304106345 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 How to calculate the probability of shining in the game,If you brush it many times, will it be encountered by others gabrielsan1234 1 Link to comment
Looksitsalex Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 (edited) every encounter is 1/30k without buffs the probability never changes. ive not gotten a shiny in 400 + hours with 100k + encounters, while some have gotten 2 shines 5 minutes after each other Edited May 26, 2020 by Looksitsalex Link to comment
Akshit Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 the probability is fair kuplion and GodofKawaii 2 Link to comment
GodofKawaii Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Can confirm that the shiny rate is 1/fair that 30k is just a scary number like in those horror stories that will make you believe the boogeymans in your closet Link to comment
Seth Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 (edited) There is an equation for the binomial distribution that can give you an idea about the probability of encountering a shiny: shiny percentage = 1-(1-(1/30000))^x where x is the number of encounters. The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-) Edited May 26, 2020 by Sethsen kloneman, WildHodor, Revz and 2 others 5 Link to comment
Dazuzi Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, Sethsen said: There is an equation for the binomial distribution that can give you an idea about the probability of encountering a shiny: shiny percentage = 1-(1-(1/30000))^x where x is the number of encounters. The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-) You're not 62.53% guaranteed to get a shiny after ~26.5k encounters, nor are you 99.999% guaranteed to get a shiny after 300k encounters, as every encounter is an independent roll and doesn't affect the next one. If you do 300k encounters, it's just rolling a 1/27,000 dice 300000 times, assuming you're running donator. I get what you're trying to say, but 1/30000 chance will always be inconsistent over time. Edited May 26, 2020 by Dazuzi Minks and awkways 2 Link to comment
Minks Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Sethsen said: The following pictures are an example from my Totodile hunt (1/27000 as I used donator). If I am wrong about this equation etc., I appreciate feedback. :-) i like the pictures you used in your chart Seth 1 Link to comment
Quakkz Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 shiny chance is 50%, either its shiny or not. ez maths TeamRocketHarry, Revz, HumongousNoodle and 4 others 7 Link to comment
Seth Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 7 hours ago, Dazuzi said: You're not 62.53% guaranteed to get a shiny after ~26.5k encounters, nor are you 99.999% guaranteed to get a shiny after 300k encounters, as every encounter is an independent roll and doesn't affect the next one. If you do 300k encounters, it's just rolling a 1/27,000 dice 300000 times, assuming you're running donator. I get what you're trying to say, but 1/30000 chance will always be inconsistent over time. You are basically saying what I am saying here. This is based on the distribution of how the events would be if let’s say 1 billion people shiny hunted. Some would be in that 62.53% while others are at 99.99%. WildHodor and Kupokun 2 Link to comment
Kupokun Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 1/30k raw. 1/27k with donator status. 1/24k with donator & shiny charm. (Not really worthwhile unless hatching eggs, as they’re determined from the egg for shiny) Seth 1 Link to comment
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