFaked, TohnR and TheFrenchiestFry 3 Link to comment
TohnR Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I'd just add that the chance to have : AT LEAST 1*31 when catching a Pokémon would be 6/32 so around 1/5.5 AT LEAST 2*31 when catching would be 15/32² which is around 1/68.5 After all, no one is gonna complain about getting a better result than the goal, so what really matters is the interval not the exact value imo :) Funny sheet tho ! Using your data, we can calculate the chance to have IV in certain ranges IV [0 to 20] = IV [166 to 186] = 230 227 / 1 073 741 824 which approximates to 1/4664 IV [0 to 10] = IV [176 to 186] = 8 005 / 1 073 741 824 which approximates to 1/134k (winning a catch event is much harder than finding a shiny these days kek) JohntheJester, Galekingex and Riesz 3 Link to comment
Galekingex Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 On 12/19/2020 at 7:51 PM, TohnR said: I'd just add that the chance to have : AT LEAST 1*31 when catching a Pokémon would be 6/32 so around 1/5.5 AT LEAST 2*31 when catching would be 15/32² which is around 1/68.5 After all, no one is gonna complain about getting a better result than the goal, so what really matters is the interval not the exact value imo :) Funny sheet tho ! Using your data, we can calculate the chance to have IV in certain ranges IV [0 to 20] = IV [166 to 186] = 230 227 / 1 073 741 824 which approximates to 1/4664 IV [0 to 10] = IV [176 to 186] = 8 005 / 1 073 741 824 which approximates to 1/134k (winning a catch event is much harder than finding a shiny these days kek) Thank you my friend, I had another graphic view with the probability for different intervals. Hope theses data will be useful to you :) TohnR 1 Link to comment
TheFrenchiestFry Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This is beautiful ngl. There's always something about pretty data and RNG being fair that gets me :') TohnR, Obvi and Galekingex 3 Link to comment
Riesz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 7:51 AM, TheFrenchiestFry said: This is beautiful ngl. There's always something about pretty data and RNG being fair that gets me :') SRIF TheFrenchiestFry 1 Link to comment
DEMACY Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 You can use this website https://anydice.com/ and use the command : output 6d{0..31} Go to "export" to show the real values in % and change values for "at least" or "at most". Just go for an 100/value to calculate the probabilities in a 1 to XX encounter format. For people who don't get it, there is the numbers : AT LEAST : 0,100 1,99.99999990686774 2,99.9999993480742 3,99.99999739229679 4,99.99999217689037 5,99.99998044222593 6,99.99995697289705 7,99.9999139457941 8,99.9998401850462 9,99.99972032383084 10,99.9995338730514 11,99.99925419688225 12,99.99884739518166 13,99.99827109277248 14,99.99747313559055 15,99.99639019370079 16,99.9949462711811 17,99.99305112287402 18,99.99059857800603 19,99.9874647706747 20,99.98350627720356 21,99.97855816036463 22,99.97243192046881 23,99.96491335332394 24,99.95576031506062 25,99.94470039382581 26,99.93142848834401 27,99.9156042933465 28,99.8968496918679 29,99.874746054411 30,99.8488314449788 31,99.8185977339745 32,99.7834876179696 33,99.7428921051324 34,99.6961484663189 35,99.6425386518241 36,99.5812881737948 37,99.5115654543043 38,99.4324816390873 39,99.343090876937 40,99.242391064763 41,99.129325058311 42,99.002782348543 43,98.86160120368 44,98.704571276903 45,98.53043667972099 46,98.33789952099299 47,98.12562391161899 48,97.89224043488498 49,97.63635108247398 50,97.35653465613697 51,97.05135263502598 52,96.71935550868498 53,96.35908957570798 54,95.96910420805199 55,95.54795958101698 56,95.09423486888399 57,94.60653690621199 58,94.08350931480499 59,93.52384209632798 60,92.92628169059698 61,92.28964149951898 62,91.61281287670099 63,90.89477658271798 64,90.13461470603998 65,89.33152165263898 66,88.48481420427598 67,87.59394064545698 68,86.65848895907499 69,85.67819409072499 70,84.65294428169499 71,83.58278647064499 72,82.467930763955 73,81.308753974735 74,80.105802230535 75,78.859792649745 76,77.571614086625 77,76.242326945065 78,74.873162060975 79,73.46551865339501 80,72.02096134424501 81,70.54121624678501 82,69.02816612273502 83,67.48384460806501 84,65.91042950749501 85,64.31023515761501 86,62.68570385873501 87,61.03939637541501 88,59.37398150562501 89,57.69222471862501 90,55.99697586148501 91,54.29115593432501 92,52.57774293421501 93,50.85975676773501 94,49.14024323223501 95,47.422257065755005 96,45.708844065645 97,44.003024138485 98,42.307775281345 99,40.626018494345004 100,38.960603624555006 101,37.314296141235005 102,35.689764842355004 103,34.089570492475005 104,32.516155391905 105,30.971833877235003 106,29.458783753185003 107,27.979038655725002 108,26.534481346575003 109,25.126837938995003 110,23.757673054905002 111,22.428385913345004 112,21.140207350225005 113,19.894197769435003 114,18.691246025235003 115,17.532069236015005 116,16.417213529325004 117,15.347055718275003 118,14.321805909245004 119,13.341511040895004 120,12.406059354513003 121,11.515185795694002 122,10.668478347331002 123,9.865385293930002 124,9.105223417252002 125,8.387187123269003 126,7.710358500451003 127,7.073718309373003 128,6.476157903642003 129,5.9164906851650025 130,5.393463093758003 131,4.905765131086003 132,4.452040418953003 133,4.030895791918003 134,3.640910424262003 135,3.280644491285003 136,2.9486473649440033 137,2.6434653438330034 138,2.363648917496003 139,2.107759565085003 140,1.874376088351003 141,1.662100478977003 142,1.469563320249003 143,1.295428723067003 144,1.1383987962900028 145,0.9972176514270028 146,0.8706749416590028 147,0.7576089352070028 148,0.6569091230330028 149,0.5675183608827028 150,0.48843454566570277 151,0.41871182617520275 152,0.35746134814590275 153,0.30385153365110273 154,0.2571078948376027 155,0.2165123820004027 156,0.18140226599550272 157,0.1511685549912027 158,0.1252539455590027 159,0.10315030810210271 160,0.08439570662350271 161,0.06857151162600271 162,0.055299606144202706 163,0.04423968490940271 164,0.03508664664608271 165,0.027568079501212706 166,0.021441839605392705 167,0.016493722766462705 168,0.012535229295312705 169,0.009401421963992705 170,0.006948877096002705 171,0.005053728788912705 172,0.003609806269232705 173,0.0025268643794727048 174,0.0017289071975417048 175,0.0011526047883697048 176,0.0007458030877777048 177,0.00046612691862070476 178,0.0002796761391827048 179,0.00015981492382970478 180,0.00008605417592020478 181,0.00004302707297300478 182,0.000019557744092704782 183,0.000007823079652504783 184,0.0000026076732346547824 185,0.0000026077032089205 186,0.000000000931322574615 AT MOST : 0, 1,0.000000006519258022305 2,0.0000026077032089205 3,0.0000078231096267705 4,0.0000195577740669705 5,0.0000430271029472705 6,0.0000860542058944705 7,0.0001598149538039705 8,0.0002796761691569705 9,0.0004661269485949705 10,0.0007458031177519705 11,0.0011526048183439705 12,0.0017289072275159705 13,0.0025268644094469704 14,0.0036098062992069705 15,0.005053728818886971 16,0.006948877125976971 17,0.009401421993966971 18,0.012535229325286971 19,0.01649372279643697 20,0.02144183963536697 21,0.02756807953118697 22,0.03508664667605697 23,0.04423968493937697 24,0.05529960617417697 25,0.06857151165597697 26,0.08439570665347697 27,0.10315030813207697 28,0.12525394558897696 29,0.15116855502117696 30,0.18140226602547696 31,0.21651238203037695 32,0.25710789486757696 33,0.303851533681077 34,0.357461348175877 35,0.418711826205177 36,0.488434545695677 37,0.567518360912677 38,0.656909123062977 39,0.757608935236977 40,0.8706749416889771 41,0.997217651456977 42,1.138398796319977 43,1.2954287230969772 44,1.4695633202789773 45,1.6621004790069773 46,1.8743760883809772 47,2.107759565114977 48,2.3636489175259774 49,2.643465343862977 50,2.948647364973977 51,3.280644491314977 52,3.640910424291977 53,4.030895791947977 54,4.4520404189829765 55,4.9057651311159765 56,5.393463093787976 57,5.916490685194976 58,6.476157903671976 59,7.073718309402976 60,7.710358500480975 61,8.387187123298975 62,9.105223417281975 63,9.865385293959974 64,10.668478347360974 65,11.515185795723974 66,12.406059354542975 67,13.341511040924976 68,14.321805909274977 69,15.347055718304976 70,16.417213529354974 71,17.532069236044975 72,18.691246025264974 73,19.894197769464974 74,21.140207350254975 75,22.428385913374974 76,23.757673054934976 77,25.126837939024977 78,26.534481346604977 79,27.979038655754977 80,29.458783753214977 81,30.971833877264977 82,32.51615539193498 83,34.08957049250498 84,35.68976484238498 85,37.31429614126498 86,38.960603624584984 87,40.62601849437498 88,42.30777528137498 89,44.00302413851498 90,45.70884406567498 91,47.42225706578498 92,49.140243232264986 93,50.859756767764985 94,52.57774293424499 95,54.29115593435499 96,55.99697586151499 97,57.69222471865499 98,59.37398150565499 99,61.03939637544499 100,62.68570385876499 101,64.31023515764498 102,65.91042950752498 103,67.48384460809498 104,69.02816612276499 105,70.54121624681498 106,72.02096134427498 107,73.46551865342498 108,74.87316206100498 109,76.24232694509497 110,77.57161408665498 111,78.85979264977497 112,80.10580223056498 113,81.30875397476498 114,82.46793076398498 115,83.58278647067498 116,84.65294428172497 117,85.67819409075497 118,86.65848895910497 119,87.59394064548697 120,88.48481420430596 121,89.33152165266897 122,90.13461470606997 123,90.89477658274797 124,91.61281287673097 125,92.28964149954896 126,92.92628169062696 127,93.52384209635797 128,94.08350931483497 129,94.60653690624197 130,95.09423486891397 131,95.54795958104697 132,95.96910420808197 133,96.35908957573797 134,96.71935550871497 135,97.05135263505596 136,97.35653465616696 137,97.63635108250396 138,97.89224043491497 139,98.12562391164897 140,98.33789952102298 141,98.53043667975098 142,98.70457127693298 143,98.86160120370998 144,99.00278234857298 145,99.12932505834098 146,99.24239106479298 147,99.34309087696698 148,99.43248163911728 149,99.51156545433429 150,99.58128817382479 151,99.64253865185408 152,99.69614846634889 153,99.74289210516238 154,99.78348761799958 155,99.81859773400448 156,99.84883144500878 157,99.87474605444099 158,99.89684969189788 159,99.91560429337649 160,99.931428488374 161,99.9447003938558 162,99.9557603150906 163,99.96491335335392 164,99.97243192049879 165,99.97855816039461 166,99.98350627723354 167,99.98746477070469 168,99.99059857803601 169,99.993051122904 170,99.99494627121109 171,99.99639019373078 172,99.99747313562054 173,99.99827109280247 174,99.99884739521164 175,99.99925419691223 176,99.99953387308139 177,99.99972032386083 178,99.99984018507618 179,99.99991394582409 180,99.99995697292704 181,99.99998044225592 182,99.99999217692036 183,99.99999739232678 184,99.99999934810418 185,99.99999990689773 186,100.0000000000 Link to comment
acke Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 The good C++ always serving for everything. Link to comment
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