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PSL XIII - Preliminaries


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6 minutes ago, xMago said:

wait wait wait....

we need calc first.

remember toxicroak +2 in rotom, and when slowbro join in battle, toxicroak are +4 in a turn slowbro use slack off.

then toxicroak +4 atk Adamant (because was more low speed than rotom) vs slowbro.

722a02102ae94ab3993367e768ac4411.png

 

slowbro not is full hp in this moment, and all can see in this calc, was a rol for kill it WITHOUT CRITIC.

+4 252+ Atk Toxicroak Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 176-208 (87.1 - 102.9%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
then guys, this critic not mattered.

Don't forget that we have 70 BP Sucker Punch in PokeMMO, not 80 BP like in BW:

+4 252+ Atk Toxicroak Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 154-182 (76.2 - 90%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

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3 minutes ago, gbwead said:

Don't forget that we have 70 BP Sucker Punch in PokeMMO, not 80 BP like in BW:

+4 252+ Atk Toxicroak Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 154-182 (76.2 - 90%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

fk b/w, right, but then idk if was a rol, we cant see how much life slowbro have in this moment.

Edited by xMago
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44 minutes ago, gbwead said:

Only reason Slowbro didn't win vs Toxicroak is because of the crit. If you consider Blaziken was a better revenge killer than Slowbro, in that case you have to consider that the Sucker Punch from Toxicroak at +2 will be a crit. This means the two options are: 

1) Infernape taking +2 Sucker Punch crit + Higher Recoil Damage; or

2) Infernape taking +4 Sucker Punch + Lower Recoil Damage

 

Therefore option 1 would be a misplay compared to option 2.

I don't think crits should be taken into account as far as a misplay goes.  I think Sweet mentioned it correctly when he said that the best play was to immediately future sight with slowbro rather than slack off.  That Toxicroak shouldn't have gotten to +4 vs Slowbro.  If we're also looking at the crit from the turn or the stage in which it took place, the Slowbro crit took place when Toxicroak was at +4, whereas the Blaziken would've come in when Toxicroak was at +2, and so there was a difference of a turn.

 

44 minutes ago, gbwead said:

I disagree with this. There is no FREE SD against Clefable. Tri Attack Clefable does a good amount + a decent chance to hax. Clefable can Toxic + Protect + Snow Warning + Protect Again, that's a lot of dmg. Clefable can also Encore on the SD turn. Thunder Wave would also be quite crippling.

 

Sacrificing Blaziken to Sucker Punch followed by a Vanilluxe revenge kill means that a Choice Spec Espeon sweeps with Psyshock. 

I think at that point the Clefable revealed that it was Teleport?  It also took damage so you could see that it was of the bulkier variant.  I don't think offensive Clefables would run Teleport, and I don't know if I have seen a Tri Attack Clefable ever.  If it revealed Tri Attack, I would've been caught by surprise because my decisions would've been guided by prior knowledge.  Something like Tri Attack would be unforeseeable, and so I wouldn't call it a misplay.  Nonetheless, if CJ wanted to win, his best option was to SD, because attacking the Clefable right away would've then lost him the game guaranteed.  

 

Also, if Clefable was Tri Attack or Toxic or whatever it was, it would have then explained why Tawla switched it into an Absol.  But given that all it did was Seismic Toss the Absol, it means that his Clefable was incapable of stopping Absol from getting a free SD, which means that his decision did result in Absol getting a free SD against it.

 

I get preserving Blaziken incase it was a Specs Psyshock Espeon in the back, but what was in front of him was an Absol that he couldn't stop from getting a free SD.  He didn't 100% know the Espeon set, but he still chose the 100% loss route by going Clefable against Absol when it wasn't able to stop Absol from SD'ing up.

 

Lotus mentioned another potentially great play which would've been to go to Vanilluxe on the Sucker Punch, thereby preserving the Blaziken.

 

EDIT:  It wasn't Specs Espeon based off the damage it did to Slowbro when it used Signal Beam.

Edited by NikhilR
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9 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

I don't think crits should be taken into account as far as a misplay goes.  I think Sweet mentioned it correctly when he said that the best play was to immediately future sight with slowbro rather than slack off.  That Toxicroak shouldn't have gotten to +4 vs Slowbro.  If we're also looking at the crit from the turn or the stage in which it took place, the Slowbro crit took place when Toxicroak was at +4, whereas the Blaziken would've come in when Toxicroak was at +2, and so there was a difference of a turn.

You are comparing revenge killing with Slowbro vs revenge killing with Blaziken. Slowbro got hit by a crit, so if you want the comparison to be faithful you need to consider Blaziken getting hit by a crit too.

 

9 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

I think at that point the Clefable revealed that it was Teleport?  It also took damage so you could see that it was of the bulkier variant.  I don't think offensive Clefables would run Teleport, and I don't know if I have seen a Tri Attack Clefable ever.  If it revealed Tri Attack, I would've been caught by surprise because my decisions would've been guided by prior knowledge.  Something like Tri Attack would be unforeseeable, and so I wouldn't call it a misplay.  Nonetheless, if CJ wanted to win, his best option was to SD, because attacking the Clefable right away would've then lost him the game guaranteed.  

 

Also, if Clefable was Tri Attack or Toxic or whatever it was, it would have then explained why Tawla switched it into an Absol.  But given that all it did was Seismic Toss the Absol, it means that his Clefable was incapable of stopping Absol from getting a free SD, which means that his decision did result in Absol getting a free SD against it.

 

I get preserving Blaziken incase it was a Specs Psyshock Espeon in the back, but what was in front of him was an Absol that he couldn't stop from getting a free SD.  He didn't 100% know the Espeon set, but he still chose the 100% loss route by going Clefable against Absol when it wasn't able to stop Absol from SD'ing up.

 

Lotus mentioned another potentially great play which would've been to go to Vanilluxe on the Sucker Punch, thereby preserving the Blaziken.

CJ played well with Absol, but that doesn't mean going Clefable is a bad play. If Absol is scared of what Clefable can do to it, it might go for Superpower directly. My point is it's not a misplay to go Clefable there, CJ just won the 50/50 that Tawla was baiting.

Edited by gbwead
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Just now, gbwead said:

You are comparing revenge killing with Slowbro vs revenge killing with Blaziken. Slowbro got crit, so if you want the comparison to be faithful you need to consider Blaziken getting crit too.

There is a difference though because in one situation you're giving an opponent an extra turn to crit.  No one is saying that going to Slowbro was a misplay because of the crit.  It was a misplay because 1) going to Infernape at +2 has much better odds than letting it to go to +4 against Slowbro.  Not only did it crit Slowbro, but it would also have been possible for Toxicroak to then crit Blaziken when it was +4 as well. 

 

The other reason I think going to Slowbro was potentially a misplay is because assuming Slowbro kills Toxicroak, doesn't Absol then get an SD?  It would need to dodge a burn, but if it did so, that too could've been threatening.

 

Just now, gbwead said:

 

CJ played well with Absol, but that doesn't mean going Clefable is a bad play. If CJ is scared of what Clefable can do to it, it might go for Superpower directly. My point is it's not a misplay to go Clefable there, CJ just won the 50/50 that Tawla was baiting.

If CJ went for the Superpower, he 100% lost the game, didn't he?  Because if he superpowers Clefable, then Tawla brings in Vanilluxe, which kills the Absol.  Espy comes in, and then dies to Blaziken.  CJ's best play was to SD, so he should do it even if he feared Clefable had something else.  If Clefable did indeed have something else, then he would've lost in either scenario -> whether he SD'd or Superpowered.  So it was better for him to go with the SD route.

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14 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

There is a difference though because in one situation you're giving an opponent an extra turn to crit.  No one is saying that going to Slowbro was a misplay because of the crit.  It was a misplay because 1) going to Infernape at +2 has much better odds than letting it to go to +4 against Slowbro.  Not only did it crit Slowbro, but it would also have been possible for Toxicroak to then crit Blaziken when it was +4 as well. 

 

The other reason I think going to Slowbro was potentially a misplay is because assuming Slowbro kills Toxicroak, doesn't Absol then get an SD?  It would need to dodge a burn, but if it did so, that too could've been threatening.

You do realise that Tawla got swept by Absol. That's only possible if Blaziken loses HP and that's what happened in the duel because of hax and that is what would happen in your scenario too. It's a terrible play to go Blaziken there. The only way that doesn't happen is if Slowbro beats Toxicroak and that's the play Tawla went for.

 

14 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

If CJ went for the Superpower, he 100% lost the game, didn't he?  Because if he superpowers Clefable, then Tawla brings in Vanilluxe, which kills the Absol.  Espy comes in, and then dies to Blaziken.  CJ's best play was to SD, so he should do it even if he feared Clefable had something else.  If Clefable did indeed have something else, then he would've lost in either scenario -> whether he SD'd or Superpowered.  So it was better for him to go with the SD route.

Not really because we don't know anything about that Espeon. If Espeon is Scarf, it sweeps everything after Absol does Sucker Punch against Vanilluxe. 

Edited by gbwead
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Just now, gbwead said:

You do realise that Tawla got swept by Absol. That's only possible if Blaziken loses HP and that what happened in the duel because of hax and that is what would happen in your scenario too. It's a terrible play to go Blaziken there.

Can you explain to me why going to Blaziken was a terrible play?  I'm sorry but I lost track.  You're focused more on Tawla losing the game nonetheless because of the hax rather than when he could've made more optimal plays to still turn things around.  The reason Tawla got swept by an Absol is because he let it get to +2.  Going to Slowbro / Clefable would've enabled that to happen, which is why he should've made sure that it was always Blaziken / Vanilluxe to face Absol.

 

Just now, gbwead said:

Not really because we don't know anything about that Espeon. If Espeon is Scarf, it sweeps everything after Absol does Sucker Punch against Vanilluxe. 

We definitely know that Espeon isn't Specs because of damage to Slowbro with Signal Beam.

 

If Espeon is Scarf and facing Vanilluxe after it killed Absol, then if Clefable was alive it dealt with it.  Espeon can't trick Vanilluxe as it would be forced to attack.  Clefable can then stall out whatever move it is locked into Psychic or Psyshock.

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15 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

Can you explain to me why going to Blaziken was a terrible play?  I'm sorry but I lost track.  You're focused more on Tawla losing the game nonetheless because of the hax rather than when he could've made more optimal plays to still turn things around.  The reason Tawla got swept by an Absol is because he let it get to +2.  Going to Slowbro / Clefable would've enabled that to happen, which is why he should've made sure that it was always Blaziken / Vanilluxe to face Absol.

It's not an optimized play to go Blaziken though since like you pointed out Slowbro is set up bait for Absol anyways. Slowbro taking out Toxicroak means Blaziken remains full HP and the Absol sweep becomes impossible. Losing HP on Blaziken is what enables Absol to potentially sweep and that's why you should not revenge kill with Blaziken. You also forget that CJ had to win two 50/50 Slack Off vs Sucker Punch to even get in that position, so on top of needing a crit CJ also needed to predict correctly his opponent's moves. If you revenge kill with Blaziken, no prediction is needed and the crit on Blaziken is even more devastating because of the additional recoil.

 

15 minutes ago, NikhilR said:

We definitely know that Espeon isn't Specs because of damage to Slowbro with Signal Beam.

 

If Espeon is Scarf and facing Vanilluxe after it killed Absol, then if Clefable was alive it dealt with it.  Espeon can't trick Vanilluxe as it would be forced to attack.  Clefable can then stall out whatever move it is locked into Psychic or Psyshock.

Oh I probably missed that then. I went through the first part of the duel pretty very quickly.

Edited by gbwead
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5 minutes ago, gbwead said:

It's not an optimized play to go Blaziken though since like you pointed out Slowbro is set up bait for Absol anyways. Slowbro taking about Toxicroak means Blaziken remains full HP and the Absol sweep becomes impossible. Losing HP on Blaziken is what enables Absol to potentially sweep and that's why you should not revenge kill with Blaziken. You also forget that CJ had to win a 50/50 Slack Off vs Sucker Punch to even get in that position, so on top of needing a crit CJ also needed to predict correctly his opponent move. If you revenge kill with Blaziken, no prediction is needed and the crit on Blaziken is even more devastating because of the additional recoil.

I see what you mean now.  I do agree that Blaziken being at full health is what stopped Absol from sweeping by going to Slowbro.  I think it was still the riskier route because you have to win a bunch of 50/50s, as you mentioned, and there is that additional risk of crit happening at a higher attack stage which is far more daunting.  For example, let's stay that Toxicroak didn't crit Slowbro.  He suckered at +4 when Slowbro used Future Sight.  Then he drain punch kills Slowbro.  Then Blaziken comes out for the revenge kill, which is ALSO the turn that Future Sight activates.  That means Toxicroak was always going to either be at +2 (if he future sighed t1) or +4 depending on how Tawla played it out.  So unless Tawla miraculously won a bunch of 50/50s with the Future Sight-Sucker Punch interaction, he was worse off.

 

With that being said, I think going to Clefable against the Absol was a misplay because that became a 100% loss route.

Edited by NikhilR
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8 hours ago, NikhilR said:

I see what you mean now.  I do agree that Blaziken being at full health is what stopped Absol from sweeping by going to Slowbro.  I think it was still the riskier route because you have to win a bunch of 50/50s, as you mentioned, and there is that additional risk of crit happening at a higher attack stage which is far more daunting.  For example, let's stay that Toxicroak didn't crit Slowbro.  He suckered at +4 when Slowbro used Future Sight.  Then he drain punch kills Slowbro.  Then Blaziken comes out for the revenge kill, which is ALSO the turn that Future Sight activates.  Which makes the whole scenario then kind of pointless.

 

With that being said, I think going to Clefable against the Absol was a misplay because that became a 100% loss route.

The major difference is that this scenario creates a 50/50 that benefits Tawla.

 

If Future Sight is not active, Blaziken has to do Flareblitz (recoil dmg) to kill Toxicroak and therefore Toxicroak can simply Sucker Punch it which mean Absol can potentially sweep.

 

If Future Sight is active, Blaziken doesn't have to do Flareblitz, it can do U-Turn. If Toxicroak does Sucker Punch in front of U-Turn, Blaziken stays alive with more HP since no recoil (enough to live crit Sucker Punch from Absol), Toxicroak dies to Future Sight and Vanilluxe comes in play. This is a win for Tawla here. If Toxicroak does Drain Punch in front of U-Turn Blaziken, it's more or less the same situation with Clefable dead. This mean that unless Espeon is scarf, Tawla wins there too.

 

So it's a 50/50 if CJ had a Scarf Espeon and if it wasn't a scarf Espeon that means Tawla wins automatically.

Edited by gbwead
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3 hours ago, xMago said:

wait wait wait....

we need calc first.

remember toxicroak +2 in rotom, and when slowbro join in battle, toxicroak are +4 in a turn slowbro use slack off.

then toxicroak +4 atk Adamant (because was more low speed than rotom) vs slowbro.

722a02102ae94ab3993367e768ac4411.png

 

slowbro not is full hp in this moment, and all can see in this calc, was a rol for kill it WITHOUT CRITIC.

+4 252+ Atk Toxicroak Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 176-208 (87.1 - 102.9%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
then guys, this critic not mattered.

I Remeber toxi was burned vs slowbro Pretti sure

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