Srsly, Math isn't that hard:
Chance for beeing parad = 0.25
30 Turns in a row = 0.25^30 = 8,67*10^-19
about 1 in 1.152.921.504.606.846.976
Edit: My bad, didn't see it was confused too
still, being parad + confused for 30 turns and no attack is
.000 000 752
if you were confused every of those 30 turns.
About 1 in 1.329.228 (~160 times official shiny rate)