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How to calculate the probability of shiny in the game


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every encounter is 1/30k without buffs

 

the probability never changes.

 

ive not gotten a shiny in 400 + hours with 100k + encounters, while some have gotten 2 shines 5 minutes after each other

Edited by Looksitsalex
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There is an equation for the binomial distribution that can give you an idea about the probability of encountering a shiny: shiny percentage = 1-(1-(1/30000))^x where x is the number of encounters.

The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-)
 

Screen Shot 2020-05-26 at 20.44.57.png

Screen Shot 2020-05-26 at 20.45.31.png

Edited by Sethsen
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4 hours ago, Sethsen said:

There is an equation for the binomial distribution that can give you an idea about the probability of encountering a shiny: shiny percentage = 1-(1-(1/30000))^x where x is the number of encounters.

The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-)
 

Screen Shot 2020-05-26 at 20.44.57.png

Screen Shot 2020-05-26 at 20.45.31.png

You're not 62.53% guaranteed to get a shiny after ~26.5k encounters, nor are you 99.999% guaranteed to get a shiny after 300k encounters, as every encounter is an independent roll and doesn't affect the next one. If you do 300k encounters, it's just rolling a 1/27,000 dice 300000 times, assuming you're running donator. I get what you're trying to say, but 1/30000 chance will always be inconsistent over time.

Edited by Dazuzi
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3 hours ago, Sethsen said:

The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-)
 

 

 

i like the pictures you used in your chart

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7 hours ago, Dazuzi said:

You're not 62.53% guaranteed to get a shiny after ~26.5k encounters, nor are you 99.999% guaranteed to get a shiny after 300k encounters, as every encounter is an independent roll and doesn't affect the next one. If you do 300k encounters, it's just rolling a 1/27,000 dice 300000 times, assuming you're running donator. I get what you're trying to say, but 1/30000 chance will always be inconsistent over time.

You are basically saying what I am saying here. This is based on the distribution of how the events would be if let’s say 1 billion people shiny hunted. Some would be in that 62.53% while others are at 99.99%.

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